When will Cine really reopen?1 Feb 2021 23:07
I'm new here and a very low -level investor, not in Cineworld I might add. I worked until 2018 in film distribution and am passionate about the cinema experience.
The recent Bond postponement triggered the delay of a significant number of other big releases until mid-late Summer at the earliest. This makes a Spring/ early Summer re-opening look increasingly unlikely - Mooky closed all his cinemas in the UK and US in early October precisely because of a Bond delay and the slew of other release postponements this triggered. He knew there wouldn't be business to make it economically viable and he was correct. Odeon and Vue followed suite. It will be at least another few months before there are enough "tentpole" releases to justify reopening of larger sites and even this depends on a successful vaccine rollout here and in the US. Curzon, a much smaller chain, will not be reopening their cinemas until mid - July at the earliest - this is significant because they remained open until the end of December showing mainly new titles which were simultaneously being streamed on various streaming platforms, notably Netflix. It's safe to say they have concluded that this is not a viable business model, at least until the virus is being more successfully managed. They will also probably also need titles which have an exclusive theatrical window.
I hope and am confident that the cinema experience will return and that some deal will be hammered out between the studios and Cine about a reasonable theatrical window. Exclusively streamed films will never generate the revenue needed for the movie industry to survive. The question is will the chains be able to survive being mothballed for perhaps another six or seven months? If yes, I'm sure the SP will stabilise, but investors will need some confidence that this is possible