Member Info for mbingo

Feels like we will break out to new highs in the next session or not. Maybe wishful thinking - we’ll see. Seriously undervalued as it stands. What will they buy next with US$70m cash and available debt facility?

Risk v reward changed somewhat with the £500k cash injection - and rebound in gold price. Scope for major re-rate here and limited downside. Interest in gold assets picked up. 2.5m for me now.

Bit of volume in those late trades. Looks like a lot are sells. Given the rise, I would have thought that there’s a big buyer in the background. We’ll see. What is AA’s plan for all that cash? Hmm

This is the point; it is a compelling buy and hold for the portfolio.

It’s shifting now. 950p/1000p first stop.

I suspect a bit of FOMO will kick in - after all, it’s well undervalued. 10-12k boepd, with plan to develop Arran (to give another 5000+), generating EBITDA over US$100m and with over US$120m cash. (US$50m restricted). Stable operating environment a key differentiator with other O&G. Board interested in 30% equity. Reviewing acquisitions etc. Margins $30/barrel ish. Decommissioning costs are a negative, but actually big tax benefits here.

With cash at £2m, cash raise not required at this stage in the business. Assets have got to be worth £3-5m as they stand. Isn’t 1p (£6m cap) a fairer valuation? CEO was buying at 70p and has options at 90p.

Maybe I underplayed the cash - could be closer to US$3m.

Makes a material difference to cash balance - reducing risk significantly. Cash balance now circa US$2m. Market cap of £3m. Potential divestment of Dalafin/ takeover target. Gold prices continue to rise. Further results due. I want to hear more about those “bonanza” grades.

News very welcome this morning.

Page 8 for anyone interested.

Looking at the presentation linked in to today’s RNS, new well result IG103, average daily production to date is 1,795 boepd. Recoverable gas estimated at more than 30MMm3 (1Bn scf). “Last well to exceed this average in first month of production was brought online in 2006) - that’s some result!

Took a few more today. CEO was buying at 70p, has options at 90p. Placing was at 50p. Gold price well into the 1300s, far above the 1180 lows in 2018. The “IAMGOLD” buyout of strategic asset looks more likely than last week. Cash should be well over US$1m still - with tax/vat receipts pending. News due on their other assets. £3m cap is key re my investment. A bit lower than my original entry, but a more attractive risk.

Appears to be some activity here. Sells or buys at 5.05/5.06?

Got to consider the very limited downside risk also. Share buy back was at 560. Company Director has been buying from 540-680 in last couple of months. Is there 10% downside risk - I would say Yes. Anymore than that - I can’t see it unless Brent oil drops to the 30s (which I don’t think the Saudis would allow) or Gas prices halve. The upside has to 3-5 times current cap. We know that Arran will come into play. We also know that they are searching for acquisitions. Most importantly, our Exec Chairman owns close to 30% equity.

I added to my position today fellow stakeholders. Not without risk - could be very exciting opportunity though at these prices.

Like many others here, I have missed out before when failing to hold compelling investment opportunities. Bushveld Minerals at 8p will stay with me for a while. We all have these.

There are some factors that we can’t control - timing of RNSs, Twitter excitement, profit-taking etc. Each to their own, but with this, I feel that you have to allow it time for market mechanics to play out. It may re-rate tomorrow. It may not for six months. We don’t know. What we do know is the facts of the investment opportunity, which are compelling.

Volume up. Exciting opportunity at £3m cap.

The fundamentals make it a compelling buy. Plenty of people look at investing in low chance high risk drills. This produces 11,200 boepd as at December 2018. Arran will add close to 6,000 boepd. Arran capex and decommissioning costs have to be considered, but they have over US$120m cash, looking to acquire assets - and this is after share buy back of close to 20% stock. Shows a lot of confidence from the board. It will re-rate.