The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
Skid.
I don't agree. I think they said they had enough cash for operations. Honestly, someone thought that $3m cash was enough? I said many times they were short of cash. In this industry the BS is king and you need WC before deployments to build inventory.
I'm happy that they improve the WC position but unhappy with the discount.
They maybe said that because they had other projections or to reduce the cost of equity.
One year ago was at a call at RADA and they said many times no cash was needed. They raised in a month and the stock and company are good and perform well. It is not new.
we were all the summer at 40-45p and in a few days run fast to 55p. So honsetly thats not that crazy.
Imagine if they had issued a month ago at 25p...
yes Dallo. This board is becoming mad as well. Sad.
The placing was not a surpise as evryone could know that with $3m of cash they were short of WC.
The only discussion is about the price, why not 40 or 45p, and Dallo already said the reason or part of it.
The rise from 40 to 55 was very fast and caused by unsophisticated imvestors that went crazy, as you said
skid
I've seen that many times. Is not new. I am surprised you are surprised.
Tons of information today so I'm happy to update.
It seems that the UEP and Indian OEM are well ahead of my expectations in terms of potential, the rest of the lines remain intact.
Therefore I now expect:
-2021: unchanged $3.5-4.5M
-2022: $8-12M, not downplaying shortages
-2023: $20-30M
-2024: $30M+
That's obviously *without* including DUs, China UPF, new deals, acceleration in any line. Significant optionality to this model.
I ran the numbers and dWACSO seems 83M accounting for 100% dilution and $18M cash at no burden.
Therefore my base model of $30M at 85M shares supports 155p of valuation in 3 years, assuming 20x E and no value to the net cash and no value to optionality. 4.5x potential to today's placing price.
I think this model is very likely given any failure in a business line, because that would be compensated by 5G. Optionality is sales anywhere from $30 to 70M.
I think risk today is much lower with a stronger balance sheet, and 80p looks like the key level to completely de-risk the stock and the business. At that level, they would have sufficient working capital for all the deployment plans.
I also expect the next few months with many news from enet, and today placing tells me that this is even likely than what I thought the last week. Clearly, enet is overloaded and they needed the cash today to build inventory in advance (remember the shortages) and give trust to the customers. I am not happy with the placing price, 40-45p would have been much better, but I think that David and Mark are not stupid and this is for a reason.
couldnt agree more...
W warrants average cost is close to 50p. We have an strong tailwind to get 80p soon as the company will have access to ~$10M in cash there.......
I am scared w what I am reading here.
You have tons of date today... Happy monday :)))
Wireless Connectivity 5G Core Vendor
~$1m contract
for 1000 units
Customer shipment
during 2021 reached to
10,000 units *********
https://ethernitynet.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Company-Presentation-for-Website-27092021.pdf
Dell is working with Dish and Vodafone.
Silicom is working with Dish and Dell through eAsic Accelerator. Now we need to find out where Enet is
Dallo
Fully agree. What the market is pricing in is the first stage of development. Field trials are succeeding and the first production orders are coming in. We didn't have that the last 4 years. But still, the derisking is not here as I said yesterday.
I think Tarana will be the first one giving significant numbers. Then I hope to have news about the DU and other segments (Indian OEM, avionics, china, licensing).
Plenty of upside at a cost of still risk. When risk comes down, the share price very up. IMHO
Thanks to you!
The story unfold could be bright execution here, giving $70M sales by 2025 when the sector is booming, 30% NPM and 20x E is US$5.25 per share excluding all the divindends paid and the net cash by that time...
Plenty of upside... :-)
Not really. You read my article. Based on $25M sales at 30% NPM and 65M shares outstanding, 20xE is 165p+.
-I don't think right now (yet), with the data that we have from the company and close to it (sorry Tracy ;-)), that 2023 sales will be at this level ($25M), but there is a chance if 2022 is as expected ($10M+).
-Also, I think we will have extra dilution, 75-80M shares at the end of the day, and maybe 30% NPM is still to aggressive for this low "level" of sales. We look forward, but maybe the market will not be ready to apply a 30% NPM as a proxy.
-I have doubts with the Gross Margin model. It is going to be 50%+ for sure, but there is a significant difference if it is 70% or 60%.
So, overall, you have to discount back 160p and maybe apply an extra discount = ~120p. Obviously optionality is priced at 0 in here, but right now we still need to see many things, which I have not seen, but I think is likely we will see. And look, I will be happy to update the model IF RNS go as expected.
Right now that's my view.
Tracy
You are right IF we have the right news the coming 6months. I think that is very liklely to happen and I project 120p by the end of 2022.
We should have many updates from them very soon, imho...
the stock is hungry...
Posted an update at SumZero
I think 500-1000$ per unit makes sense, but the significance of this deal is beyond the numbers!
And 1000 units only the v. beginning. Enet is starting to look like a potential monster! We didn't have this a year ago, and I hope/expect many more announcements during the end of 2021...
$6m for a 1k orders I think is too much
Dallo
Never been in Malaga but I am from Menorca, Spain.
Moving to barcelona next week and Sri lanka at the end of the month hopefully.
It has been a very busy summer.