RE: Creo Medical Group plc: CMD feedback5 Dec 2025 12:12
Creo Medical Group plc {Ticker: CREO.L, Closing Price: 10.50 GBp, Target Price: 40.00 GBp, Recommendation: Buy}
Summary
Creo hosted a CMD xxx, providing greater detail on the commercial and clinical progress of its products, while presentations from a number of clinicians using Creo's products brought the technology platform to life. The mantra of the day was “Everything energy for endoscopy”, a plug and play platform and a unique offering, unifying bipolar energy and microwave RF. No new financial information was provided, but it appears confident in meeting FY25 numbers. Key takeaways: (1) large TAM and supportive market drivers (2) positive physician testimonies on the tech/platform; (3) a fuller suite of products available at the end of 2026/early 2027; (4) large potential upside in US market from 2027 (CPT code), and with Intuitive/MicroBlate (studies ongoing), and (5) numbers now set more prudently, while confident in achieving break-even by 2028 and comfortable on funding.
CMD takeaways:
Market drivers intact: Large TAM of which it is focusing on a smaller portion ($1.5bn SAM). Clinical need for minimal invasive procedures ongoing, a shift from diagnosis to therapeutic, and from surgery to endoscopy suite.
Positive physician feedback: We heard from 4 physicians who use Creo's products, speaking to the advantage of bipolar energy vs monopolar methods of delivering energy. The speakers pointed to several benefits of Creo’s platform, namely lower total cost of care, safety, efficacy, shorter length of stay and faster learning process. Furthermore, the multimodal (cutting & coagulation) nature of its products is seen as an advantage over the competition, providing better economics.
New product launches: Currently 8 products in multi-therapeutic areas, and will have a full suit of products available at the end of 2026/early 2027 (launching 4 new GI products in next 2 years). A dedicated CPT code in US for ESD from Jan 2027 should standardize national reimbursement and is key to unlocking US growth. With regards to Intuitive, MicroBlate feedback and data (not peer reviewed) is positive thus far, but needs to build more evidence, with studies ongoing, and this is a 2027 story.
No new financial info: Reiterated guidance for 40-60% growth in FY25. Growth in next 12 months almost all from existing products (Speedboat, SpydrBlade and a little bit from MicroBlate). New products to contribute after that. Along with a right sized cost base, break-even EBITDA still expected in 2028 and believe sufficiently funded to get there.
No change to forecasts
We expect 50% growth to £6m in FY25, and a U/L EBITDA loss of £12.5m, implying a further sequential reduction in losses in H2. Further out, we expect 50%+ growth y/y and EBITDA break-even in 2028. We expect Creo to end the year with cash of c.£13m.
A reminder of the investment case
We think Creo is at an inflection point, having previously rebased forecasts for core technology, with a re
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