Member Info for LordAdam

@2toil ... It can be a bit tricky to work out what's actually going on in these trade lists. Looking at the transactions in detail ... firstly they are much larger than either the minimum guaranteed market size or the typical sort of trade size ... so two things kick in ... a) the market makers can delay the posting of the trade for some period of time (which in thinly traded shares can be days) -- but they didn't do that here, it was posted in line with the rest of the trades ... b) the traded price will have been agreed with a MM direct rather than taken off the Level 2 system automatically. The trade took place at 14:38:38 at a price of 1325.0 ... the bid/ask price at that time to ordinary deals was 1316.0/6.5. So the MM had made a 9p difference immediately ... at that difference ... worth, £394,604, they didn't need to shift the price ... they just waited for folk to sell to fill the hole that they had in their order book. I guess that what really meant that the price didn't move was the shear volume and liquidity of the trading going through the market makers. I hold/monitor a share where £5,000 will shift the market ... and actually my broker couldn't trade 8250 shares the other day ... now that's a thinly traded share! Mike

John, thanks, you're a star. Interesting isn't it that there is still no indication as to why the CEO+CFO are going? It's a tricky one to call isn't it, but my considered opinion at the moment is to hold and maybe even add for the high yield portfolio if I have cash around to do it. The specials pre-date the Cathedral acquisition and even without Cathedral there should still be a reasonable cash surplus on good low-claim years. Mike

Does any good fellow have a subscription to Investors Chronicle ... ... and if so could they take a look at this article and let us know what the gist of it is? http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2015/12/08/tips-and-ideas/share-tips/management-exits-at-lancashire-holdings-GFQZOHxp8nse0GXovwMDaN/article.html Thanks. Mike

Just to counteract the speculation and the listening to rumour and vague recommendations ... Cathedral constitutes less than a third of the LRE groups size etc ... in addition there are really rather strict rules regarding the viability and sustainability of the insurance/underwriting business ... at worst case if there is some irregularity what can its affect on the whole groups position be? Overall this is one of those cases where I suspect the rumour is rather worse than the reality. LRE's dividend policy tends to lead to large swings in share price, particularly at about this time of year, so what we see today/yesterday is not actually unusual from a numerical point of view. In addition much of the recent 700p price tag was the result of M&A speculation following the Amlin deal ... my own feeling is that, if anything, LRE is a more likely candidate for take over once this debacle is cleared up than before ... but now the froth has been blown off the top and the odds of a bid are increased. Net conclusion ... hold, or in my case buy (as I'm underweight in my HYP on this one). Mike

Brokers ... love 'em or hate 'em ... Hargreaves Lansdown lists 7 brokers ratings for LRE ... 1 strong buy, 1 buy, 4 neutral, 1 sell. The sell is from Barclays Capital who have had it in place since before May and have held a target price of about 430 throughout that period ... as ArtMan said, if you wait long enough then they are always right. I can't see Cannacord Genuity having any better information or track record ... the link that cj101 posts is to a largely computer generated article that just lists statistics ... the only thing that isn't is the brokers target of 550 and we more or less saw that yesterday. Nope ... for me the whole bunch of them, unless they publish their analysis, are just waving wet fingers in the air. I'm waiting to see what the company has to announce about the situation. Mike

Bargain top-up? Well good question that one, as in all things investment wise we shall have to see. Traditionally, looking at the annual charts for LRE there's a fall back in the price at this time of year, and interestingly, not so much different in terms of size to this one. Of course *this* is different with the Cathedral issues still to come out in full. What surprises me greatly is that, from what I can see, there's been no announcement from the company as to what is happening, *and more importantly, why it is happening!* Having said all that, I did do a bit of selling in the ISA this morning to release funds to top up our holding of LRE. Even with half the special dividends the yield is very attractive and I'm into High Yield Portfolio things in the ISA. Good luck all ... now I wonder when the board are going to publish something to reduce the uncertainty that surrounds this at the moment? Mike

