Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
It is looking more than likely the ECB will bring forward the first rate cut from the highly forecast, June 6th meet. Comments from the French central bank gvnor yday highlighted the potential for economic decline being greater than the threat of a resurgent inflation.
This morning, French inflation data has backed that up. It came in at 2.4% vs 3.2% the previous month. It was much better than expectation of 2.8%. It is possible that Italian inflation, due later, will come in at 1.5%.
I expect the £/€ rate to improve as expectations for earlier ECB rate cuts than BoE take hold.
French manufacturing inflation was 0.1% mom and goes some way to confirm the picture that China is exporting industrial deflation at an increasing rate.
Falls in the pricing of Iron ore, steel and nickel confirm the collapsing real estate market there and the country is trying to hold up the economy with exports industries. China accounts for 31% of global supply but only 13% of consumption.
UK inflation is and will continue to fall and should sterling rise strongly in the next month, the BoE may consider bringing their first rate cut forward to May.
The umbilical between big caps and minnows always gets stretched in high interest rate environments and should this opinion become entrenched, I am hoping that the significant discount of small caps vs big caps starts to compress. We can only hope.
If you listen to the presentation from the steam ship company at the recent council meeting, you will hear them say that they were boosting reserves (by not paying dividends) for several years previous, to save sufficient for the upfront payment. If they were of a mindset to build in the UK with government backed funding, that would not have been necessary. The whole island depends on the goodwill of the UK, its governance, financial backing and seasonal customers...why would the sole, monopoly transport provider not be happy to support, on whatever terms, the county it depends on. I know the steamship company is independent but is it? Without the UK it and the island would not survive...in my opinion.
LSE03. Liam speaks total sense and anyone outside the Westminster buble knows that. Both Labour and Conservatives have steered this ship onto the rocks and keep thinking the rocks will move. With an uncompetitive energy cost, UK industry has shed around 3 million manufacturing and engineering jobs. Leveling up will never be achieved with these numpties in power....Reform is needed!
JPMorgan have issued a note on the European defence sector. They see the re-arming process (following the 30 year cold war peace dividend) lasting for another decade. They expect further strong earnings growth, upside risk to consensus and the possibility for stocks to re-rate as the visability of earnings improves.
HW will be a lagard until revenues hit at least £300m in my opinion but at the current SP it is extreemly ignored with all the focus on large caps. The big guns will eventually train on the minnows as capacity constraints begin to bite. Hang on in there! Circle the wagons, Custer is coming!
Despite a broad indices decline today, the European defence sector racked up its tenth gain in a row (0.8%) to help bring up a 30% rise in 2024 to date.
Shares of Hensoldt, Dasssult, Rheinmetall and Leonardo were all positive.
The UK index has registered a similar showing. This sector performance will, at some point, float all boats as investors look for smaller players. It will not happen for HW until the sword of damacles (financing) is removed. Keep the faith and continue to load up, the direction of travel, of revenues, is good/stable. I am sure a whirly gig based order(s) will be forthcoming given the billions of investment in and around the British Isles.
Yes, that is a view through rose tinted glasses but to sell at a 10p is crazy as it just represents option money.
Butonedup.
I promise not to turn this to a political LSE board but "disgraced politician"...Lee Anderson????
The disgrace is the two parties allowing the UK to wallow in the mire whilst he was the only MP with the cahonas to say what the majority of hard working people feel.
Finding. Your review is quite correct. The FTSE started the millennium around 7,000. The Dow at around 11,500. As we can see, the FTSE is still struggling to reach 8,000 whilst the Dow is nearing 40,000.
You are totally correct in your assumption that governance has a big part to play. The avalanche of EU beauracracy weighed heavily on corporate growth. Couple this with energy costs up to 300% higher...got to love Net Zero...and the disconnected from the can do, high investment US becomes clear.
UK institutions have avoided the UK like the plague since 1997 as we have been under the rule of anti-business, socalist governments.
To break free there is only one soloution and that is a total rejection of the two party politics which has led to voter apathy but total dominance by Labour and Consocalist...for me, Voting ReformUK is only route out of this mess. They offer a new, radical alternative to the dumb and dumber rule.
So looking around, what do i see?
The FTSE making new 10 month high not far from all time high but grossly undervalued vs international markets.
BaE, Bab willey and other defence companies hitting multi year or all time highs.
Energy prices down sharly from highs with gas and electricity due to fall next month.
Inflation to hit 2% by late May.
Interest rates likeky to fall several times in 2024.
Politicians under intense pressure to raise defence spending.
Green energy spending on the cusp of an explosion in investment.
Eight continuous years of negative investment flows into UK market...unlikely to have much more to run.
UK companies being picked off by international competitors due to value.
UK companies increasingly activating share buybacks.
Given the above, once the funding is agreed...10p will look like a strange level for HW to be trading at.
As a side issue, i am fully expecting the cost of funding to be 5% above whatever base rate you care to use. Anything below that would be a bonus.
Sometime, as long term shareholders, we blame the management for the poor performance of our investment. However, it can be a bigger picture of macro economics that is at play.
Scroll down on the article below and you will find a chart whicĥ shows how the UK market has seen 8 years of negative investment flows. This is unprecedented and explains why UK markets are languishing vs international competitors. This is a trend and at some point, will snap back. Given the election year and the liklihood of a Labour victory, i guess the most recent outflows are not surprising.
For now, hold fast and if you can afford it, keep loading up at these crazy discounts.
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/london-stock-exchange-shares-ftse-100-crisis-equities-fund-outflows-b1145526.html
Stock buybacks continue at pace this week. Companies such as BAT, Balfour Beatty, Vodafone and Bodycote have announced further action to return money to shareholders by buying stock in the market, thus enhancing the return on capital. The significant discount of UK markets (vs major global indices) ensures this trend is likely to continue as the spectre of lower interest rates and a rebound of economic fortunes looms.
If only HW had money to do likewise. Given the constant management talk of sunlit uplands, you would have thought the return on such a move would be far greater than throwing money at ferry wars...hey ho
Given the dire situation of naval supply ships or should I say ship...the liklihood of a similar request to speed up the FSS programme is entirely possible.
Any such move would enhance profitability of the contract.
The MoD has put in place, a process to speed up the delivery of the Ajax armoured vehicle.
Given the dire s
https://armyrecognition.com/defense_news_march_2024_global_security_army_industry/uk_outlines_measures_to_boost_british_army_ajax_armoured_vehicle_program_delivery_rate.html
Hi Scaffman. Last years monthly inflation rates were quite high. They will drop out of the annual CPI and be replaced by much smaller figures. The April cut in energy tariffs will help inflation fall, along with negative yoy food prices, to around 2%. Its written in the stars. Todays employment stats helped bring the first rate cut to may in my book...only my opinion.
Long term holders will recall the constant reference to the downtrend chart line from Dec 2019 which has, on so many occasions, put a lid on rallies. Well, the good news is, if you extend that line out to November...it gets to ZERO!! So finally, on the fifth anniversary of bring a shareholder, i can stop watching every print, endless moronic comments (not all posts of course) ....write off a significant chunk of my wealth and move on. Ohhh happy days!