The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Mystic, im not pro panr and anti 88. Im simply pro market reality and anti market disreality.
The reality is 88 have 20 billion shares in issue and cannot simply 'take a loanof 200m from a bank'. It doesnt work that way as banks generally want to get their money back with interest and that wont be possible with 88.
The price here will plummet very soon and there will be a lot of bags being held rapidly as the reality of huge capital raise at rock bottom sp looms ever closer, and another 12 months of no drilling in prep for 2025 winter laterals (at HUGE cost).
Anyway. See you back at 0.25-7
MysticMac
Despite 88 anounncing 'oil!' in reality what they have done is simply added free data to PANR who are about 5 years ahead and have one twentieth of the shares in issue.
The market knows that 88 have no chance to develop these assets without raising probably £200m or more over the next few years. There will be no share price left. I would wager that for 88 to raise sufficient capital that the SP would be less than 1/20th of a penny or even less... and the resulting shares issued would be over 100 billion. It cannot and will not happen imho.
The best 88 will get is perhaps a small deal where the acreage gets taken away for peanuts and the bod will do well but shareholders end up holding all the many many bags.
Not a deramp. Just a reality of tight oil.
But good luck all the same.
The SP has not reacted to this 'oil discovery' in the way the many hoped. The market has spoken. Not unexpectedly. And now 2-3 weeks before SMD. Will sell off again to maybe 0.25-7 range... before another mini pump.
As expected, a dribble at best. Less than 25 barrels collected in total as predicted (dont confuse flow rate average with actual product collected). A lot of condensate. 88 being very sneaky with their wording on flow rates.
SMD has already flowed on northern acreage so good chance 88 get another dribble but no guarantee with their downdip dmax, but best of luck with it.
However... the reality is now hitting home that with >20bn shares in issue and everyone wishing to get out at least flat that there will be no significant rise here back to anything like previous years. Lucky to see 0.5 imho
The road ahead is one of dilution and bag holding for PIs regardless of SMD test. These assets wont be commercialised by 88, nor for many many years even in the very best case scenario.
If only folk would wake up and smell the coffee... which smells a lot like bag holding.
By May this is 0.2 range again.
Huge dilution coming.
Laterals needed at huge expense.
IERs, CPRs...
Where are the funds? Yep... huge capital raise under 0.5p
Wont be pretty. Popcorn at the ready for May onwards...
Troughsnout,
Shouldnt you be busy cobbling together another poorly-read hit piece to support your short position? Your desperation ahead of the Kodiak resource upgrade is palpable.
How many views of your 'research' on your website in the end... 20? 30? Pitiful.
Olderwiser took your nonsense apart so convincingly it left little requirement for any other decronstructions.
You best get back to trolling with Josh and Stahel et al.
We all look forward to your next installment of 'research'. Please post a link so we can have some mirth reading it. Thanks.
Well that is a hefty update jam packed full of good reading. Very, very welcome!
BUY.
Many posters are getting upset at some of the more realistic predictions here. No rns amd no flare spotted does heavily suggest thus far that flow has not occurred. This will likely be spun out as 'despite no hydrocarbons to surface we collected invaluable data etc etc' or something simlar along those lines. Often the way.
Still a remote chance that could turn out differently but extremely unlikely. Last opportunity to get out tomorrow before the lock in over long weekend.
Best of luck whichever option anyone chooses.
Baits,
They said they 'look forward to updating the market' on Merlin well rns also, and then rns'd a duster.
Dont read too much into the wording as a positive skew.
Hopefully its good news, but nothing points to that outcome so far.
If this vertical test gets oil to surface it will be a dribble at most, quite literally a matter of a few barrels (i.e. less than 25). No flare on sentinels infra red suggests no flow at any point. The air is full of nitrogen... and hydrocarbons still burn. Which means no gas sufficient for even a small flare.
Im do feel for anyone who has been caught up and didnt sell when it was 0.35p.
Anyway, soon enough. Id rather a good result as it would be beneficial for panr but there we go. Just wont be. SMD might be a slightly different story, but I will wait for 0.1 or below on this likely dud horizon before considering buying the dip for a rebound.
Leaving things to the last minute - NSAI, Finance update - is rarely a good idea. Have the bod not learned this? December 2022 springs to mind!
No news this week would not be well-received at all after everything that has been stated, so will assume this will arrive by Thursday 7am. Perhaps panr simply waiting for 88 to issue their rns - suspect David Hobbs is already drafting a commiserations response for the SFS... was not a bullish rns at all from 88.
We shall see.
NSAI report will be very welcome whenever it arrives. No one can grumble about booking more resource. Imagine sometime in first 2 weeks of April.
Is this same Stratton-Oakmont who doesnt understand the ASX and why the price goes up and down...?
I dont of course need to convince anyone. The bid is 0.27p after the least bullish 88 rns I have read in a long time. Holders are selling off because they already know what I wrote is likely to materialise and are risk-off now.
But, I wish you luck if you hold out to the rns.
