Member Info for mammyoko

The PUSU can be extended for virtually any length of time with the agreement of the Directors.

The fact that there has been no further information is a positive to me - if the offer was anywhere near 400p they would have announced that and told the market that they were rejecting it as materially undervaluing the company. Hence,my belief that there is a credible offer at a material premium to any previous offers that the BoD are seriously considering and which is sufficient inducement to a blocking shareholder/competitor to also consider selling. If you were Vince what price would you sell at having recently offered to buy the company at 400p? Doesn't seem likely you would accept 450p or 500p in that position, hence my belief that the offer is at a material premium, possibly 600p.

I don't see this trading down to 250p if an offer can't be agreed. I would imagine it's more likely to settle at around 300p.

The longer the delay, I would say, the more likely that a credible offer has been made that all parties are considering. I don't know why any company would get involved in a ruse - a fairly risky tactic with no benefit to them

Drifting lower on no volume. Nobody knows anything here or the volume would be MUCH bigger

I believe that any offer would need to be significantly higher than Eco offered in 2021 to be even worth considering by the BoD of Good and to persuade Vince to sell his blocking holding to a new competitor. I have no idea what that figure might be but I don't consider 600p to be fanciful as it would still only imply an ex-cash forward pe of around 10. That seems very cheap for a new entrant to gain access to the UK market and instantly acquire 1m customer relationships. That would take years for Esyasoft to build up if they even could.

The obstacle, if any, will be Vince. Esyasoft have the money and Good are cheap so if this fails it's because Vince blocked it

No institutional investors have sold. What you are seeing on those RNS's are market-makers trading their book

Consensus for both FY23 and FY24 is much lower than that and has been reduced in the last week

Stockopedia reported consensus forecasts

6th June 2023

Adjusted* Basic Earnings per Share 2.64p

Considering the current order book, the expected rise in the cost base and with supply chain challenges diminished, the Board believes that Oxford Metrics is well placed to deliver full year results ahead of current market expectations.

3rd August - forecast FY23 eps 3.523p FY24 4.163p

10th August - forecast FY23 eps 3.235p FY24 3.895p

i.e. reduction in forecast of 8.2% for FY23 and 6.5% for FY24

what is going on here? Slipping out a profit warning reduction through the brokers while claiming they will be ahead of forecasts