OK so what's going on? 10% sort of fall in the sp in the space of a couple of hours and despite scouring the news, forums and RNS streams I can't find any explanation for the reason why. Does anyone have any idea(s)? Mike

Yes, almost 300 ... again ... The market in Trak is so thin that it is extremely sensitive to any sustained buying or selling pressure ... trouble is that most folk aren't used to seeing, and aren't comfortable with, a share that can move 3-5% or more in a day. That leads to folk jumping in or bailing out and adding to the pressure on the price. It's not going to change anytime soon either ... Trak's not very big in market cap ... 80m at today's sorts of numbers ... half of that is held by the management and a couple of institutional investors ... and a lot of what remains is held by a very loyal following of stalwarts who are in for the longer term. A smooth ride we won't get ... but I do think that we can expect short bursts of frantic activity punctuated by longer quiet periods where not much happens ... I'm much reminded of the old saying/curse ... "May you live in interesting times!". Mike

We're finishing the week in a very interesting position ... Results last Monday ... excellent for both the present and the longer term future ... very good predictions on the future P/E suggesting a short term price of 300-320 and a longer term price (in the 2-3 year time scale) of 500. In the week leading up to the results we had that hiatus on Tue/Wed, which I now think was triggered by Hargreaves adjusting its portfolio and top cutting its successful holdings in Trakm8 and others. Some of that uncertainty has lingered into this week and kept most of the traders out of the post-results market. Also news of the results has been overshadowed by the autumn statement and events in the oil/mining sectors ... we will probably see several of the press pundits return to Trakm8 this weekend to say 'told you so' about their predictions last time around. I think tey will be suggesting a buy for the longer term. With renewed comment in the press I think we will see some new buyers in the market next week ... interestingly the number of sold shares has dropped to almost zero today. Everyone who has got shares thinks they are worth more than 265-70 and that includes me. There's really only one way this can go and that's up ... it's just a matter of the timing. Mike

The AIM market is almost always counter-intuitive on results day for a company ... today is no exception with the slightly added twist of last weeks sheenanigans still affecting us a little. Firstly, most of the attention today is focused on the FTSE100 which was suffering this morning in the oil and mining sectors ... so I suspect a lot of folk are watching that fairly closely. It's not until usually later in the day or even the next day that the fund managers get around to scanning for news on the smaller AIM market. So typically its late in the day or the next day that results tend to move the price. Also last week still is having some effect ... some folk bought in, then held through the dip with a resolution to sell when the results came through ... now they are ducking out. Getting real-time data for nothing is difficult. The LSE site posts delayed trade and market data (typically 15-20 minutes) ... google finance shows the current price, but trade is so thin that it shows the last traded price and tends to oscillate around the mid-price a lot. ADVFN shows up to date trade data but deals badly with data that the MMs decide to delay (basically anything over 3000 shares). [At least the LSE site inserts the selectively delayed trade data at the place where it is posted with the actual trade time displayed ... but the buy/sell indication could be wrong by that stage.] FinnCap are the company brokers (I think) so if anyone has a finger on the pulse it should be them ... my own figure is 320 by the turn of the year. Results ... what is really nice to see is how sales are being converted into ongoing cash-flow ... it makes for a company that is particularly robust against finance costs and able to fund its own acquisitions independently of the investment market. All in all, especially considering last weeks doubts ... a good day! Mike

What a cracking set of results. I think anyone who dumped shares in last week's panic session is going to fell pretty sore about it fairly soon. I can see that we are going to have to revisit our estimates and predictions again in the light of this morning's news. Mike

