Member Info for LTbeliever

I do not disagree... there is a big seller always ready to pounce!

But a bid of 12.3 and ask of 12.88 indicates a narrow spread i.e. good volumes for the MM.
The Bid is the main thing because this is what attracts the Seller.

Well, Bid was 0.11, now 0.12 (so a 9% rise!!) on little BUY volume; that would indicate to me (I may be wrong) that there are some pending BUY orders; earlier, the SP range was 0.11-0.12, now 0.12-0.14, why would the MM otherwise up the Ask to 0.14?
Can't think of another reason, other than perhaps the MM's shenanigans!

NU,
I have traded MSYS many times; there are times that you cannot get a live price for a small BUY, and/or a small SELL; this is when there are big orders pending (BUY or SELL);
Similarly, if big SELL orders show already on the tape, this would logically mean that either there is a big BUY order waiting to be filled, OR the Mkt Maker has taken the SELL order on their book (which, to me, is more bullish because the Mkt Maker always has inside info).
I can't think of a 3rd explanation as to why a big SELL order would be executed if NO corresponding BUY volume exists.
Do you?

NU,
there is some contradiction to what you say below.
Firstly, if nobody bought, how can Helium dump? For every SELL there must be a BUY, unless the Mkt maker is willing to load up on stock.
Secondly, if Helium sold 400 mln shares today, and obviously another Buyer took this stock, how can then another Buyer "buy cheaper" if all the stock overhang has been cleared?
Eventually, in the next few weeks/months, 2 things will happen IMO:
1. Helium will sell out
2. The SP will find a bottom (cannot guess at that level) and then the upturn will come; whether 1 will be before 2, or vice versa, will probably depend on Market dynamics (eg USA crash etc), MSYS' own RNSs, Helium's appetite for sales at any SP etc.
Therefore, any PI who has money just needs to decide whether buying (or selling) at e.g. 0.11 or 0.12 will yield a profit in X months/years (depending on their preferred time horizon).
IMO, GLA
PS: At 7mln mkt cap, with 50% (min) of that being Cash, I would argue that - ignoring Helium - buying at 0.11-0.12 is a fantastic SP.

Harry,
MSYS has zero debt and is fully funded for the next 2 years or so...int. rate rises will impact it mainly by affecting investor psychology (eg Helium selling more shares) and less so by increasing its cost of capital.
At 0.12, 0.11 0.10, what incentive has anyone to sell (from the Placees, who bought at 0.10)?
If you notice the market dynamics, it's liquid Big Tech stocks that are mainly being sold off, whereas small caps have been in the doldrums for over a year now.
Another 10-15% drop for Nasdaq etc will not necessarily cause havoc to UK small caps; it may even benefit them as speculators/day traders will be driven out of the market and investors will start paying attention to company fundamentals.
I don't think that MSYS' prospects will be severely impacted by 0.5%-1% US Dollar rate rises; a year ago the SP was 0.20, 4 months ago 0.25 and during this period a lot of progress has been made (Revenues up, technology more developed, more collaborations being discussed etc). Now with the SP at 0.12, how risky is it?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/01/25/time-buy-exceptionally-cheap-london-listed-shares-says-jp-morgan/

My note - MSYS sells to Utilities (Mtx PD), Pharma (Bioprocessing etc), Healthcare...(China soon) - DYOR

"If yields rise, the UK could outperform the rest of Europe by around 12pc, they said, pointing to London’s usually high concentration of defensive stocks such as food, healthcare, household products, pharmaceuticals and utilities.
The analysts called the UK’s undervaluation “striking” on a long-term basis, leaving it as the second-cheapest country in Europe after Spain, based on expected company performance as the pandemic wanes. “The median stock in the UK is considerably cheaper than the median stock in other regions,” they said."

Let's hope the Buyer has some inside knowledge :)
Maybe about the ITEP engine's production?
Or February interims?

Frix,
Yes, 0.1...only worth selling for a 20% profit (if small volumes). For big volumes, the Mkt maker will hike the spread.
I guess for Helium, even 10% would be good given the losses they must be having on other holdings.

The bubble has almost burst, probably another leg down left;
I am just wondering whether this is good for MSYS in the sense that it is a hugely undervalued (IMO) stock in comparison to all the Teslas, Netflix etc out there, which still trade on P/Es in the 50s or more.
It's at 0.12 so not much gain left to the Placees who sell at this price so are we near its bottom?
Although Omicron seems to be levelling off in the UK etc, it is still on in China, India, Africa where there could still be a big demand for the miniaturised Microtox PD (sales from April).
And Water monitoring for pollution etc is still an ongoing, permanent public health necessity, not to be affected much by 5% inflation or 0.25% interest rate rises. IMO
Bioprocessing deals this year, similarly, would probably not be affected by the market's gyrations.
At the end of the day, we just need a couple of million in Revenues this H1 to hit our targets for 2023 profitability. Let's see what happens in the next few weeks. And ignoring Microtox BT for the time being!
GLA

308,
Re BT progress, GJB mentioned on Proactive interview (just before Xmas, if I remember) to expect "update in H1"...nothing else.

I would add that, all small caps are suffering from the fear in the market, even though it's the cryptos, big Tech and all the meme stocks that are suffering now in this correction/crash as they were the ones with lofty valuations.
MSYS has cash for another 2 years, give or take, and good news are expected about Sales by April, at least via DVRG (PD's mass production, and trials concluding).
China will come through sooner or later and so will bioprocessing deals.
But, Helium still has about 6.5% of the share capital so it depends how desperate it becomes in trying to sell this stake.
GLA

A few big SELL orders by Helium probably.

Go to the Pacific islands for a year.. when you are back, things will be better :)

Well, it seems to have started; Netflix, Peloton down by 20%, Bitcoin below 40k.
Note that it's mainly the Big Tech correcting because that's where all of the market liquidity (and extreme overvaluation) had headed over the last 2 years.
Small caps have better chances (soon, when the market calms down) IMO, to recover and MSYS should benefit in a few months, once Helium and other short term holders exit.
Do we sell at rock bottom prices and sit on cash (eaten by 7% inflation), or do we sit tight and wait for the recovery?
As the saying goes, you make money NOT by TIMING the mkt but by TIME in the Mkt.
GLA over the next few weeks, which will probably be nerve racking!

PC,
Yes, good snippets. Glenn is working hard but he can't control the market's vagaries.
Big Tech and Nasdaq are dropping, small caps have gone nowhere for over a year but (as per a good article by John Authers on today's Bloomberg) their time will come.
Market will be selective this time of rising rates and slower growth, so if things go to plan and Revenue rises this H1, MSYS could be a beneficiary of the changing trend.
Helium is probably losing money on other tech investments, hence its selling of MSYS to cover up its own mess. PIs have been increasing their stake in MSYS (by the 6-7% Helium has sold) and none of the other big institutions have reduced their stake, at least in my knowledge.
So, we just have to be patient for a few more weeks - for the mood to change - when some serious RNSs get released.

NU,
For clarity, Helium et al have been selling existing shares.
Glenn referred to outstanding options (Staff/His) and warrants yet to be exercised.

Buys of appx 18mln but SP did not budge; seems there is another SELL megatrade pending for execution?

Know3,
Sept21 the SP was 0.25 (interims). Thanks to Helium, now 0.14, despite the news since then ( a lot by DVRG).
I have said before that 0.50 is quite realistic i.e. a mkt cap of 30 mln by y/e22.

NU,
Thanks, same to you.

Rellik,
Whatever Helium states, they will be doing a "Cummings"; CAN'T BE RELIED ON
Of course they will not state whatever their true intention is.