Member Info for mbingo

Big question is what are Rockrose going to buy with all their cash? Lots of options out there.

This is the start of a turnaround story. Cash flow generated in 2018 well up on prior year. Massive success in January with new well online with over 1700 boepd. UNB produced most gas record - it’s enormous! 90m plus reserves. Potential cash injections from legal proceedings. As of 2018, more attractive taxes apply. New board that will deliver.

That Baron chap - he’s an open, credible investor...

No large delayed sells. Are Macquarie done selling? That would jump start the share price!!

Have been a number of large buys going through - fantastic to see!

Someone hoovering them up....

And no costs. Very well-considered placement. Small raise to better position assets.

There won’t be any churn; the capital has been taken up by two family offices and the directors. One family is an existing holder - represents circa 10% of total share capital. De-risks balance sheet - and gives them better leverage re sales/off take agreements. Very good result.

No denying that this is seriously cheap. Also seemed last week that we had big buyers taking advantage of the Macquarie sells. Who knows what it will do in one month. Very solid start to the week...

Quarterly production and 2018 annual report to be announced in April. Fundamental shift to production at UNB, worth approx 3000 boepd to JKX. Efficiencies in cost also. Plus of course new 1700 boepd from January well success at JKX (10k production!), all for less than £80m market cap.... !!!

Market seems to have overlooked positive developments at UNB:

“
PrJSC MC Ukrnaftoburinnya published its production results for 2018:

Gas production for 2018 amounted to 533 million m3, which is 37% more than in 2017 and 206% more than in the same period of 2016.
Oil and condensate production increased by 69% compared to 2017 and by 249% compared to 2016, amounting to 72 ktons of oil and condensate.”

Worth looking at UNB news, where JKX hold 10% share to get a feel for the upside here:

This is the first well, which we completed in new year 2019. As a result of successful well drilling and completion, the daily production rate of natural gas at the Sakhalin field exceeded the mark of 2.4 million m3. This year we plan to increase gas production of UNB by at least 30%. It will be possible due to further drilling of new wells, but to a greater extent it will be promoted by implementation of ambitious program of well workovers,” stated Michael Bakunenko, Chairman of the Executive Board of PrJSC MC Ukrnaftoburinnya.

Nope. My view based on current assets/production is simply that we have not seen the impact of the share buy back of last year yet, largely due to Macquarie selling. Once this stops, I would expect to see the re-rate towards 1500p. Will it double in 6 weeks - unlikely, given market mechanics. Could easily add 50% in that time though based on no news at all in my view. An acquisition/ a dividend - may do more.

At least 3 lots of big late buys reported just now (at 740 and 737 from yesterday) - tables have turned here; Macquarie sale no longer holding this down.

Agree. It is easy to see how this could double up quickly - with combination of Macquarie finishing their sale and one ii coming on board. The Blake and Ross extension of cash flow until at least 2029 de-risks this substantially. Last time I looked, Blake was producing 3000 boepd. That’s a lot of cash. Decommissioning no longer a consideration for these assets for 10 years!

Nice to see some consolidation at all time highs. 30k shares sold yesterday notified today too. The volume of buys overwhelming Macquarie sells. Would expect updated broker note soon. Fair value still a long way away. Is there a new institution buying in - that would be interesting,

possibly over egged that - 45 working days x 20k = 900k. Anyway, as you say, expect it will move "pretty fast" once they are done. Fair value got to be closer to 1500p-2000p after todays update.

Interesting. Certainly lots of retail - another institution would be great support to the price.

Comment from twitter: Rockrose Energy. Well we have the volume now "From SharePad: Today's volume of 293K compares to the 10 day and 50 day average volumes of 104K and 69K"

20k share sell popped up from yesterday (pre rns).

If Macquarie are selling 20k shares a day (reasonable based on average volumes and sales), would take 1.5 months to complete sale, but with this sort of volume, could be done any day.

Buying into close - always good to see. (for those stock watching)

Great Volume. 9th Jan was date that Macquarie reached 7.66%. (965k shares). Reckon that they have been seeling 20k/day on average. Bigger volume days like today though .. hmm. Can't be that far away from being done.