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Yes ...... what a wonderful opportunity to buy in at 205p
Didnt expect to see this price again ......... so close to the Sovereign test being announced
I believe that w/c 5th April is most likely to be the week in which CE mark / CV news is released........ obviously the sooner the better for all concerned, for no other reason, than it provides clarity. However we know, with some certainty, that very significant news (either way) will be announced within the next say 8 trading days.
In the meantime, the share will trade moreso on investor's "belief and sentiment" as opposed to the company fundamentals. The LTHs, not over exposed, will see any drops as great buying opportunities ....... the remainder may get spooked into forced (panick) selling as the SP "falls". Presumably the imminent trading update, if read in isolation, may not justify the current SP (by a long chalk) and may be spun as "(very) disappointing" by de-rampers.
At the start of each trading day the SP will inevitably fall (for no other reason than there was no 7am RNS)......... thereafter it will find its true "on the day" level. Of course, an RNS can be published at anytime 24/7 which will immediately give rise to a significant re-rate (either way), based upon the content.
Some see this as a period of great "uncertainty"......... but all that is "unknown" is the content of the CE mark / CV announcement.......... the only "uncertainty" is, are you a believer or not? (that should be easy, for you, to answer) and at what SP level does "value" exist / not exist (that's almost impossible to answer, within the context of the current SP movement..... unless you can "correctly" assess the probability of the contents of the fortcoming announcement ..... which will predominantly be seen as binary; "success" or "failure")........... I'm a LTH and my assessment of "success" (ie very good LFT s/s and accuracy values) is 75%+ (any "issues" are more likely to be with the "samples" (eg abnormal characteristics / "contamination" etc) rather than with the performance of the test........ For the record, I had a chat with a fellow investor last week in which I put forward the view that the recent SP rise up to 275 was a bit "ballsy" in the context of the last 6 month's SP activity and felt 235-250 was a fairer reflection (at that time) ........ I also said "true value" was difficult to assess (until the outcome of the CE mark / CV is known)...... but (IMO) at below 220 would start to represent "value" again, during this "waiting period" ............ alternatively, probably the wisest thing to do right now, is to just switch off from all the ramping / de-ramping nonsense until the announcement is made......... there's virtually nothing useful to be gleaned from anyone, in the interim.
TB is a good salesman (Pump and dump comes to mind).....and of course the timing of the announcement is not lost on anyone........ we all know that anyone who has anything will sell a few (the chinese have done rather well in "round 1")......... but there's only one British consortium (can you imagine Boris and Han**** doing biz with the likes of TB........ they have their image do consider.......... there'll be a dozen or so of these "alternatives" emerging over the coming months........... but there's only one soveriegn test and LFTs will be in all our bathroom cabinets for a very long time....... not the other contracptions (you have to feel sorry for the BRH FOMO buyers just now who will obviously be severely spiked)
The MMs will be trying all they can to prise your shares away from you during this "waiting period" (which could last another week or more)........... the share price during this period will not be an indication of Avacta's true value...."mind games", "sentiment" and "testing your belief" will be to the fore........... the share price activity will be what the MMs believe they need to do to force you to sell...... volumes will be low ......... hang on in there............ the inevitable is very close now. gla
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/securing-our-health-the-uk-health-security-agency
Mr Han**** said: "I want everybody at UKHSA, at all levels, to wake up every day with a zeal to plan for the next pandemic”....... crickey mate, be careful what you wish for............ but good to see some forward planning....... and hopefully they have the sense to invite the right people to the top table (if AS isnt too busy with the 30+ other priorities on the Avacta "to do" list).
