RE: Chart looks good6 Nov 2018 14:37
There are several factors right now that we can attribute to the 'suppressed' SP.
Firstly we have the final item of procurement - namely the MTS fit-out, this has not yet been contracted out but is supposedly (last we heard) all but complete as they look to expand the commitments of STRABAG. We are expecting news in Q4 of this, and that - after the port facility announcement this week - will see the completion of procurement and therefore an allaying of the associated risk. This is the most imminent news that I can see having any notable impact on our beloved SP.
Second, and i think most pertinent is the looming possibility of dilution.
We have the possibility that CF and the BoD are managing expectations, and perhaps the dilution may not happen (under promise, over deliver and all that).
If it does happen though, then it all comes down to the level of dilution and also the offer. 25p? 22p? higher even if we see the SP rise from the news of my first point? Nobody really knows, otherwise this would be easy, but I would say that talking about a SP of 40p etc may be a little pointless, as the level of dilution will by definition alter the value of a share, and so the 39.8p SP that we saw a couple of months back will not be the same as a 39.8p SP after dilution as there will be more shares and therefore the MCAP of SXX would have changed, so speculation isn't the best thing to get involved in as there are too many variables to consider here. Hence the low share price (uncertainty.)
And then we have the current risk averse market conditions, this doesn't help us out either.
It is up to each of us individually to weigh up and assess all that we can and form our own decisions on this. I personally am of the view that all of this agonizing will seem fatuous in a few years time. If you have a decade or so in front of you, then I can only imagine (saving for some sort of catastrophe) that 23-24pps will seem like an unbelievable deal as we grow closer to first production.