Member Info for mact4

Thank you Torny
Really appreciate you sharing your detailed analysis.

No idea. At the moment, there is some confluence at 330 and 920 zone. More confluence will show itself over time.
Possibility and probability.

gkb47 : Read my post carefully:
1st line: can show the degree of probability and possibility of price action
Last para: This triangle pattern is NOT yet confirmed

And finally, last line, first para: Note: The following is not for the faint hearted.

Think the SNG team know their delivery was poor. The complete version was down beat. RM tried to rally towards the end and you could tell by his closing comments as he rushed to close the meeting that he knew the delivery especially from the profs, had been poor.

I've said before and reiterate again - charts can show the degree of probability and possibility of price action. It is news and sentiment which then determines what happens.
I'm a fan of Elliot Wave count and fibonacci numbers for retracement and extension.
Note: The following is not for the faint hearted.

I saw the decline from Aug to end of last year as an Elliot Wave (EW) 3-wave correction and was confident the bottom had been reached at 75-80p.
I thought that was the end of a sub wave 4 which would imply the next move was an impulse/motive wave 5 (aka price goes upwards).
I was wrong.

Price is still in the corrective phase 4 - often the most complex and difficult to read.
Having come to that conclusion, there are two possibilities for the next price pattern.
One: a descending parallel channel - don't think this is the next patterm, and very much hope this is not the next pattern.
Two: a consolidating 5 wave triangle.
There is a 3rd option but until price action indicates this 3rd option, I am working with option 2.

A corrective 5-wave triangle could be an expanding triangle but for the sake of my own mental health, I am planning and hoping for a contracting triangle!

With that hope and assumption, price should go no lower than 115-85, before a bounce back to the 130-160 region. If this is the next chart pattern, the next will be a final move down circa 90-120 region before price makes a break to above the £2 zone with a minimum price expectation of £3. Note: Prices will be come more obvious when we reach the next turning point after yesterday's SP drop.

Each of these moves within this contracting triangle will likely mirror the sentiment following news flow.

This triangle pattern is NOT yet confirmed but one support for this being the next pattern is that triangles take time to form and we now know we have some time to wait for the excellent news that the science tells us will follow. A triangle pattern completing later this year supports our expectations of news flow.

Good confirming news.

A chap from Numis also asked a question (43mins in). Useful to know if Numis has adjusted/changed their forecast.

Scinv and Skippy: points taken. I still believe in this company and holding.

I'm slowly getting over my disappointment from today. Thank god it's a long weekend!

Skippy,

I'm sorry I have not been clearer, my gripe is not about style, but about projecting confidence. They say the words but do not project confidence.

Doc: True. Thank you for pointing that out.

On the positive side, let me post this top post from the ADVFN Guild - apologies for posting without permission but it does summarise where we are very well:

There is now a clear delineation between those patients that will benefit from this treatment and those that either will not or where the treatment is not justified. For those with mild symptoms both economically and medically these were never likely to be a productive market for the treatment.. The data on the more serious conditions as measured by breathlessness are impressive. One of the problems in the results today seems to be that the cohort selection process produced too many patients with mild conditions and not sufficient numbers with more serious conditions where the drug is most effective. The very impressive results may be somewhat undermined by the small numbers but I guess this will be picked up in the phase 3 trial. ..

It is clear from the indicated future production levels of 100,000 treatments per month that the company remains optimistic that the targeted market is significant. Indicated discussions with the Indian authorities may yet produce something of real interest in terms of early orders giver the seriousness of their situation.

Analysing the implications of the RNS statement and presentation with some deep thought should conclude that prospects for this drug are as positive now as they were previously.

Yes, the news is positive - but the delivery was not.

Having re-listened to the recorded session again, I would query not just the delivery but also the platform used. Unless there is a regulatory requirement to host this session via LSE (is there?), this was clearly the wrong platform. Yes, there was market relevant information, but with those two profs leading the presentation, this would have been better billed as a scientific report with Q&A. It certainly feels more like one.

On the LSE platform, it fails to give confidence to the share price, hence the rapid drop in price (imho over reaction) unless you listen carefully and unpick the details shared.

Richlist: Now why couldn't they have given such a clear up-beat summary!

Personal choice but I am holding.
I may be disappointed with the presentation today but as many posters have said, science is still good and today's RNS has lowered the risk to our investment. But there is no doubt that the board needs to consider more closely their strengths and weaknesses.

On the chart side (only for those interested...), there is a lot of confluence of fibonnacci retracement and extension around the 120-125 region. Price should stabilise soon - I hope!

Well put, greenlabel.

This is clearly not their area of strength and they need to recognise that. Even in the few easy interviews RM has had with Katie, his presentation skill was to my mind not great (most of you just got sidetracked by Katie ;-).

I agree Torny. I saw this RNS as lowering the risk of this investment.
Still a sh*t presentation though. Price dropped the most from 9am. Still holding for the longer term but I do hope they will work on their presentation skills. Basic body language and tone is so important regardless of positive or negative news.

Sharedealer: Alright. I take your point. Not a PR team.
Then just employ a PR consultant as and when, to advise them how best to monitor their body language, and tone of voice, which data to emphasize, etc. Or at the very least, take a step back and see past their own very obvious disappointments before making such a lack-lustre performance.

Nitrokev: love that analogy! LOL.

Share-dealer: All genuine holders here support the science and the company but they really need to invest in a PR arm, or just one PR person. That would be them thinking outside the box aka that they can do it all themselves!

They also need to start with and maintain an upbeat tone. RM tried but could not manage to maintain an upbeat tone. The other two profs were just so down-beat! Yes, they need to give details but FFS concentrate more on the positives. For shame!

Absolutely agree. They need a PRperson to teach them how to conduct such a Q&A. Very disappointed with their presentation, not the results.