*No not Scot. Not Olderwiser. But can see they actually know what they are talking about.
This test is a single vertical hole frac of a downdip section with significantly increased Dmax in a tight formation when compared to the northern acreage of PANR. The chance of having anything more than a few barrels at most is extremely unlikely. People stating hundreds or thousands of barrels from this have less than no understanding of this kind of test. Perhaps go back and read all of PANRs rns for the last 3 or 4 years. That would be a great place to start.
But assume also for a moment that there is in fact a small amount of oil, there are more than 20 BILLION shares in issue here, with most holding bags, and any rise will be sold so hard as to make no headway at all. More bags will be held by end of April.
88 then will have to raise multiple multiple millions of dollars to come back next year to do horizontal completions at huge cost with very little chance of commercial flow rates. I cannot for a second see this happening.
This is unfortunately a share that many will get burned (again) by, as it ever was, and anyone getting caught up in the hype here is going to get very badly stung thinking a stock under a penny can go to the moon because 'under a penny is so cheap'.
PANR are probably 5 years ahead of 88 and even then they still have a few years to go. Regardless, once the 88 rns lands (maybe this week) and everyone sees that 88 is not the cash cow they were hoping for most will head on over to PANR where there are actual prospects and NSAI booked contingent resources > 1bn recoverable with finance pending and FID within 18 months.
Anyway. See you on rns day for SFS. Wont be pretty and reality will set in as usual.
Best of luck to those who are riding this blindly. If Im wrong and folk make dollar then great, just dont expect that to be the case.
As per Rabito
...Ah Troughsnout, the ex 'fund manager' who claims Pantheon have too much gas but will be reliant on buying 'not inexpensive' nitrogen for gas lift.
But who knows maybe his finger in the air flow rate predictions based on his zero years industry experience, minimal knowledge and minimal data will prove right and industry experts at SLB with decades of experience, masses of knowledge and all the data will be wrong.
Always amuses me when the finance guys have a go at the science. Can I get a 'heterolithic'!
Sounds like your short is in a perilous situation. Please do increase it. And then go spend another few weeks coming up with another hit piece no one reads. Joker.
Kasjnaton
21p to 7.75p is 63% down. Even taking pre testing high of 14p to 7.75p is 45% down. Thats not a success, that is a slaughter.
The posters on X and here fail to self-acknowledge their poor calls on prd purely in terms of market cap movements, and rns predictions. And 15% down over 5 years is also not a successful call either. Whichever way you look at it.
Market cap is a rudimentary litmus test at any given point, but very relevant. If prd was the stellar success that some are dressing it up to be the market cap would reflect it. Currently it has become even more highly speculative, especially after the (quite bizare?!) events around 'testing', which appear to yet again not to have been a 'proper' test at all. The recent presentation has added nothing, but has resulted in further lost value due to comments like perhaps 'selling out to private equity', or 'taking eye off the ball' on your supposed company making assett.
Was more bullish originally (and remain so from a resource perspective) and took a longer position with 10-20% gains trading, but seeing how management operate in real time and with a good hindsight view of previous rns I can see why the market has slashed this in half, and why I divested. There is a real possibility that the market cap drops yet further. No cornflakes were choked on. Quite the opposite. Prd simply have not delivered so far.
Also a possible spectre of a placing forming? There have been many of them and I can see more on the horizon if Mou5 is to advance. Again, IF.
Furthermore UK ISAs will sell their losers in next 2 weeks. PRD will sink on that alone as some (maybe many?) 10-14p entry loss makers offset their accounts.
We will likely see lower share price, unless unexpected news lands, which it always could.
My opinion.
The error that Troughsnout/Brevarthan makes is trying to short panr at the wrong time and getting caught in the upwards momentum drag net.
If I had come across this stock when it was 150p and noted it was an AMI pre-production with a £1Bn market cap I think I almost certainly would have taken out a moderate short without even doing more than 10 minutes research.
However, having now read over what is publically available I think now is firstly not the time to be short at all, and secondly that panr have what appear to be ideally placed assets both geographically and politically speaking. With David Hobbs leading the way this is a very different company to the shortable funk from 2yrs ago.
Troughsnouts research piece is a poorly back engineered hit piece easily ridiculed for its obvious agenda, and also easily dismissed if one has the time to bother addressing the poorly-dressed up points that were made. Thankfully Olderwiser already took it apart piece by piece.
I would usually only trade an AIM explorer but with panr I have a decent long position that I am happy to keep.
NSAI recoverable resources don't lie.
This will be big. Will take some time but as soon as the market sees that the future value will crystalise then the market cap will catch up very fast.
There are some big shorts to close. This could be quite enjoyable aside.
Brevarthan/troughsnout - try harder or increase your short, why dont you.
Wacky
Presumably you allude to a share price increase when you say 'gagging on cornflakes'? If that is your meaning then I fear you do not read the market well.
The market cap here will be accelerated to the downside significantly and rapidly from here for some time off the back of recent events and presentation. Mainly due to uncertainty in a market that heavily punishes such circumstances.
