China & co- production20 Aug 2023 06:50
A global recession will no doubt reduce steel demand and therefore, co-production of V will fall in China. However, investment in VFB projects in China continues to grow and with it, an ever increasing demand on the worlds V supply.
China’s supply of V is almost entirely through steel co-production, so what happens if they produce a lot less V due to lowered steel demand yet VFB demand goes higher? The answer is China becomes a net importer of V and supply is squeezed. What do you think happens to V prices at that point?
The change in China’s rebar standards for V back in 2018 placed a small squeeze, what’s coming next IMO is far, far beyond that and V prices back in 2018 went up six fold…
Many look at BMN’s SP right here and say ‘oh I dunno, probably should wait’. Those same people will most likely buy in at multiples of this level in the future.