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Change of management would be a better option !

But with the switch from petroleum to energy, they may be trying to turn attention to the fact that Gas is a much cleaner source of energy compared to the diesel powered generators currently used in Nigeria.

I am not sure what the ratio is between Institutional and retail investors in SAVP. I recall it being roughly 70/30. Maybe A.K views the institutions as his priority to keep informed. Absolutely no excuse for this conduct if true.

As tradeemup stated, alot of investors have been through suspensions / 7deal delays etc. I thought after the wait to complete the 7 deal, A.K would have be been ' right, thanks for being patient, here's the Submission doc / debt refinance / Niger update '. Not on day of completion, but within a 1 / 2 month time frame.

Its a shame because this is a company that is supplying possibly over 10% of Gas to the largest economy in Africa. Sometimes you have to question are the management at SAVP up to the job ?

It would be interesting to get the views of some of the Institutions invested.

As mentioned, if there were any issues with payments atm, its very unlikely they would be supplying even more gas, so looks positive to me.
It would be interesting to see the revenues being created through the extra Gas sales at present. FCF should be looking very healthy.
If payments are being received. i think they should take advantage of these share price levels, and buy back a block of shares from the market. Considering in December some institutions took more at over 20p, this would make logical sence to me.

Agreed LST.
Also using the pipeline should vastly reduce the cost of producing oil, compared to trucking to the Zinder refinery.

Director buys would be encouraging. But at these levels with a £70 million market cap, they could buy back 20% of the total shares in issue for under £15 million. If they are receiving the payments for gas sales this shouldn't be a problem, and would slash the shares in issue to just under 800 million.

Since the deal completed last November the shares have underperformed massively. Even when the markets were strong in nov - feb SAVP lagged. Because of this under performance, when the markets tanked due to the corona out break we now find ourselves at circa 7p.

My main issue atm is with Andrew Knotts salary. Surely he has to wake up and realise we are now a £70 million m/cap company. Salaries should be cut accordingly to reflect this. Hopefully some of the institutions on board will raise this issue.

Poor communication / regular news flow seems to be the norm here. Maybe the institutions receive more information from the company than us regular investors, as they account for a large percentage of total holders.

As for Niger, in the current environment I would take a 2 year view as proving up as much oil as financially viable, as the the export pipeline should be completed in 2022, and hopefully the oil price should have improved in that time.

Drill / operation costs should be substantially cheaper atm, which is one small positive.

Absolutely mind blowing.
Down over 30% in one day. Among the worst performing shares in the sector yet again, even though we are a fixed priced Gas producer. Maybe I've misunderstood the RNSs and were are producing 90 % oil not gas !

This is the result of months and months of under performing the market, way before corona appeared on the scene.
Now the markets have tanked, this share price has gone into the abyss.

Market cap now £67 million. The CEO is going to have to cut his cloth accordingly. His salary has to be reflected by the market cap of this company. £300k max !

Also if we are receiving the muted payments for our Gas sales, surely a share buy back has to be considered imminently. 25% of shares could be brought back for £17 million.

Maybe the penny will finally drop that over 90% of our income is through fixed priced GAS contracts. This company should be pretty much sheltered from the brent price drop. Andrew Knott deserves much criticism such as his remuneration package, but the ACUGAS deal could prove to be a master stroke in these market conditions.

In the Nigeria CPR issued in December, I believe the debt was $409 million. $40 million had previously been paid off during 2019.

Some good posting here in the last few days. Most notably from Zengas and Michu.

Both making good assessments on future share price movements.

I my opinion I can agree with both cases.
I think the £2 plus predictions here could be achieved.
If for example in 2 years most of the debt is payed off, 200mbls is proved up in Niger ( currently 50mbls ), and we are generating over $200 million FCF from Nigeria then I could see it as a strong possibility.
The 200mbls from Niger is easy achievable. Even if valued at half the projected $6 per barrel it equates to $600m worth, or £467million.
Just this is worth around 46p on the share price.
This is not even including Nigeria !
So from this very achievable, very discounted example I can see the huge upside here.

Would I still be invested at £2 ish ? No chance!
My average is currently around 22p, and that was only achived by averaging down last summer.
If we reach mid thirties I will probably sell half of my holdings here, mainly due to the fact of being totally fatigued being invested in this company.

Atm Andrew Knott seems to be a specialist in disappointment. Well over 3 months since 7 completion, and STILL no admission document, no news on debt finance, or Niger.

I am prepared to give him this quarter ie end of march. But if nothing positive is announced by then, I think we should be looking for a new CEO. With the assets we have there must be some very experienced executives in the Oil / Gas sector that could create decent shareholder value here. And probably on half of what Andrew Knott is paying himself. It's about time SAVP out performed the sector. Maybe new blood / fresh ideas are required
Apologies for any typos. Sent via mobile.

Some negative and positive aspects regarding SAVP to analyse atm.

Negatives..

* CEO / Directors pay requires reviewing.
* Slow progress on Niger assets.
* Still awaiting news on new Gas customers.
* Feeble share price performance.

Positives..

