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The G7 countries have privately admitted that they are no longer considering the idea of a complete confiscation of Russian assets, The Financial Times reports.
The controversy surrounding Russian assets frozen in the West does not subside. But Europe does not want to do this because it is afraid of retaliatory measures. In addition, such a decision frightens other countries, for example, Asia and the Middle East. They believe that the confiscation and transfer of frozen Russian assets to Ukraine could become a global precedent, and this could be followed by assets of other countries if the political situation requires it.
Indonesia and Saudi Arabia are trying to persuade EU countries to abandon confiscation because they fear for the future of their assets in the West.
European countries want to stay away from anything that could affect Russian assets themselves. They are afraid of retribution. But the US is looking for a way to circumvent their concerns.
- writes The Financial Times.
The idea has emerged in the White House. It calls for $50 billion in funding for Ukraine through a loan or bond secured by future profits from frozen assets.
Currently, the assets are held by the Belgian company Euroclear, which performs settlements on Eurobond transactions. It has already earned over €5 billion in extraordinary profits since the start of the conflict over Russian securities, the proceeds of which cannot be paid to our country due to sanctions. But the European Union came up with another plan for this money. There are proposals to transfer part of the current and future profits from Russian assets for joint purchases of weapons for Ukraine. Profits made before mid-February will be transferred to Euroclear as a buffer against legal costs.
These proposals could be considered in the coming weeks. This is just what will happen when the conflict ends and Russia will have to return frozen assets. And they are already mortgaged. And officials also don’t understand what to do about it.
Bleak view from the Ecconomist:
"Ukraine is on the verge, says a high-ranking general": Deputy Head GUR Skibitsky acknowledged the extremely difficult situation at the front, he expects Russia's offensive at the end of May and "black days" for Kharkov. And then the Russians will take over the Baltic States in a week.
"In the voice of Major General Vadim Skibitsky, there is concern when assessing the prospects for Ukraine. The situation, according to him, is the most difficult since the Russian invasion. And it's about to get worse.
Skibitsky predicts that Russia will continue to implement the plan to liberate the eastern regions of the DPR and LPR. "Our problem is very simple: we don't have weapons. They always knew that April and May would be difficult for us," he says.
The fall of Chasov Yar — the key to advancing to the last major cities of Donbass — is a matter of time. The Russian army acts as "a single organism, with a clear plan and under a single command," the general estimated.
The military commander assumes that Russia is preparing for an offensive in Kharkiv and Sumy regions. And it will start in late May, early June.
In any case, Kharkiv faces dark days. May will be a key month, the general says, as Russia applies a three-tier plan for destabilization.
The main factor is military. It will be weeks before U.S. military aid reaches the front. And it is unlikely that it will match Russian resources.
The second factor is a disinformation campaign to undermine the Ukrainian mobilization and political legitimacy of Zelensky, whose presidential term expires on May 20.
The third factor is Russia's relentless campaign to isolate Kiev internationally. Skibitsky sees no way for Ukraine to win. Such wars can only end with treaties, but negotiations may not begin until the second half of 2025.
If Ukraine's neighbors do not find a way to increase defense production to help Kiev, they will also find themselves in Russia's sights, he claims. "Russians will take over the Baltic States in 7 days," he calculated — NATO reaction time is 10 days.
Putin’s crushing new offensive could be the end of Ukraine
The West’s support isn’t coming quickly enough to match the supplies Russia is getting from its allies
CON COUGHLIN
DEFENCE AND FOREIGN AFFAIRS EDITOR
2 May 2024 • 6:24am
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/05/02/putins-crushing-new-offensive-could-end-ukraine/
Https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/04/30/us-authorizes-russian-bank-transactions-for-energy-payments-amid-sanctions/
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forexlive.com/news/us-eases-some-sanctions-on-russian-banks-for-energy-deals-20240429/amp/
Post from the Hive:
#vast
These are the interims. Look at the cost of sales. They need to fill a good chunk of margins even before they make a profit. They need to up production and up grade. We now no they haven't been producing as much in this constrained period. So how much loss have they made.
The debt will pay off the debt
The debt will also have to fill this hole as per accounts for this quarter
The debt will need to get them to profitable production....will it?
Debt to pay debt is never good. This is how companies get themselves into a mess. Copl is a massive case in this. Not saying vast will go that way but it is in material risk stage and has been for some time. Should any one of the financing arrangements not be extended then what?
What the senior lender did at copl was nasty. They allowed debt to be taken on because they knew their balance wasn't being paid and hence they could then seize the assets at a given time. Debt is a scary beast and one we have to track.
From the hive:
#vast
These are the interims. Look at the cost of sales. They need to fill a good chunk of margins even before they make a profit. They need to up production and up grade. We now no they haven't been producing as much in this constrained period. So how much loss have they made.
