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It's a precarious position as 1.60 seems to have priced in the good travel news mainly but in the wider market, but with rates at 4% and still rising this has ran out of steam for now.
There are potential headwinds from inflation although this seems to be coming down now but that's seen in the recent performance, up 75% since 1022.
So I would argue this will either see a steady rise towards 200 by year end or see a sharper pullback on bad inflation news. I'll consider buying back in at c.150 is it does as longer term, IAG is worth about 250
Longer term agree 100% but will be turbulence along the way
If results are not interpreted with unbridled manic buying then those on here who post things like "the airports are full though!" dont really understand how shares work
What is certain is that IAG at 165p is not a FOMO price at all in the short term. I would expect 200p by year end, assuming the optimistic 2013 conditions continue. But then again, they might not.
It is natural for a rally to run out of steam. And 80% on a share is quite the rally I am sure you would agree.
I for one expected 80% over 1 year, not 3 months...
And yes IAG was severely underpriced at 95p. To say it is still underpriced but due a pullback are not contradictory in the slightest
"Manipulated" in what sense? By whom? How? Be exact.
This is threading water as there is a great deal of caution around equities in general and the 2023 rally is built on very little but cautious optimism and huge amounts of cash sitting around coming back into risky assets. Rates are are 4+% and rising. When has this ever been positive for equities, give me one example?
And IAG has risen by 80% since November.
I am optimistic longer term for IAG but the recent performance to me looks overdone and a pullback is not unlikely.
And Putin's snarling deranged TV appearance on the eve of the invasion justifying the invasion on the grounds that Ukraine had no history of nationhood and belittling them as nothing but a province of Russia?
I guess that was NATO too
One final point to note is that a correlation between increasing interest rates and stock market returns is very very rare. A cursory glance at returns over the last 50 years should tell you this. Interest rates are still rising and inflation reasons take on volatility once they get to 9%+. Relief rallies based on an expected inflation return of 8.8% for instance vs 9% last quarter will take on a great deal of volatility. What if the reading is 8.9%? The reaction to these news items will be out of proportion. Because everyone is scared that the rally will not last, simple.
There has been a great deal of relief in the 2023 rally based on lowered inflation mainly but also milder recessions. But these things are prone to pullbacks for entirely psychological reasons. Everyone knows that the foundations of recent returns are weak to say the least and it doesnt take much at all to swing back. One or two news items that go against the narrative cause them.
When you say "manipulate" what do you mean exactly?
It's a word thrown around by people as if hedge fund executives wearing trench coats can simply meet someone in car parks in the City of London and exchange envelopes with desired SP levels!
The market for shares is deep and varied and no one actor can influence it in a meaningful way. Not to mention that what you are suggesting is illegal. The SP moves in a volatile manner because it's an airline and prone to huge swings one way or another from the nature of the business.
Long term members will know me. I've see the debts of 90 from 170 where every step was a "floor"
We're at 170 which for me means I got my money back. To those wgo made money, congrats!
But I have sold. The FTSE is at record highs and I suspect the US will shortly be broad home. I will buy again at 150ish
Its been a pleasure
Is every sell off just "profit taking" for you?
Could you find another forum to bother, your posts are nothing but inane nonsense
There's a danger of that. IAG is >75% up in last 3 months and of course this was forward looking.
I think IAG has legs yet but not as much as it did, obviously. "Good" results therefore wont necessarily be a positive news development
This place has more in common with the waiting room of a mental hospital than an investor forum these days
On a non-IAG topic, does anyone have any experience of investing in Whiskey Casks?
I have been researching the pros/cons of it but on the surface, investing in a Cask of Whiskey with free storage/insurance for 5 years seems like a good idea? It's effectively a securitized loan for a start up as worst case scenario, I just take a casj of whiskey in my flat and try and sell it around North London boozers like del boy!
I'd need to get a return of 20% annualized though for the risk to be worth it.
The recession will be long and slow moving.
To some extent the airline news is largely priced in.
Obviously there is less upside potential at 160 than at 90 so it's probably going to be flat for a few months, maybe even go to 150 if rate rises continue to surprise. 200 by summer however.
...Assuming we follow the US. Might hit 157 again
Down to 155 before results then 165+
There is no price action either way from shorts closing positions. They never owned the stock to begin with and its just a naked bet