Member Info for merlin89

Well yeah but that's the whole thing in the news about Him Hers is people buying cheaper knock offs , getting it for $199 a month as opposed to novos list price of like $1000

Prices will come down, side effects will get reduced anyway i think.

I'm not saying that 5 yrs from now there are no blobby people and everyone only eats salads. But as popularity of those goes up, prices go down and they get better drugs it is going to have an effect.

Thats not the biggest risk, the biggest risk to a company like this is not shoplifting or people deciding not to eat 'heart attack food' as someone suggested. Your biggest enemy is Novo Nordisk or any GLP-1 hormone mimic class drugs.

Because they work by making you eat less or not at all, people who take that will look at a sausage roll or a donut and feel physically sick , those things cut into your normal reactions and appetite in relation to food, you just will not eat this stuff because it is too calorie dense.

That's the point, that's why those drugs work.

The whole sector has taken a beating, look at Jack Daniels maker Brown Forman down 75% or Constellation brands down about the same as Diageo .

I think if i was to pick one to buy it'd be LVMH Louis Vuitton off the french market, taken as much of a beating but is more diversified .

I think it's being re-rated to the mid point of the blue skies optimistic £2

So, i think it goes to £1 sits in a range until the company proves it, that the earnings beat, if so itll go beyond a quid, if not it tanks to 40 p.

I don't know , it seems like anyone's guess.

I'd not pay more than a quid because they really gotta show us the money otherwise the low p/e is deserved . So i'd be selling then and leave it on the table for someone else.

And then some young gamestop and bitcoin crowd come along and send it to £20 after i sell.

But this company doesn't have debt so it can't go bankrupt. The risk to us is that their 'debt' is leases / rental and so they could wind down the assets by walking away from rent. In a company like this their debt and assets are exactly the same thing right because it is leases not bank loans? they have the asset as long as they pay rent.

What i considered is that their net assets is just the stock, the inventory and cash position. Since they had £31 million in inventory and a few million in cash when they was trading at £13 million market cap it's a situation where a fire sale liquidation wouldn't leave you short by much. I thought 'they could wind this down and walk away with at least £10 million for us', so it was only like a 30% max downside real term risk. It's a bit more than that now at 45p though.

Their inventory is not highly time dependent or perishable unlike food or technology and so it seems like it can be liquidated without too much trouble.

They do partial liquidations anyway, they'll fire sale a location on occasion and close shop, basically handing back the keys.

And that is most likely, rather than full liquidation risk, the risk to us is really that potential to wind down with store closures and not insolvency

They had delays in their audit so they requested shares be suspended, it was the company who suspended them. They say its due to them changing auditors creating delays : https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/LSE20250430112304_5635993/temporary-suspension#:~:text=As%20a%20result%2C%20the%20Company%20has%20requested%20that,Company%20will%20request%20that%20the%20suspension%20be%20lifted.

Agreed but you was trying to say the revenue itself is useful to look at. But bottom line is really the only useful number and you have to believe that the future is like the past. Well higher interest rates , trade tensions, war and higher inflation (associated higher costs) are obviously putting that in doubt. Although to be fair not just to this company.

Revenue is vanity, profit is sanity. Bottom line is what you have to be concerned about. Like right now you could buy 1000 Ferraris at £250k each and sell them for £240k each you'd have revenue of £240 million and bottom line is in the red by 10 mil how much are you worth if you did that? nothing but you could say 'look i'm a 240 million revenue company' doesn't mean anything.