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IP Sale agreement: This encapsulates the divestment of a number of non-core patents from Nanoco to Samsung, with Nanoco receiving a fully paid up, perpetual and global licence on the divested patents. Neither of the two patents due to be presented at trial were included in the sale.
Although the Group has never publicly estimated the potential value of an award from successful litigation, TPI research of 6 June 2022 suggested this could be in the range of US$200m to US$300m for Samsung’s historical US infringement alone. Should its actions be considered specifically wilful, however, the final figure could be a multiple of this. In recognition of this, and the fact that Nanoco’s cadmium-free quantum dot (‘CFQD’) technologies remain central to Samsung’s continued dominance of the international market for premium displays, the South Korean giant may become inclined to seek an early out-of-court global settlement. This offers transformational potential for both the Group’s prospects and shareholder value as it strives to build its technologies into a self- sustaining organic business.
According to the Korean Herald, Samsung’s flagship Neo QLED TV sold 4.64 million units in the January to June period last year, a 16.3% jump on 2021’s first-half. Since its debut in 2017, Samsung is estimated to have sold an accumulative 36.3 million Neo QLED TVs.
Applying the low-end valuation model, we assume the QD-enhanced TVs had an average sales price of US$2,200–2,500 compared with the average price of a top of the range TV without QDs of c US$1,000. Had the alleged patent infringement not taken place, we believe that the volumes of QDs Samsung required would have been higher than Nanoco could have produced in Runcorn, so it would have licensed its technology to partners, primarily Dow Chemical, and would have received significant royalties. If we assume that the cost of the QDs in each TV is equivalent to 10% of the uplift in price between QD and non-QD TV displays, and that Nanoco would have received a 12% royalty (as per our May 2017 initiation note) on these QDs, this represents US$14.4–18.0 in lost revenue per TV display or US$200–250m between April 2015 and the present in the United States alone.
Top end: damages based on the premise that Samsung’s QD TV market in the US is wholly enabled by Nanoco’s QD technology, so the value of the lost revenue would be derived from the total value of that market.
Mid: damages based on the premise that the QD-enabled display is a high proportion of the additional value of a QD-enhanced TV compared with a standard TV.
Low end: damages based on the value only of the QD film in the displays.
Historical precedent shows that any final agreement is likely to be a one-off payment, with no forward royalties, for the full and final settlement of all current and future patent litigation between the Parties in all jurisdictions NOT JUST US
20 Million Screens sold since 2015 worldwide- value only of the QD film in the displays between $14 and $18 per display in the middle say $16 gives $320m with early settlement discount say a 3rd leaves $213 Nano to get 50/80%.
While the ongoing litigation only covers the United States, we understand that Samsung would also be likely to seek a global negotiated settlement covering sales in other territories. Nanoco would retain 50–80% of the award, depending on its magnitude, and would have to pay UK corporation tax on the amount received, which could be offset against £36m losses.
https://www.edisongroup.com/edison-tv/nanoco-executive-interview/30853/
5.14 into the the interview
We’re able to identify a key share price trigger level at 73.5p, our software assuring us movement above this level should produce results. At present, the share is trading at around the 65p level, so it’s doubtless worth keeping an eye open in the days ahead.
Should the price exceed 73.5p, we’re able to calculate an initial target level at 87p with secondary, if exceeded, working out at a longer term (or next day in current conditions!) 93p.
The secondary is especially interesting, representing a new all-time high for the share and taking it into a region where we can present a distant looking 114p as the highest level we can actually calculate. Please remember, there is absolutely no rule inhibiting a share price bettering our “maximum” levels but, invariably, this will represent a point around which some turbulence is possible.
Valuation
Our target price remains under review given the difficulty at this time of forecasting the
potential revenues of SARS-CoV-2 antibody and antigen tests (both lab-based as well as
POC tests in the case of Mologic’s and the POC test manufactured for the UK-RTC) with
any degree of accuracy.
As described in our research of 19 June, based on a capacity utilisation rate of 10-50% of
the expanded capacity for COVID-19 lateral flow device and ELISA test,
?Annualised revenue and gross profits for COVID-19 lateral flow tests (before labour
costs) could range from £7.9m to 39.5m and £4.0m to £20.0m, respectively.
?Annualised revenue and gross profits for ELISA antibody and antigen tests (before
labour costs) could range from £16.3m to £81.3m and £8.1m to £40.6m, respectively.