Prd have not met expectation, in fact have significantly missed the mark in terms of shareholder returns, having raised capital to test and thus far failed to do so. This will not be pretty until the market gets either results or clarity.
My opinion.
21p 2023 --> 7.5p 2024
Speaks for itself.
My opinion.
Strategy & Operations Update
November 2023
Transcript of webinar from 28m12s.
David Hobbs - "In the news, what you’ve seen on a number of occasions over the last few months, is that Alaska has been progressing a gas export option. This is being driven more than anything else by the growing , erm or the looming deficit of gas down in the Cook inlet. And south central Alaska, which is where Anchorage and most of consuming industry in Alaska is, is going to require natural gas down there. That's bringing an urgency to the development of a pipeline from the North slope. Where, in the legacy fields there's some 40 trillion cubic feet of gas, mostly been reinjected into the Prudhoe Bay reservoir. But in addition there's around 10 trillion cubic feet, out of that 40, is in point Thompson, where gas is being recycled in a condensate development there. The plan involves LNG exports. That would also involve a large carbon capture and sequestration plant up in Deadhorse. And the most recent public statements from the Alaska gas line Development Corporation has been that they're looking for their FID in 2025, to go ahead. And they have been talking with potential partners who are going to come in to fund that development. We are anticipating that, as a potential producer of natural gas along the pipeline route, and with a common interest in that, we will have gas available for sale, probably sooner than any of the existing gas producers. And also there is a benefit to us in terms of reducing the costs of gas reinjection, by potentially reducing the number of gas reinjection wells. There ought to be a basis on which we can benefit from from the gas pipeline, while the gas pipeline would also benefit from our being able to provide gas at very competitive prices..."
https://youtu.be/4musP1qtsfE?feature=shared&t=1692
[Credit slimfatbloke].
troughsnout
must really sting seeing panrs mc climb after all the effort your put into your brevarthan hit piece, where you reverse engineered figures to come up with the ****** you came up with. had a good laugh reading it.
but please, try harder next time.
thanks.
Well, it certainly looks like this will in fact be headed down after all. Regardless of gas in situ.
Sold all of the rest of my holdings. Wasnt a lot of appetite for stock, also not a great sign. Couldn't sell in volume so had to split the trades. Eventually got filled.
Will wait until it settles back at resistance berween 5-6p and rejoin you if there is clarity they will not lose their licence. Too risky, after considering all current pros/cons.
Good luck to those still in. Maybe some news will arrive to reverse. Historically not very forthcoming with prd.
Other stocks to ride up for now.
On a positive note Ive seen companies sandjet deep past formation damage. Even if it was 2ft thick and plasticised from mud reaction or exlosives then sand jet will slice through it like butter. Thats not the issue here... If they peforate and make contact with the reservoir then the gas will find its way into the wellbore. May need a few goes.
Its really just the political or licence extension risk.
Lets be clear - mou1 was drilled in 2021. What company doesnt test or run assessments on heavy mud damage long before they then are on the brink of losing the entire licence, or investors are having to legitimately even consider it as a possibility?? The answer might be a company that has (very impressively!) got three projects over three continents but has spread themselves too thin, has been stalled deliberately, or perhaps just has made some fatal errors that will all be laid bare in hindsight.
Last point on this.
Confident the gas will flow if sand jetted.
Not confident in an rns that tries to imply a retrospective approach that appears to most as a patch-up job on a possibly bad call.
Will wait for a webinar to clear up the matter.
Regardless of the above, prd are very impressive to be advancing all these projects on a shoestring and with (oddly) no loans, bonds or debt otherwise. But even their very best may not be enough if the licence is at risk. 75% of nothing is nothing.
Rosso
My opinion only...
We dont know they have satisfied the terms of the Guercif Agreement. They commenced testing on the 10th. Thats what they wrote in the rns.
Guercif agreement required they test by the 5th. In my books thats 5 days out.
My main question is who (if at all) has possibly attempted (and maybe succeeded?) in stalling the company to the point where they could lose their licence...? Always going to be politically risky partnering with powerful people.
Gas there or not, if prd dont own the licence in order to test then its worth zero. I wonder if another Moroccan 'outfit' might easily have the firepower to take over a distressed licence and test the lot rapidly. All of a sudden its nationalised and poof... our shares are worth nothing. Much easier once all the data is in to launch some kind of takeout/over. Dont think these things dont happen. They do.
Worth considering this. No guidance from prd on this exact point. All contingent on award of ammendment no. 4 which as of yet is not (that we know) awarded. Can only infer however it is by extension that they are planning mou5 drill.
Big resources, yet bigger questions as to whether prd can get the resource out or retain the licence.
Need a webinar and a better explanation of whats going on. Possibly smells of trickery, not from prd, but external forces.
Feel this will certainly trickle down as no news or guidance is forthcoming.
On this basis I have sold a bunch, for purposes of disclosure.