* $40 million debt paid off in 2019.
* Impressive CPR from Nigeria.
* Institutions adding further in December 2019 via bond holders share buyout. Must be confident considering many will have
averages in the high 30s.
* Expanding Gas market in Nigeria over next few years.
* Export pipeline to be constructed from Niger. Should improve farmout prospects.

Overall I think the delays in Niger could be attributed to the length of time it took to complete the 7 deal. I would imagine they would look to maximise the performance of the Gas business after waiting so long to acquire it, which would require alot of focus, but could quickly improve profits / FCF.
They know from the first campaign how prolific Niger is, and will be very confident of making many further discoveries in 2020, probably with a partner, which could see a significant ammount of wells being drilled.

The CPR from Nigeria was a positive for me. Production up, costs down, and very importantly debt paid down. Paying of $40 million each year would equate to a 4 / 5p share price increase per year. From these 20p levels thats 20/25% increase each year in the share price, without adding any further Gas customers, or drilling any further wells in Niger !

As an investor I am willing to give the company another year as the fundamentals look strong for growth atm. But I think Andrew Knott needs to improve the company's comms with investors, and start hitting timelines on a more regular basis.

Excellent post telegraphist50 ( today @17.06 ). Absolutely spot on. I also have great respect for the posting of Zengas, but to pay of the full $10 million loan facility would equal around just one months free cash flow to SAVP.

It would also send a positive message to the market of a position of strength for the company.

I to like others am waiting on the potential introduction of a partner for Niger. Andrew Knott did seem to indicate in an interview before Christmas that a partner would be introduced early 2020. As ever with this company its heen a long time coming, but a favorable farm out deal should cause a big re rate in the share price.

I see no reason why this wouldn't happen given the excellent news on the Niger export pipeline, and the strong recent performance of the oil price.

I see Malcy has now put a 85p share price target on SAVP. Personally i would be happy with half of that price sometime next year.

I don't see many other Oil / Gas shares down as much as SAVP today, so the FTSE rally shouldn't effect it. Oil price strong also.

Share price performance here has been truly awful given the recent news flow. What's to stop a predator making an opportunist bid considering the market cap and assets on offer.

Maybe there is still an overhang of shares still effecting share price.

Very impressed with the update today. The company looks to be in a very strong position. With excellent free cash flows which can be easily improved on via new additional Gas customers, the future looks very bright.

Debt repayment well under control, operating costs reduced. At double the current joke of a share price this would still be undervalued !

And dont forget Niger. In the Vox interview A.K did seem to imply a partner will be introduced. So possibly more cash in the bank for SAVP. It will be interesting to see how much they farm out, and at what price.

Other shares such as JSE /SQZ not having any problems. Oil price looking strong , and markets near all time highs. So no excuse for poor share price performance.
With the CNPC export pipeline confirmed months ago, a farmout deal could be announced at any time. Its about time Andrew Knott created some shareholder value here.

So thats 10 consecutive negative trading days in a row. That really is quite remarkable. In the corporate update on 31st May, Andrew Knott acknowledged the that SAVPs share price had underperformed the market, and was hopefull that after deal completion they would outperform. So far not the case.

Due to the recent share price fall i think an update is due, highlighting Nigeria performance / production, and a detailed plan going forward with Niger operations.

I see no reason given the time taken to complete the 7 deal that they could not be ready to press ahead with Niger. Especially with the positive results gained from the first campaign.

Hi Kalan. Excellent post also.

I agree the oil and gas sector is generally unloved atm. But the likes of SQZ / RRE / JSE have all multi bagged In recent years, so does show it's Still possible for companies to flourish in tough market environment's.
Also the institutions were confident of future cash flows to cough up considerably at 35p. As was Mr Knott.
It will be interesting to see what impact some new gas customers in Nigeria will have on SAVPS revenues.

When the seven deal was financed at 35p in December 2017 the company was valued at around 313 million.

It appears nothing has been priced in by the market from that time onwards. When you consider the following facts,

× Transaction was improved significantly in the company's favour from original deal.
× Niger proven, with 5/5 discoverys.
× Pipeline deal finalised to export crude from Niger via CNPC pipeline. SAVP has access to this !
× New Gas customers lined up for extra Gas sales in Niger.
× Seven transaction completed on improved terms from the original deal.

When you assess the above you can see a huge disparity between the fundamentals and share price. So far since deal completion every day has been a down day for the share price. To be honest I was expecting the opposite.

Sometimes I do wonder that the only way to achieve fair value here would be for a take out of the company. What price is anyone's guess, but atm it appears when the fundamentals improve the share price fails to reflect this.

Scratching my head atm.

Dropped to the low of the day at 24p via a 65 share ' A ' trade worth £15.6p. Unbelievable !

Agadem, many thanks for putting forward a good selection of questions.

You make some good points Buffy.
Personally for me after being underwater here for so long 43p would get me excited atm. Its more or less double the current share price.
I agree due to the under performance of the share price I would expect some profit taking at these levels. But with the growth potential in both Nigeria / Niger then I could see £2 / £3 a share as achievable in the next few years. If all goes well.

It does make you wonder what kind of share price / market cap targets A.K and the institutions have with this company.