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Why are ITM tweeting about a competitor who supplies electrolysers to the market? No wonder ITM aren't announcing orders I don't agree with a amarketing stratgey that gives free advertising to competitors that are going to put you out of business. However I may be oudated in my view as there is a precedence as Teso and Sainsbury's TV adverts go onabout price matching Aldi, so Aldi get free advertising.
JeffMills - you start off with saying "it is nonense " but then go on to show why it isn't and make some interesting points that highlight some risks associated with ITM and the developing electrolyser market PEM in general. I said a "dent in prospects" (and) if "technology/cost work out", not wiping out PEM.
The making ammonia for fertiliser is one of the main area where green hydrogen can replace ff hydrogen with "less disruption" than other areas and many large overseas propsects being considered have been documented on the board.
Topsoe have been around since the first commercial making of ammonia and to be developing SOEs indicates there is mileage in them. If it was a fly by night company, I would have not posted. They have won an order (even if it may not go ahead) whereas ITM have nothing of note recently.
With regard to supply of materials for SOE, it looks a good opportunity for a tie up with a Chinese manufacturer as a number of PEM manufatcurers have done.
Your market point on PEM is good at 30% to 60 % so it gives a good idea of market size that the PEM manufacturers are looking at and at this stage nobody knows which technology will dominate .
Alpha- I hope you are right with bigger orders to come, as Topsoe have won the worlds biggest electrolyer order using solid oxide electrolsyers, an alternative technology to ITM's PEM electrolyers to make green ammonia. Allegedly more efficient in ammonia production due to uilisation of waste heat. If the technology/cost advantage work out, then it make a dent into ITM, NEL etc prospects.
https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/topsoe-wins-world-s-largest-ever-hydrogen-electrolyser-order-in-5gw-green-ammonia-deal/2-1-1299119
Re £750 m cap, they have 350m cash in hand and physical assets and technology to sell, so anything in 75 -90p is a good price as a takeover target
Interesting post. Below is a link from Jan 2022 that gives project technical details as well as participants including Linde subsiduary, costs and time line ( always optimistic especially in light of the complexity of the total project !). 18 months expected from Jan 2022 to an final invesment decision.
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/formal-launch-of-south-africas-first-green-ammonia-project-on-tuesday-2022-01-12/rep_id:3650
A lot of hot air today about people with degrees in non technical subjects making "incorrect" policy decisions. Well here's a view from Michael Liebreich's with a master’s degree in engineering from the University of Cambridge. He says that long distance transportation of H2 is not viable and we going to have to love blue hydrogen. I can hear gnashing of teeth! https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/not-going-to-be-a-thing-it-will-be-too-expensive-to-ship-hydrogen-around-the-world-says-liebreich/2-1-1293562
It is all about timing of the mega project investements to really kick off the hydrogen market. At present we haven't had anything more than pilot projects. I don't think it will be as quick as we would like and patience is required. The issues are beginning to aired and will effect all elctroyser manufacturers and hence will knock all share prices in the sector. https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/dont-blame-us-electrolyser-producers-being-held-back-by-lack-of-green-hydrogen-fids/2-1-1248444
Interesting article. The lack of sales is not helping build the ITM brand and makes it vulnerable to cheaper import. Appears that alkaline type technology will be initially underpressure from cheap imports but membrane technology wouldn't be far behind to succumb. Still time for iTM to get their act together but the clock is ticking.
https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/exclusive-chance-is-high-that-china-will-take-over-global-hydrogen-electrolyser-market-in-similar-way-to-solar-sector-bnef/2-1-1230106
I can't find anything about this on the NEL website . Is it a Monday morning failure of my part?!
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/NEL-ASA-1413121/news/Nel-ASA-Key-information-relating-to-subsequent-offering-to-be-carried-out-by-Nel-ASA-39843512/
https://www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/leading-european-hydrogen-electrolyser-makers-add-over-250m-to-factory-expansion-funds/2-1-1191406
" 3) made wind turbine installations (off shore and on shore) subject to nimbies
So the dumb Brexiteers continue to fight for fossil fuels and against the humans who vote for them" .
The planning controls were brought in in 2012 under Cameron in2012, a remainer . https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/planning-onshore-wind-farms-kwarteng-b2041587.html
Bellers, thank you. Cheaper capex than PEM type and agree doesn't suffer from membrane deterioration. However nothing is for nothing and CPH2 electroylser design leads to in my opnion an increased safety risk via the hydrgoen / oxygen flammable mixture. I can't think of any industrial examples where flammable mixtures e.g hydrogen, hydrocarbon with oxygen present are processed together when it can be avoided. I wonder if an independent safety consultant has carried out a HAZID study or HAZOP.
Truthfactory, Bellers. What are your thoughts on risk regarding the safety aspects of mixing hydrgogen and oxygen in the electrolyer? Cannot see if any independent safety assessment on this. Reports of explosion in existing industrial units in chlor alkali electrolyers often point to oxygen ingress.
In his todays Sunday times column, Ian talks about the recent rise and fall of ITM shares - nothing new there. However in the comments section one person mentioned the second giga factory and the possibility of an international one next. In response to this Ian replied that that there was important news on the horizon at Sheffield and intends to remain long in ITM.
aandi, thanks for your input re JV. I am surprised that a nearly 3x increase in "MW sales" leads to only a 16% increase in revenue. I'm must be missing something as I don't think that is good!
Looking at the rns for future growth, regarding the backlog + pipeline figures. On one line it shows figures of a 179% change for MW whilst on the lower line for £ it shows figures for 16% change. Anyone provide the basis of these figures?
jinglejangle - agree hold for the long term or buy more to average down but of course beware of the falling knife and who knows the bottom Berenberg have put a target price of 300
https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/lon-itm-a-buy-or-sell-right-now-2022-01-2/
You are correct that there is an excess of "wind capacity" in the north under some conditions and constraint payments have to be made to operators to stop electicity generation. National Grid states that the infrastucture hasn't the capacity required to bring all the power to the south but have proposals to rectify it (Network Options Assessment publication) . So it appears that it currently benefits operators to turn off wind capacity than invest in an electroyser/hydrogen production.
In addition to bilbo comments on banning grey, blue hydrogen etc, mulitple orders for hydrogen will start when there is an excess of green electrical energy that cannnot be consumed directly by users. Long way to go for that, so will be in 2030s I guess so you need to be in for long term
try again
www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/itm-power-management-answers-your-questions-ii520489?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NEW-DLY-ENGAGE-afternoon_round_up_110621%20(1)&utm_content=newsletter&spMailingID=13848743&spUserID=MTM4NzM1NDEzNjQ1S0&spJobID=1772906946&spReportId=MTc3MjkwNjk0NgS2
apologies if already posted
ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/itm-power-management-answers-your-questions-ii520489?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NEW-DLY-ENGAGE-afternoon_round_up_110621%20(1)&utm_content=newsletter&spMailingID=13848743&spUserID=MTM4NzM1NDEzNjQ1S0&spJobID=1772906946&spReportId=MTc3MjkwNjk0NgS2