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"beginning of a new Ironveld" Kris said so we just need 2-3 good RNSs for the market to take notice; may even lead to the breakout indicated by our Chartist ally; AFS for Y/E soon out, hopefully it will bear good news on cash b/ces and cash burn.

@Smiler, by P&d are you referring to "Pnd" as in Transhaven's comment "yes we had a full on PnD crew on this (Smiler, apps, etc) "?

Re your confusion, I try to respond to each of your points.

"I thought that we have orphan drug status and were now going for FDA approval and the FDA wanted evidence of one more thing before they approve.

Once we have FDA approval we can get a partner." NFX has EU ODD, waiting imminently to also receive US ODD ("the FDA approval").

"So what is it? Orphan drug status does not justfy the insane SP increases over the last month, yes we had a full on PnD crew on this (Smiler, apps, etc) but I thought it was FDA approval we were about to get, then talks of a partner." Yes, FDA ODD approval soon, which will then allow NFX to get a development partner for an IPF drug (listen again to Dan's LSE interview, it's quite informative.

"If is it is just orphan they I am taking my money out (hit break even at 0.2) as this will only go on for many, many, many more years". Dan is saying 12 months for a clinical study so I'd say 2 years inside a development agreement but with SP rises along completion of various dev. stages. But first, the SP should jump after the FDA ODD status and then - as Dan said in the "not too distant future hopefully" - when a collaborative p/ship is announced.

"It is clear to me that Dan and others in NFX are clearly employed elsewhere and NFX is just a little side gig that either happens or does not, it does not matter to them much." The Board own 5% of the Co so just 250.000 value today but 5 mln if the Mkt cap rises by 20x - so, big incentive to succeed IMO

Soup, hi; those are numbers from NFX's own material (albeit outdated), TBH I have not seen any Broker Notes. I assume, from what you say (quoting you) "it will be used as a combination therapy. This will have an impact on the value of potential licensing deals." that the value of a licensing deal would be a lot higher now? Do we have any numbers?

IMO, NFX is very close to a licensing deal for the following reasons:

1. Co has been working on NPX002 for over 12 years, having discussions in parallel with "various potential partners" - is this BS?

2. Dan was very bullish during the recent LSE Interview, where he implied that "soon after' the US ODD designation another "partnering" RNS 'd follow,

3. Co has spent the whole of 2025 and a lot of money just on obtaining the EU ODD status and soon - I hope - the FDA ODD status,

4. Despite the big SP jump recently, the Co opted to raise just 228k (5% dilution), which -IMO- indicates that Dan is fairly confident of both the FDA ODD status and this leading to a licensing deal - either the Co is BSing about talking to various potential partners, or there are serious indications of a deal upon FDA approval.

All IMO, alternative views welcome. Please DYOR - GL to all holders!

And the presentation (p.16) states that at the Pre-clinical stage (where NFX is now, if not mistaken) there had been 2 deals with average upfront fee of £67m; I don't what market deals have occurred since and if the averages have gone up or down but IMO this is NFX's target for a licensing partner. Remember that +10 years have been spent on this "asset" so the value for the partner is both the potential of NPX002 and the shortening of the time to bring to market.

https://nuformix.com/app/uploads/2022/11/Nuformix-Non-Confidential-Corporate-Summary-November-QA-Final-v2.pdf

Co had stated, in the 2022 presentation (link posted earlier for those interested to refresh memory) on p.17 whereas p.16 explains the value potential.

Preclinical stage asset with robust IP protection - Nuformix strategy is to out-license this asset with targeted BD activities already underway

What I don't know is why it has taken Dan over 3 years to proceed to this stage.

RNS 2 days ago headed "Update re. US FDA Orphan Drug Designation Application for NXP002 Programme in IPF", where is the confusion? Everything is about ODD, further to obtaining EU's ODD.

Selling - due to AI / Bitcoin / tech (mostly) crashing in the US - is indiscriminate; the silver lining is that its timing means that by the time we hear from the FDA, most of it will have blown over. And if NFX drops a bit more, the upside is still the same (whatever it is!).

1p would equal a Mkt cap of 20mln - is this realistic?

Until now, we all understood that "FDA approval" referred to the OD designation approval by FDA; so, nothing new here.

For a - say - USD 10bln potential market and a 2 year (?) path to a "proper" FDA approval for something produced by a partner, what would NFX get in a few weeks (if a deal is 99% ready)? IMO this is the question by all. I guess we can't estimate until we see the RNS about such a deal, right?

But it seems the consensus is that the SP could jump to 1p upon ODD approval - is this reasonable to assume?

Not clear about you said; if Orphan status+partner, then 2p-5p?

What do u mean FDA approval is years off?

Hopefully, with money starting to rotate out of US & AI stocks (esp. the Mag7) - with hiccups in the meantime - SAfrica and miners (incl. AIM listed ones) will benefit in 2026.

And this from 2022; I think slides 7-8 & 16 are important; NFX 's been working on this for 12-13 years and deals at this stage averaged +60 mln upfront fee, if I understood it correctly? This is 10x current SP -- GLA!

https://nuformix.com/app/uploads/2022/11/Nuformix-Non-Confidential-Corporate-Summary-November-QA-Final-v2.pdf

This is from NFX's own presentation from 2021, the numbers probably need updating but it's a good guide on the potential of a deal?

https://nuformix.com/app/uploads/2022/11/Nuformix-Corporate-Deck-April-2021_vF.pdf

I note that the mkt cap back then was 14mln Vs today's of 6mln, when we are a few days away from an FDA approval.

Just to add that, there should be some rotation of money out of US AI stocks and given that UK and pharma are considered cheap/defensive respectively, there may a trickle of some funds into AIM? If Reeves adds maybe some incentives in 2 weeks, who knows?

Don't know if there is any Broker Research on this, but IMO the devil will be in the details i.e. the terms of such a licensing / partner agreement, as these would determine how much/when NFX would get cash?

Earlier, IMO; even if Dan had sat on the FDA request for a few days, there is no reason to think that during last week the Co did not work towards preparing the data for the FDA query (given that it was readily available). And as the FDA request came near the 90-days end, again IMO, it'd be safe to say that this was the 1st and last of any queries; meaning that once the FDA receive NFX's response, the approval should be a matter of days (1 week or so, plus 1 week for NFX to prepare the RNS, maybe after adding some "sugar" after discussions with licensing partners?); by December end, I would say.

4x oversubscription means funds of 880k appx were "committed" to extra shares - this implies that appx GBP660k were not satisfied, hence some of these funds may still flow into shares @0.30, or whatever the mkt price is over the next few days, in anticipation of the (final?) FDA approval. IMO

This means 7% of s/holders didn't take their allocation up (100/93) i.e. GBP15k worth of shares.

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