It's a fairly crude analysis but if you add up the total volume of shares traded from 30-October to the peak, that's from about 255p upwards, you get 949K shares ... if you add up the total traded Tue/Wed/Thu you get 781K shares. Seems as though what happened is folk jumped in, the price lifted, and a lot of them got back out again when the price settled back to its natural level ... which today seems to be the 265-270 sort of zone. On the subject of the American market ... Trakm8's business model is to to sell units + data service. It gets its strength from generating income out of the boxes it sells, after, the sale point, by providing data collection, analysis and presentation to its customers. Effectively , its major trump card is in fleet/asset management, monitoring and analysis. That's what sets it apart from a tech-company with a nifty idea ... its an income generating machine. I'll put the bacon and eggs on for 6.30 on Monday ... you're welcome to join me if you fancy and we can wait for the results to come through together! Mike

I'm not surprised that IG shows all their clients holding long ... If we look back to the last half of October we'd reached a nice plateau of 235-245 and the long term holders were very pleased with how things were working out. Then we had the RNS about the American order and things got a little excited and we shot up (almost literally) to 295 ish. Now any one who was into Trak for the long term was already well up to weight -- I know I was -- so that money had to be new blood. I think that's were the red has been coming from for the last couple of days ... now that we're back down to the 235-245 zone things seemed to have quietened down a lot ... there isn't the same volume or number of trades going through. I think what we've seen is a number of people buying in and then getting back out again as they see the bubble that they created deflating. One of the interesting things about Trakm8's management team is how they play the information game in a positive way ... they don't bother with trade/financial press for issuing news they do it through the RNS ... which costs nothing and is totally under their control for timing and content. They also don't play the market as some companies do. Some smaller companies are more interested in driving their share price than managing their business ... its as though some teams intend to make more money from the market than from doing their job. Trakm8 don't behave that way ... they more or less leave the market to its own devices and get on with growing the business. With 40-45% of the equity in their own hands they know that the way to riches is to grow the company and let the share price follow that. I'm waiting for the results ... I think most of the long-timers are ... the past track record and the way the management conducts itself warrants it. Mike

Don't you just 'love' those computer generated stock reports/recommendations? I like collecting the really bizarre and naff ones. The best ones are when there's been some corporate action that's shifted the price and then the template report goes on to talk about upside and downside without any reference to the reality. Amlin is a case in point ... after an agreed all cash offer for 670 there is still an outfit saying that their target is 500 and the downside is 124% on the closing price! (http://www.dakotafinancialnews.com/amlin-plcs-add-rating-reaffirmed-at-westhouse-securities-aml/598364/) Back to the Trak snippet ... the title is a bit misleading as they are actually recommending investment as trading stocks at all time highs is often a valid strategy ... interestingly they have a target price (based on charts I believe) of 681.15 (I like the precision of the .15 there). Mike

Treadstone ... welcome to the fray ... you join us at an interesting time! I've known Trakm8 since before their IPO back in 2005 and seen them through that and the management restructuring that has led to their renewed fortunes. They are a good solid company that does things well ... they keep their cards close to their chest and publish all their news via the RNS service ... there's never been any sign of insider trading or rumours that proved to be true ... quite the opposite ... generally the market dips before good news is announced. It's as though even when the market knows there's news in the offing it doesn't know what it is -- and assumes that it's bad. From a company point of view Trakm8 has a long way to go yet before it tops out ... they are integrating their own manufacturing facility into the product line rather than outsourcing ... which gives them greater security of IP, shares costs and increases profit margins ... they are integrating new technologies into their products (dash cams etc) by acquisition of know how and products which extends their functional footprint in the market place ... and they are gaining ground abroad. You don't need me to tell you how big the US market is. The management is heavily invested in the equity (40-45%) and is very professional in its day to day affairs. In brief ... they've got everything going for them ... Mike

