The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
To characterise Trek’s post as a ‘disgrace and blight on LSE’ and to filter him seems very much like ‘cancel culture’.
Different opinions should be welcomed. Trek made a well reasoned & stipulated post as to why he/she has concerns. The post itself stated that the poster is eager for the interims.
If you don’t agree with someone’s post or think they may have something wrong either enter into a dialogue as to why you beg to differ or just don’t respond.
But, to characterise it as a ‘disgrace & blight’ is uncalled for.
Trek - speaking of cash. There’s a chunky prepayment (receivable) of £8.8m at year-end. That’ll either be for trial cost and/or manufacturing. It gives us some headroom for 2021 cash.
wpa5 - what you are referring to, I think, was a question asked by Katie during a Proactive interview from earlier this year with regard to an EUA application.
An interim analysis evaluating the primary end points of SG018 was done to serve as a checkpoint in determining whether the trial should proceed or be halted.
SG018 was sufficiently delayed in my view to warrant an EUA and it would make perfect commercial sense to do so provided the data supports it. The reason being that if Synairgen is to supply drug to hospitals prior to and during the whole of the winter/autumn then it can only be achieved by applying for an EUA based on interim data. If not we’re probably looking at Feb/Mar next year for supplies to start. Could be earlier if we’re lucky.
At this point SNG001 seems to be the best potential treatment - we need to scoop while that’s still the case. And, even though the Government are ruling out lockdowns they will have no choice but to bring them back if hospitals are overrun again - so we need SNG001 desperately.
It’s been filled now, but advertised for since early this year.
Titania - that’s exactly what they did with their Orange Belgium investment i.e. prevented a minority squeeze out by amassing just a big enough investment. Their 11% stake in Synairgen has achieved that goal so they may not continue to buy further.
goldforefinger - I suggest you review the public announcements by Polygon. Your statement is not reflective of their strategies. Refer to the link below.
https://www.polygoninv.com/eventdrivenpressreleases/
No, the million refers to doses, not treatments.
https://mobile.twitter.com/The_MRC/status/1435231780530003976
And, before you all get exited about manufacturing being switched on the following morning, remember that BEFORE that can even happen Synairgen needs to:
- Complete the paperwork and submit an application for approval. That takes time.
- Then authorities will review the application. That takes time.
- Once and if approved can commercial contracts be finalised and signed. That (may) take some time.
So chill a bit and tame the excitement.
To add to Matml74’s comment. That’s because SNG001 can only be administered under MAP to patients similar to those included in the phase II (SG016) trial. ICU patients were excluded from the trial.
To be the real white knight I hope the phase III interim results were used for an EUA application provided they were good otherwise me might miss (part of) this winter. It does concern me a bit.
Just to add. The patent I described is ‘world wide’.
Then there is another approved patent registered in Canada and the US of which the description is ‘Interferon-beta and/or lambda for use in treating rhinovirus infection in the elderly.’
All Synairgen’s other approved patents are for IFN beta. Plus, they’re not developing an IFN alpha drug and so they cannot patent IFN alpha.
Doc83 - the current approved patents are for influenza like illness. The following four characteristics define the patent - in summary:
1) IFN beta
2) hospitalised patient
3) administered by nebulisation
4) Influenza like illness (where symptoms are specified)
One patent is pending relating to the treatment of COPD patients with IFN beta who are on corticosteroids. I imagine it’ll cover influenza and covid-19.
Three Covid-19 patents are pending and I can only think they are similar in nature to the approved ones.
Details of the pending patents are not available, except for the description.
https://patents.google.com/?assignee=Synairgen&oq=Synairgen
No it’s not. Have you reviewed Synairgen’s other patents for clues as to why it’s not infringement?
1) PE is not based on sales, but profits after tax.
2) To give some context with regard to the Numis price target of £10 per share. In short it was based on an upfront fee/milestone pmt of £100m plus royalties of 15% on sales of £2.4bn per annum. (£2k per treatment.) Applied to that was a net profit after tax % of roughly 72% and a PE of six was used.
Note, RM made it clear that the company wants to, and I’m sure they will be, reap the rewards from covid-19. So either we’ll be selling directly or negotiate a higher royalty %.
Have a read through some of the latest event driven press releases by Polygon. It’ll give you an idea of how aggressive and ambitious they are.
https://www.polygoninv.com/eventdrivenpressreleases/
Here’s an article which I shared with the board a few weeks back suggesting, amongst other things, that the early administration of recombinant type 1 IFN may restrain subsequent hyperinflammation.
The results of SG016 hospital suggested late administration is beneficial. I guess the question is what is the definition of ‘early’ in the context of the various stages of pathogenesis and what exactly happens during these stages. It’d be great if one of the experts can opine on this further.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41577-021-00588-x
'The virus-intrinsic and host-intrinsic dampening of the interferon response in SARS-CoV-2 infection should compromise antiviral immunity but may also contribute to unrestrained cytokine release by removing this negative regulator of inflammasome activity. Unbridled inflammasome activation can drive severe disease complications.'
'Early administered recombinant type I interferon might not only restore an innate antiviral immune response to better control SARS-CoV-2 but might also simultaneously restrain subsequent hyperinflammation.'
Here’s a paper from 2011 on exogenous IFN-Beta’s anti-viral and anti-inflammatory properties. Prof Sir Holgate and Prof Donna Davies are amongst the authors.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21329968/
‘Primary bronchial epithelial cells s from asthmatic donors have a normal antiviral response to exogenous IFN-ß. The ability of IFN-ß to suppress viral replication suggests that it might limit virus-induced exacerbations by shortening the duration of the inflammatory response.’
Forgot to mention Argentina is missing from the list. As far as I know we only have one site which is in Buenos Aires.
Today’s update focused only on the listing of additional recruitment sites. Below is a list of all countries and their respective number of recruitment sites (99 in total), all of which are actively recruiting. Numbers in square brackets are the new sites.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/history/NCT04732949?A=5&B=6&C=merged#StudyPageTop
United States x 5 [1]
Belgium x 4
Brazil x 6 [5]
Columbia x 2 [1]
France x 6 [1]
Germany x 2 [2]
India x 11 [2]
Israel x 5
Italy x 8 [1]
Mexico x 5 [5]
Netherlands x 2
Portugal x 5
Romania x 4 [4]
Serbia x 4
Spain x 10 [1]
United Kingdom x 20 [1]
Doc - as you suggest it seems like the companies make the progression announcements when given go ahead, while the NIH/ACTG only do at initial enrolment, removal from trial and results from phase III.
sparkyboy1 - nope. Not really interested.
As of late the ACTG is making the formal announcements. Here’s the BRii announcement.
https://actgnetwork.org/spotlights/
Neither Bristol Myers Squibb nor SAb Biotherapeutics made any announcements on progressing to phase III. It’s merely the NIH not having their ducks in a row by updating protocols without formal announcements. They should know better.
mact4 - Synairgen is not allowed to make any announcements re ACTIV-2 unless given the go ahead by the NIH. It’s not our trail.
It seems many an investor contacted Consilium about it which may explain why I received an unsolicited email from them.