Sum-of-the-parts valuation
As described in our 19 June research report, and looking out towards FY 2022 as a
representative year post-COVID 19 disruption, it is easy to see how a sum-of-the-parts
valuation could be substantially in excess of the current market capitalisation of c.£80m.
?The existing Food Intolerance business generated sales and EBITDA in FY 2020 of
£9.2m and £4.2m, respectively, growing by c.14% and driven by a c.£1m order from
China. Stripping c.£0.7m from EBITDA to account for the Chinese contribution, the
underlying non-China business could generate c.£4.0m of EBITDA in two years, which
could command a valuation of c.£60m (15x EV/EBITDA, given 40%+ EBITDA margin).
?Assuming Chinese NMPA approval for the Food Detective self-test in the summer,
revenues could rise to £6-12m (0.5-1.0m tests) in the next couple of years with gross
profit of £4.0-8.0m, potentially larger than the current Food intolerance business. Based
on an EV/EBITDA multiple of 10x, this could be valued at £40-80m, with a value today of
£30-60m.
?VISITECT CD4 is potentially capable of generating revenues of £8-12m in the next few
years once WHO PQ approval has been received and end users have familiarised
themselves with the test’s utility, which implies test volumes of 2.5-3.8m. This would
generate gross profits of c.£5.5-8.5m, which could be valued at £55-85m, a value today
of £45-70m.
?COVID-19 UK-RTC test is a binary event. If the test is validated and CE-marked, it is
likely that over the next two years Omega will be able to supply the consortium at its
production capacity. Based on cumulative revenues of c.£15m (10m tests), this is
arguably worth up £30-45m or 2-3x sales.
?COVID-19 Mologic tests. Assuming that it utilises c.10% of its annualised capacity for
both LFD and ELISA tests, revenues could amount to c.£22m with a gross profit of
c.£11m. This is arguably worth £45-65m.
Whilst it is not clear how long the global demand for COVID-19 antibody and antigen tests
will last, we believe that it will continue for the next 12-24 months at least.
Going for growth: Omega Diagnostics AIM to revolutionise the COVID-19 testing market, August 12, 2020ShareBuyers Editorial Team
"The Mologic lab-based ELISA antibody test is CE marked and we have received first orders with the test being evaluated in 18 countries. India has approved the test and we hope to realise sales this month".
Last week the EU approved the Green Stimulus Plan, agreeing to invest more than 500 billion euros into a climate change plan including electric vehicles and renewable energy
https://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/transportation/advanced-cars/zincbased-batteries-can-provide-more-energy-safety-than-liion
If we could tap into the EU 500 Billion euro funding as a source of funding as mentioned by LR then its a game changer.
Nice post on the LinkedIn in page today , can’t post the photos here :
Sharing some images from Wardell Armstrong laboratories this week as they undertake a new floatation test on samples from Europa metals’ Toral Zn, Pb & Ag project, Castilla y Leon, Spain.
We are pleased work is progressing well on this next round of metallurgical testing with the objective of building upon the excellent recovery and grade results reported in April. Also look forward to updating the market as to our ore sorting analysis being carried out to see if the production profile can be further enhanced.
Most importantly our team around the world continue to be well while carrying out designated workstreams
Drilling Results
Core obtained from holes TOD-024 and TOD-025 was sampled and sent to ALS Laboratories in Spain, with initial results confirming the visual mineralisation as high-grade, with certain samples having to be re-assayed due to the Pb content being above the detection limit at the laboratory
I think the next assay results and METS results are going to be important , this is what the last MET report from Wardell Armstrong said: results in the context of potential future production:
The grades of lead and zinc in their respective concentrates are expected to render them marketable products from potential future production at Toral. The lead concentrate is in the mid-range when compared with other European producers, whereas the zinc concentrate is of a higher grade than most currently being produced in Europe.
The lead also contains significant levels of silver, at 1,457ppm Ag, which is expected to allow for attractive payment terms on any future production. The levels of penalty elements in both concentrates are collectively unknown and therefore cannot be benchmarked at this stage
Bearing in mind theres another 3 Billion shares in warrants that can be excercised at 0.00025, any over that is pure profit for warrant holders. Once excercised the total number of shares will be 15 billion.
Oiltap - you have no idea what DD DB under took, Don’t pretend that you know what’s really happening you and bricks can only speculate. You trying to pass on your thoughts as gospel. IF you believed in EUZ you should have taken part in the placing and got your hands on some warrants .