energy........... and hopefully the secretary twigs, the fax is out of paper and installs another roll ........ only for the long awaited to be spat out dated 23-03....... those were the days :)
Lest we forget, the Avacta share price in last 3-4 months;
14-12-20 105p
30-12-20 111p
29-01-21 123p
10-02-21 130p
24-02-21 179p
03-03-21 190p
So, in the context of the above, just 3 weeks ago (with 200p being a very strong and established resistant point) would you have settled for (or even "bitten the hand off") for a SP circa 245/250p on 24th March?....and would you be viewing things differently, today, if we had had a gentle and progressive rise to 245/250, in the interim, and hadn’t touched the 270s? ......the MMs want your shares during this "waiting period"..... the only action within your control, is will you let them have them at today's price of circa £2.45/2.50? .......... Do you believe CE Mark / clinical validation approval is a slam dunk or more of a 50-50 "bet"? ....... it’s what PIs do ..... buy and sell shares and at every key stage there are decisions to be made ........ this particular window of opportunity, in all probability, will last say 1 day (min) to say 3 weeks (max) ......... the SP after this period is the only real significant metric of importance to PIs, not the day on which key announcements are made and by whom. If you believe that Avacta will fulfil its undoubted potential (and become a £10+ share in 2021) the day- day journey is not so important, but of course it’s nice to progress with haste (and AIM is clearly weighted to the very “short term”), but in the world of medical diagnostics and therapeutics progressing with "due diligence" is much more important and AS clearly recognises this...... its clearly ingrained in his dna....... IMO Ihis philosophy/characteristic will pay (handsome) dividends to long term PIs. gla
Politician's rarely do anything unless it has percived political gain or without the "political look" at least being considered and Boris (and his "advisers") are no doubt already working on the list (not very long at the moment) of things we (the Govn) got right during the Covid pandemic to feed into the future "Public inquiry" and the next GE i.e. the Vaccine(s), Furlough.......... and potentially the Sovereign LF test .......... so, on balance, if there's political gain to be had then Boris will want to be involved. Whether it’s with an upfront announcement or whether he plays it safe and piggy backs on, after a few months of great success, claiming "Another fantastic initiative by this Government who co-ordinated, supported and funded this Great British consortium......... blah blah blah....... " isn’t really of concern to Avacta or its PIs.........indeed whether the UK Govn has the wisdom to buy any isn’t pivotal to Avacta's long term success or failure (we will no doubt sell, worldwide, all that can be produced) ..... but it would no doubt be "useful", in the short term and provide an immediate uplift to the SP ........ I therefore suspect that the "timings" of any future announcement(s) either i) by Avacta directly (via RNSs) is very much at the behest of or are “in consultation” with the UK Govn or ii) by the UK Govn directly who will announce things, subject to, actual progress along their roadmap………. I suspect AS already has knowledge of or a very clear steer as to the outcome of the CE mark / clinical validation processes.......... thats the important bit, not the timing of the announcement.
During the Q&A tonight the first question was along the lines of "what are the plans to stop the the third wave entering the country........ are there plans (by the UK Gov) to use lateral flow tests for anyone entering the country........?"
I thought it was very telling that none of the response mentioned or used the phrase "lateral flow tests" at all....... even though the country is awash with China crap at the moment (ie that part of the question was very obviously totally ignored)........ other than Boris bumbling on about "taklng measures" and "measures are constantly under review" ...... almost like "we cant talk about that, until imminent formal announcements have been made".......... in fact it was more like, we cant even talk about the fact that "we cant talk about it".
