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You’re gradually coming round to my point of view. You need to check out the phrases ‘trading the trend’ and ‘catching a falling knife’. You are advocating catching a falling knife with no substance to your argument whatsoever.
I predicted a correction of around 20% by the end of September staring in May. As you all know the markets stopped their inexorable rise in May. We just now need to wait for the fall towards the end of September.
I’ve also predicted a big correction next year. More on that nearer the time.
It shouldn’t be painful. If you’d put a stop loss in place when I told you to you’d be sitting on a nice profit. You could then wait until there was a change in trend and reinvest or invest elsewhere.
I’ll be posting later as to why the share price is falling.
The return to profitability in the first half of the year was faster and more significant than previously expected so a step in the right direction. However, material shortages and input price inflation are causing problems. I'll be holding back from buying any shares until I know if this is a short term problem or going to develop into something more serious.
SIG expects the second half of the year to be both profitable and cash generative, with full year underlying operating profit expected to be ahead of previous forecasts. Shares in issue have about doubled over the past couple of years. If the company can get back to something like its old market capitalisation then there is around 80% upside from here.
I've got my doubts that this will happen as SIG is low margin at the best of times. That said the economy is going to experience a massive boom over the next 5 years so this should help the cause a lot.
Not a big fan of detailed technical analysis but I some of you love it. So here’s the latest which I will be completely ignoring.
Bollinger Bands indicates that the price is low. Price crossed below lower Bollinger.
Stochastic indicates the instrument is oversold. Stochastic crossed below 20.
I never said they’d do the company down. They may well prove to be very helpful in the restructuring of the company.
My own preference would be for the management of SIG to get on with things themselves without the ‘interference’ of a large investor whose goals could easily conflict.
I expect CD & R to be involved for up to 5 years so I accept I should have said medium term not short term.
Looks like bucklefern is a bit sore about the share price performance lately. It’s a shame he didn’t read my earlier posts. That’s his loss.
What do I think of an American company taking a large share in the company? Not a lot. Their investment is a drop in the ocean for them. All they are bothered about is making a good return on their investment. It may work it may not. They may help steer the ship properly or they may not.
I’m wary of a company whose main goal in life is short term large profit for themselves. Their goals could easily conflict with the goals of the SIG management.
You are very wise Beachfeont. I won't be reinvesting in the company any time soon. I need most of those indicators to improve a lot.
Anyone investing now needs to be aware that their investment is highly speculative. They also need to be prepared to lose most of what they invest if things get really bad. There are plenty of other companies to invest in with much better fundamentals.
So can all the posters who only post 'positive' comments please take a reality check and come into the real world. Newbie investors may take what you say at face value and end up losing a lot of money.
Sort yourselves out.
I never cease to be amazed by the technical analysis over reliance of some members of this forum. They think it is the be all and end all of share investing. Well its not.
I'm also staggered by the almost uniform confirmation bias prevalent on this board. Its ridiculous.
So in a small effort to redress the balance a bit here are some indicators share investors should be taking note of:
Share price down 16.8% in the last month.
The 10day/3 month volume change is - 40.1%.
The 52 week high is -19.3%.
The 50day moving average is - 4.8%.
The PE ratio is 122.5.
The Z-score indicates a high risk of bankruptcy.
The F- score is only 3 out of 9.
No dividend.
I could go on.
Is it any wonder the share price is going down in line with my excellent prediction?
House building is going to increase a lot over the next 5 years. Shares in house builders will at least double in this period. Construction in general is going to do very well. Lots of multi bagger potential.
You should have sold all your SIG shares then bought back in in October after the current correction is finished.
You are finally starting to see the light 2reincarted. You are right. There will be a big correction next year. I'll let you know the month it will start nearer the time. It will be bigger than the current correction that is already underway as I expertly predicted. It will be about 30 to 40%.
Raleigh, yes it did hit 64p before swiftly falling back to.......... 50p! Hahaha!
Do like I do. Allow for a bit of volatility.
Here's some badly needed advice for you. You're going to end up well out of pocket just relying on the company reports. I can't believe that's your investing strategy. Then to top it all it seems like you're in and out of the markets like a yoyo giving up any potential profits in fees.
Crazy way to carry on. You need to learn patience and lose the gambling habit.
'The only view I take particular note of is the company's, to end December.'
In that case then Raleigh you are relying on very little, biased information. Do yourself a favour and sell all your shares before you lose any more money. It would be much safer under the bed.
Investing on that basis is pure madness.