Member Info for LTbeliever

Https://korepotash.com/investors/analyst-research/

New investors can go to May & June 2021 and read the full research/Broker Notes.

Anum, if we go to 4p upon EPC's signing, and then favourable Broker Notes are released, 8p is doable if the financing is as expected (i.e. non-dilutive).

Not sure if a takeover is imminent or not (maybe the China trip was related to this?), but it's useful to remember these numbers:

1. Mkt cap at flotation in 2018 -- 80 million

2. Book value, with all the money spent, around 200 mln

3. Value today, at 2p - 80 million

Given that 6 years have passed by, with a lot of time/work/money spent on this project, and the Ukraine war from 2022 ongoing (meaning reduced access of Belarus/Russia potash), plus possible trade war (minimum) between West and China (esp. if Trump is elected), this means IMO that a potash mine in Africa (fastest growing region, globally, population wise) will be a major strategic asset in these turbulent times; whether China wants it, or someone else, my point is that 4p is easily achievable once the EPC is signed, maybe higher when financing details are announced.

Remember that past Broker Notes mentioned 10p+, discounted for certain risks (which are reducing as time goes by).

GLA

Thanks 99; so ASX follows LSE and LSE follows JSE?

Am I right?

Momentum attracts speculators so that's the risk IMO; they cause volatility, big swings etc which makes it difficult to make sense of all the price action; ironically, the longer the RNS is delayed, the more speculative it's all becoming.

Lots of smaller trades selling (profit taking), Vs some big BUYS during the day and towards the close (between 10k-20k). Significant?

S.Chari seems to be adding slowly but steadily, usually after RNSs when he can buy good chunks at tight spreads; each 1% added is 4mln shares. I have a hunch he'll go on adding.

That could imply another 50% rise tomorrow? who knows? are all these buyers just speculating blindly???

Farntl, it'll be old news of course, but we could still get clues on Cash burn, o/s Debtors and an update on technological progress on the various fronts, potential Sales etc.

I guess the only way is up?

If we go by previous years (bar 2022!), we'd be due to get the AFS 2023 and hopefully a decent Outlook/update for the rest of the year.

1.61 Bid

1.44 Bid

Looks like it was up 30% today on ASX?

But on the other hand, this one was not called "material", "has signed an agreement with Timser Group, a pharmaceutical company focused on women's health, with a deal value of up to £465,000."

So "material" might imply the prospects - upon success - of something bigger emanating from a particular contract?

Mozax, I only go by what the Co calls "material"; for example, back in December they called material this 550k deal;

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/APTA/material-agreement-with-genetic-medicines-company-3jyfyk3q9xuzyit.html

In any case, for sure there are more deals to come, of small and big sizes but the main one will be the 1st licensing agreement with one of the big Pharmas (brewing for 2-3 years now).

Mozax, IMO we have already seen some material deals since the lows of February, 2 of these just last week; the SP will rerate soon, I think, as by June end (2024 Y/E) the Mkt will get confirmation that any Placing is far off, if at all needed.

Also, from a technical perspective, the SP has been reaching higher "lows" and as a result, the 20 EMA has crossed the 50 EMA - this is considered bullish and is bound to attract short term traders.

In any case, the easiest way is Up, heading for 1p soon, whereas there is good support around 0.70-0.75.

Don't be surprised if he appears saying that he went long, buying a few million shares, when the SP was at 0.45!

In his defense, he was right about Brad being , to put it mildly, "not productive".

"By April 2024, MOP prices had recovered to around US$315 per tonne CFR Brazil, relatively low in the context of historic prices but improving since the start of the year. This led to demand returning, but weather patterns in 2023 affected agriculture which moderated the impact this had on prices.

The longer-term demand story for potash remains compelling: global population growth, changing dietary habits, and pressure on arable land usage, are all expected to increase the demand for potash, as well as other nutrients.

New sources of potash, not least the BHP Jansen project, are expected to come online in the next 5-10 years, but the most advanced of these are located in the traditional production centres of central Canada, Russia, and Belarus. Given transportation distances and ongoing sanctions, these are more likely to serve the markets of North America and Asia, with Europe, South America, and Africa likely to remain undersupplied for the foreseeable future."

I'm sure, as a 10% shareholder, the RoC government would probably want a grand signing ceremony - my post from last month:

RE: Getting there! RNS29 Apr 2024 08:11

Just guessing that they will NOT sign in China, but maybe they will organise - in China - when/how/who will sign in Congo, with the Minister of Mines present; so possible signing by May end? IMO