Member Info for millow

I’m not sure people appreciate how disappointing and negative dilution is going to be for this stock. Screws long term holders up a lot. Means going back to ATH is extremely unlikely.

It’s just closing the discount to nav on the announcement. It’ll open again once people realise what the listing and dilution means.

Basically, an altseason won’t help this as much as it used to post November, if that’s what people were expecting to happen again.

So long term holders will get their shares diluted and someone else will benefit from an increase in the underlying nav? Brilliant.

Tbf the underlying has gone nowhere. DOT, TIA, ATOM massively down even over the last 12 months.

The stock is basically a play on those and they are struggling.

The underlying just hasn’t really moved that much.

DOT, TIA, LDO, ATOM, and stETH represent c62% of the portfolio. If there’s no meaningful move up there then the share price won’t move meaningfully.

DOT, TIA and ATOM are 40% alone.

If you want to see the price move, sentiment needs to change on those. It’s one of the downsides of an almost entirely sentiment, TA driven market. If the ticker isn’t ‘liked’ the price won’t move.

There’s no real fundamental change in those names (by that I mean increase in cash flows). Therefore, it’s all sentiment.

They are just in the wrong assets that have done very well for them. But an investment manager would be trimming those positions as they did well and reinvesting elsewhere. This isn’t managed like that. It’s more of a seed investment, buy and hold long term and let things run.

They aren’t going to rotate into what the market favours. So either think of this as a very long term investment where the underlying eventually wins market share and monetising meaningfully or look for something more in line with what you seem to expect (a ‘trading’ portfolio).

Sounds like someone who knows it’s end of cycle and wants exit liquidity!

Alt coins have done nothing so it’s not unexpected.

This is a portfolio of altcoins. It’ll go nowhere until they do. BOD can’t control that unless they completely change their strategy.

It’s just the underlying holding. All are underwater. It’s one of the downsides of a sentiment driven retail market. It doesn’t matter if there is utility. If they aren’t in favour this is going nowhere. For this to do well it needs tia, dot, ldo and atom to fly.

Yeah, I’m not sure we’ll see that kind of movement this time around. The portfolio is very much focused on infrastructure rather than application and I believe the latter is where we’ll see the majority of gains (if indeed there is an alt season).

This is a long term, slow burner that will benefit from adoption rather than hype so I think people might want to temper their expectations a bit.

I’ve still not worked out whether the portfolio is positioned that way intentionally or whether the team just don’t have the knowledge or motivation to rotate into the next stage/layer of the technology. I’m surprised they wouldn’t want a more diversified portfolio. NVIDIA is great for AI but now you’d want to have more exposure to the potential applications rather than just the ‘spades’.

Isn’t zee prime a vc fund? So the valuation isn’t going to move too much as it won’t be priced the same way. I can’t see much on the second vintage but the original vintage seems to be focused on AI etc

I think people need to realise this was basically a ‘lifestyle business’ for the BOD. They’ve made their millions now by getting in early and so they are just enjoying the fruits of their labour and not worrying too much about the day to day.

The reason why the share price is going nowhere is because the underlying isn’t. Until you see DOT, LDO, TIA et al move, this won’t do anything. All seem massively out of favour so the chances are fairly low atm. Especially given how fragmented the market is nowadays.

The combination of those two things is the issue.

My point is, we know he’s starting on Monday and we expect those things to happen. So would that not already be in the price?

Why would it rally for the inauguration?

Everyone has known he’ll be president for a couple of months. How does Monday act as a catalyst?

(Sincere question - I get why a reply on election day but not really inauguration).

When the underlying is risky, vehicles like this will generally trade at a discount to NAV. It’s not a million miles away from the kind of discount you are seeing for equity investment trusts and listed PE.

Is this not just because HL will be a market maker so will hold enough liquidity for that purpose?

I was wondering what impact Thanksgiving would have. Would retail investors take the day off too?

Well no. You are comparing the circumstances of 2021 to now when the environment is very different. A) the macro economic environment has shifted, b) there isn’t the influx of fiscal stimulus that put money into the pockets of retail investors at a time when they had else to spend it on and c) a lot of the money that has flowed into bitcoin etc is unlikely to flow into alts.

I’ve been invested for 5 years and I think it’s a good long term vehicle for blockchain. But talking as if it’s a given that some of these coins are going to go to the levels they need to for the stock to hit an ATH isn’t realism. It’s pretty optimistic. The stock needs to go 3x to hit the previous high.

I’ve been invested for ages. Just think a little realism might be in order.

For this get back to all time highs you basically need TIA, ATOM and DOT all to $20-30. Which seems unrealistic to me.

I think given the substantial holdings in celestia and polkadot, this will struggle despite Bitcoin being close to ATH.