then ..............amongst all the usual err em / waffle, Boris came out with a very distinct date of 5th April in the context of reporting back further ........ he obviously has 5th April in his mind for some reason............ normally he'd say something vague like "in the near future" or "in the weeks ahead" ........... I assume the 5th April is the date Boris has in his diary to inform us all about Step 2 in the Gov roadmap (ie effectively a "progress update") ........... which presumably could refer to "progress" on other things (the sovereign test?), if its not in the public domain by that date? ........... the point Id take from all this is that there isnt an actual "critical date" set in stone, by which announcements/decisions must be made ......... other than the blidingly obvious, the sooner the better for all concerned
They appeared a lot together a year ago .......... there was a threesome in Sept, Nov and Jan this year.......... cant recall any since then........ maybe a dress rehersal to the "big one"
I see Boris and the A team are back on the podium tonight at 5pm. Its probably a bit early to be thinking about any formal announcements, but youd imagine any future "significant" announcements will be made by Boris and flanked by the A team (so a combo to watch out for in future days/weeks) ....... presumably tonight Boris may touch on vaccine rollout / vaccine "wars" with EU, the third wave (we still have to be very cautious), and initial data from schools returning...... and a possible look ahead to the "next stage" ........... touching on mass testing in some way (key words; next generation easy to use and rapid results "LFTs", "sovereign test", "great British effort/consortium" etc etc) gla .... ps the MMs now just trying to nick a few on the cheap (during this "waiting" period), prior to you know what :)
The actual "announcement" date is not totally undern AS's control.......... the validation sign off will be at the pace of the jobsworth(s) doing it (the clockwathchers and tea & dunking biscuit brigade) ........ more importantly there will need to be a discussion with Boris on timings........ he (Boris) wont want this clashing with a big news vaccine update day or anything else in the political world, for that matter.....Boris still wants the great unwashed to remain focussed on "vaccines" for as long as he can drag it out without Tory backbenchers getting noisy again ......... hence the AS "lack of certainty" which some may misconstrue as "vaguness".......... no doubt Boris will be looking at "good dates" in his diary and pencilling something in that suits, during the next couple of weeks. (probably on the back of good data following the re-opening of schools) ........... but clearly its a question of "when" not "if" now............ anyone who hasnt got that yet needs help....... the discussion should be moving on.
This is the same one year period in which the Avacta share price has risen from 15p to todays 260p (a 17x + bagger).......... you might find thats a slightly more important metric to measure performance by .......... especially in the eyes of LT PIs......... "poor" is not a word Id use
The (CE) timelines are "Indicative" or "best estimates" other than that they are of no great significance.......... Avacta is not building a hotel which must be open and operational on 1st April come what may (as would be the case if there were 300 pre-booked customers arriving on the day to check in).......... this is why AS is not focussed or fussed about a spefic date 30th March, 8th April or whatever......... its the product thats important ........... was Picasso judged by the finished article or whether or not he he completed his work by a certain date. Its unclear to me what the de-rampers believe is going to happen as the clock strikes midnight on 31st March, in the world of Covid testing / LFTs...... absolutely fa ............ the demand will be there "tomorrow" and for a very long time (probably years)
Another case of "mates rates"......... gets rid of the day traders in one easy move............ nothing has changed for LTHs in the last hour. makes me smile (MMs shenanigans) gla
AS says (on LFTs) “working through clinical validation now, we anticipate CE marking around the end of the quarter “We’ve been able to put several manufacturing partnerships in place in the UK we are now looking abroad as we ramp up over the next (short) period of time……. The challenge has always been supply (rather than demand)…………” My take: the UK market all wrapped up……… now looking to take over the world…………. Also re: CE marking, don’t hold AS to “by 31st March” it’s a total irrelevance in the scheme of things……… if its first, second week in April so be it........ so what!
Also working on all other pipelines………… watch this space
It’s all on track and all good. gla
AS wont say anything (that's market senstive) prior to it being announced via the formal route (RNS).......... why on earth would he? (in fact he def shouldnt) ..... especially as he's dinning at the top table now and the last thing this Gov (or any other Western Gov for that matter) needs is anything that doesnt look "whiter than white" ........in any event, its clearly not his style (the word "gravitus" comes to mind)......... all will be reveiled very shortly in the proper way (RNS / financial report etc). We need to remember where we were in December and even just 2 weeks ago and reflect on were we will (hopefully) be in April, and thereafter ........ and be satisfied with where we are today......for now ;) gla
Nice to see Lloyds have adopted our (current) theme tune in their adverts (the old Carpenters's classic)
Everytime I hear that I think.......... thats us! ........ and your not bl**dy kidding!!
"Not 'arf" ......... as Fluff would 'ave said (back in the day). gla
Only* of course!
Only* of course!