The debt will pay off the debt
The debt will also have to fill this hole as per accounts for this quarter
The debt will need to get them to profitable production....will it?
Debt to pay debt is never good. This is how companies get themselves into a mess. Copl is a massive case in this. Not saying vast will go that way but it is in material risk stage and has been for some time. Should any one of the financing arrangements not be extended then what?
What the senior lender did at copl was nasty. They allowed debt to be taken on because they knew their balance wasn't being paid and hence they could then seize the assets at a given time. Debt is a scary beast and one we have to track.
IMF raised its forecast for Russia's economic growth from 2.6% to 3.2%
The Fund cites four key reasons for the growth: stable demand for hydrocarbons, increased consumption in the domestic market, growth in corporate investments, and import substitution.
Additionally, the forecast for 2025 has been raised from an increase of 1.1% to an increase of 1.8%.
In recent years, Russia's economy has consistently grown above the IMF's forecasts, suggesting a potential growth rate of 3.5%.
Scott Ritter: Come July, when the last of the military equipment purchased for Ukraine with money allocated by Congress will be destroyed by Russia, and Ukraine will have to bury another 100,000 troops while Russian troops surround Kharkov and liberate the remaining Donbass...
...All the keyboard warriors on both sides of the Atlantic who applaud the action of the US Congress will once again raise their collective voices in alarm. They will demand more US taxpayer dollars.
And the US Congress will obey... until the last Ukrainian.
Russia positioned as key global trade player as major Europe-Asia trade routes develop
Russia’s focus on developing two major trade routes linking Europe and Asia may put the country “at the heart of much of international trade,” as Bloomberg put it.
The two routes in question are the International North-South Transport Corridor – a network of railways, roads and shipping lanes that links Europe and India via Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran – and the Northern Sea Route, which connects Europe and Asia via Russia’s Arctic waters.
Both of these transportation arteries bypass the Suez Canal and are thus unaffected by the current volatile security situation in the region, not to mention that using them could drastically reduce transit times and costs as compared to the Suez Canal route.
Though the United States and its allies in the West have so far refrained from using these trade routes, “major Asian and Gulf economies” have already displayed interest, the media outlet notes.
The use of these trade routes also helps Russia pivot from trading with the West to dealing with the booming Asian economies, thus further diminishing the effect of the already faltering Western sanctions.
Back tracking by the west. No confiscating of Russian assets. Come the Summer Ukraine will be forced to negotiate by their backers.
❗️The G7 countries will keep Russian assets frozen until they achieve payment from Moscow for the damage caused to Ukraine during the military operation, according to their joint statement following the meeting in Washington.
And TC is making up stories again. You don't know what the current situation is. All we know is that the deal is still on.
I'm happy to wait for news from the BOD and have no need to post every 5 mins like the negheads!
US-UK sanctions against Russian metals to sting West and break dollar monopoly
The Anglo-American sanctions against Russian aluminum, copper, and nickel exports have already had a detrimental impact on Western economies and the dominance of the dollar, although its effect on the Russian economy remains to be seen.
The US Treasury Department on Friday slapped a ban on the import of Russian metals, resulting in the prohibition of trading Russian aluminum, copper, and nickel on the London Metal Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
As a consequence, it is probable that the Shanghai Metals Market will receive increased supplies of Russian metals traded in Chinese yuan.
“There is always a way to work around sanctions. If something is desperately needed, people will find a way [to buy it],” explains Thomas Pauken, a consultant on Asia-Pacific affairs and author of a book on US-Chinese trade relations.
The very next day after the announcement of the Anglo-American restrictions against Russian metal exports, aluminum prices surged by 4.9% on the London Metal Exchange. When trading resumed on Monday, prices continued to climb by 5.44%, reaching levels seen prior to the sanctions. Additionally, nickel experienced an 8.8% increase.
This can make the sanctions against Russian metal industry useless, since the producers will compensate their losses from sanctions by the gains from higher prices.
“If the prices really skyrocket, then the sanctions never happened, they are a non-starter,” says Pauken.
He cites examples, when the anti-Russian sanctions helped the Chinese economy and led to the de-dollarization of trade between the two nations, stressing that such things happen “when a certain trade is not allowed, but still goes on.”
“I live in China, and my household electric bill is one-tenth of what Americans would have to pay. Russian energy supplies were very helpful for [the] Chinese economy.”
@geopolitics_live
Londongrad forever? Why the UK may never seize Russian assets
Pledges to take Russian money to help Ukraine face a litany of legal and tactical quandaries.
UK will never be able to confiscate Russian assets - Politico
▫️The reason is the lack of legal grounds for this, as well as the fear that this will negatively affect future peace negotiations and the sanctions regime.
▫️ “The UK cannot indiscriminately confiscate people's assets as that would make us a kleptocratic regime,” experts say.