Well this is getting interesting ... Firstly, don't panic Wish-I'd-Bought-Them ... Trak is not your ordinary share ... the market in this is so thin that 5-10,000 shares can shift it a lot ... and the other thing that is very unusual for Trak is the number of very small trades that you see going through. We've often discussed why this is the case but came to the conclusion that there were a lot of very small investors following tip sheets and pub talk. At the moment I think there are three broad groups of holders ... there's us long-timers who've been in for quite some time now ... our average buy prices are well down and we're not going to be phased by the last couple of days, especially 3 days away from the results. Having seen 3-4 sets of results go through we know this is not that unusual. Then there are folk that bought in during the last few weeks ... they are likewise going to hold on for the results, after all that's why they bought in. Finally there are the ones that have been in since about the middle of the year ... say the 150-180 sort of level. I think its these folk who are being unnerved at the moment ... I've left out the largest group of all .. who own about 40-45% of the company ... the management themselves who have a very vested interest in getting it right. In the past the management have been very tight fisted with their holdings ... and when they did move some shares it was by acting in concert together to bring another large investor onto the share register. There was some discussion then as to who it might be and the thought occurs that it might be someone to do with the American market ... or possibly an institutional investor that will assist with equity related matters regarding future expansion ... I think Monday is going to be very interesting. Past experience says the very least we will see will be a demonstration of a very capable management team in action getting on with the process of growing their company and customer base ... beyond that is speculation, but it won't be rash or ill-considered, that's not Trakm8's style. Mike

Ah ... don't worry ... you'll be pleased that you did get them when you did come the results next week. Interesting historical perspective ... have you had a look at the charts for Trakm8 last Oct/Nov leading up to the interims that were posted, that year, on Dec 4? Almost exactly what we are seeing here except that this time around the timescale is more 'compressed'. A significant drop leading up to the almost the day ... then a very significant rise to a new high/plateau following the results themselves. As my old Physics master used to often put on my reports ... "Augurs well for the future"! Mike

This is great news for Breedon ... and the share price is reacting accordingly today. Sadly we little guys may not get a fair share of the action in that the 78m shares to finance the deal are being 'placed' rather than offered to exisiting share holders. The double sad thing is that they are 'placing' them at 51.9p which is a 10-15p discount to the market today and hands a day 1, £8-10m profit to the lucky institution on a silver plata. Personally I would have liked the opportunity to take up more shares in this excellent company ... especially at a fixed price of 51.9p ... I think the board have judged it wrong on this one and should have gone for the rights issue. I'll just have to settle for the capital gain on what I have. Mike

Yes, these delayed trades make it hard to read the trade lists and form an opinion of what's going on in real time. It seems as though anything at 3000 or above (the guaranteed minimum market size at which the MMs have to trade) can be delayed by an hour or so ... for the larger trades 5000 upwards from what I can guess, it can be delayed until the end of the day, or even the following day ... and this all depends on the MM asking for the trade not to be displayed in real time. So some times the price shifts and we only get to know why the next day! Regardless of what's happening in the minute to minute trading activity there's some steady buying going on ... often of big chunks of shares ... some folk are estimating the forward p/e as of the order of 19 or so ... and that coupled with good future prospects and solid management makes these a long term must have. I think Monday's results will confirm the general trend and 300+ being a reasonable target for the festive season. Mike

Yes, some decent deals going through on Monday ... a little bit of manoeuvring going on this morning (Tuesday) ... being such a thinly traded share the price has been moved fairly aggressively by the market makers. This could be the last chance that folk may get to top up at a discount to 300 before the interim's come out on the Monday of next week. My experience of watching Trak in the past is that they run a very tight ship as regards security of information prior to results and RNS postings. Have you noticed how there is often a sizeable dip on the day before an RNS comes out? What I think is happening there is that the RNS is being lodged in the system for a 0700 release the following day ... but the market has no idea what it contains ... and generally an RNS for a small company is very often bad news ... so with the uncertainty those close to the market thin their holdings. Then the RNS comes out, the news is good and the price rebounds. I think we'll see something similar in the later part of this week ... a fairly soft market with some uncertainty until we see the actual results on Monday. Having said that ... the RNS stream recently has been very positive ... and Trak has a proven record of 'just getting on with it' as good management always does. If I don't post before ... I'll be at my screen at 0700 on Monday to read the news! GLA Mike