Member Info for LTbeliever

"Helium exits"!

War going on or getting worse, so affecting sentiment and supply chains (most production hopefully will be in Ireland), including semiconductors.
Continued selling by Helium, maybe around 5% holding now;
Lack of progress on bioprocessing, TDM; maybe Glenn's departure will have a serious impact on these projects.
Over-reliance on DVRG's water monitoring sales;

Bull case - war ends quickly, without a big impact on MSYS' supply chain etc
Bioprocessing and TDM is still progressing, albeit with delays;
Regular income from water monitoring kit;
New projects, not in public domain now;
Glenn's replacement steps in his shoes quickly and ably;
SP at 0.10 is a strong resistance line; Helium exists by summer time;

I don't know, I think it's evenly balanced, SP rose last year on expectation of many things happening with DVRG; seems things have slowed down; still a risky proposition and even at 0.10, could have a value trap.
I cannot predict the future, MSYS is still risky but at 0.10 I think the downside is quite reduced versus the upside. I hope things will start moving in April, especially if DVRG orders some more MSYS kit and/or wins the water mon. contract from the mystery Govrnmt, which I still believe it's either the UK or even the USA. IMO
GLA

Hi PCon,
I beg to differ, actually - "next few months" do not preclude April as start month for production; those 5 mln in orders will be delivered in 2022, therefore, the customers have ordered something that will be produced, delivered and installed in the next 9 months; if there was no firm production start date, why would GJB risk signing contracts if he cannot be sure of delivery?
Also, you refer to a JV - I guess you refer to China? But these orders are global and not specific to any JV, if I am right. The JV is China related, these orders relate to various sizes of Mtox PD, made for different clients and regions.
Re MSYS, I don't expect news on Glenn's replacement before June, but yes, I agree, we need to hear about Chinese Distributors for TDM, more on bioprocessing deals and other stuff.

Small mention of MSYS on DVRG's Broker Note on middle of page 2, which shows the potential for both companies to increase revenues substantially:
"DeepVerge’s collaboration with Microsaic Systems plc (AIM: MSYS) contributes portable real-time sewage monitoring for ‘organics’ such as drugs of abuse and active pharmaceutical ingredients front line water analysis portfolio. Both companies are engaged in a collaboration to deliver complete solutions, with a backbone of analytics delivered to end users powered by AI techniques provided by the Modern Water division, Rinocloud."

https://mcusercontent.com/d9ebd7c1aa0f3dbc5fab42eca/files/76ce2081-4d68-e85a-90b8-0f88dfb6bfcd/Deepvergeplc_Research_Update_11March2022__FINAL_BG.01.pdf

I bought a bit more of MSYS, RNS is well overdue.
and DVRG will announce more in April, re mass production of Mtox PD and water mon. trial of X Govt (USA?), which should involve MSYS too.
GLA

Barda,
April, yes...imagine, these sales now prior to trial ending, AND next month when the US Govt is announced as our client!

"This equipment is across the range and earmarked for sites including the UK, the EU, China, India and the Middle East. The range of equipment includes Microtox®PD, for real-time detection of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater treatment plants "

For me, "across the range" means a variety of equipment, so first ever sales of various units AND, secondly, first ever installations in the EU, India and China meaning MORE TO COME. Plus, still waiting on the USA!

NU,
good work. I would assume however that the leased units cost less than the pure sales' ones, given the 5 year service model. Logical?

it also means that the 4.2 is pure equip sales, the 0.8 will not be received in 2022 but over 5 years, therefore for 2022 instead of 0.8 mln GBP, DVRG will receive 400k USD.
Therefore, this RNS implies - GBP 4.2mln + USD400k revenues in 2022, then 400k USD per annum for another 4 years.

RT40,
I think the breakdown is like this:
5mln in equip. sales, out of which 0.8mln (i.e. $1.08mln) is based on the services model, yielding $2.4 mln in fees over 5 years.
Extrapolating that to the other 4.2 mln, would imply (if and when achieved) 4.2 x 2.4 = 10mln GBP in service fees

It also shows that the 24mln Rev. target for DVRG for whole of 2022 is very realistic; MSYS should get about 5-10% of this, therefore 1.2-2.5 mln, just from DVRG's sales. IMO

less price ELASTIC, I meant...i.e. holding up

And remember that recurring revenues (service fees) have much higher profit margins than pure capital equipment sales.
Note also that such growth prospects in this global environment (war, inflation, low econ. growth) will be ore highly rated, especially given that health-related expenditures by govt and industry will tend to be less price inelastic.

Cool 5mln, for first 3 months - seems that 24 mln annual sales should be achievable.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DVRG/deepverge-q1-production-orders-up-39-to-1635m-y5jreh3py9cdkwe.html

Some of that 5mln should filter through to MSYS.

So maybe the mystery Government might be the USA one? That alone would mean a couple of million in Revenues for MSYS, this year, once orders for the whole of the US stream in.
Hopefully the trial will be a success and the RNS announced soon.

Very odd! Sells continue, but the BID price goes up (the opposite should have been expected, right?).
Either there is a huge BUY order pending, or the MM knows something will be announced - that's my take, from the price movements so far today and yesterday.
Anyone else with a different explanation?

Well, it would seem that - judging from the SELLS exceeding the BUYS - the SP should have headed down, not up, right?
So, quite possibly something is afoot.

It seems the MM knows something the rest of us don't.
And this time it's positive IMO.

I hope you are wrong and we do get an RNS tomorrow or soon after, because we definitely need an RNS :)
GLA