Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Suspension is never a good thing and the market uncertainty it creates needs to be addressed . The strong RNS was a good start. We now need a trading update , audit sign off and NOMAD clearance to relist .
But we have stayed out of the market during a turbulent time and look set to renter it with much better macro economic indicators with retail not as desperate as it looked to be.
So oddly our suspension may be a blessing in disguise if we renter in a way that’s more positive for REV at a time when the market feels more positive .
I can’t see anything but a hold from most s/h here :
Re the audit sign off that was never going to happen given the nature of the then live forensic investigation . Now it can be absorbed and progressed and my guess is they have a clear date set for this to occur back to back with the work with the NOMAD to lift the suspension . Even better if it’s timed with or around a strong trading update
Beware keeping any live stop loss orders open . MMs will try anything when the suspension is lifted to hoover these up and tempt slippy hands . It could happen any day as I can’t imagine todays RNS was released without a clear timeline of events being know.
You never lose banking a profit Bond . Not easy to call the top but it’s a sickener watching it fall and your profits disappear .
Is now back live sell
I wonder how long it will take to finalise the audit. I assume most of the work was done and this investigation will be detailed enough (or it seems to to ) to enable BDO to run the adjustments and finalise the audit on the back of it. Agreed re kitchen sinking this . Get it all in the 22 figures as the SP fall is priced in (overdone ) then start the good news flow . Working with the NOMAD in the background the end of suspension looks to be in sight.
Predictions for SP ? Boo knew most of this I imagine and I would be hopeful this will quickly rerate 2* and then the ship steadied for a rising SP from there
If it stays the same would you buy or hold ? Clear hold for me from here
I went in pre suspension knowing the risks but seeing potential upside . This isn’t just a delayed audit issue though there is a forensic investigation underway . We criticise auditors for signing off when there are issues so we can’t criticise them for not signing off when there are issues . My guess is we will see a good trading update and they might get the outcome of the investigation out at the same time with a focus on looking forwards
It’s not just an audit delay but a forensic investigation. On the plus side it’s enabling the results to be published when the market mayhem has settled down and there looks likely to be the warm counterbalance of positive trading.
We just need to get over whatever shock the investigation holds and focus on the positive trading position going forward. I think it will take a while on post suspension chaos day for the market to properly price this
Agreed re a restructuring of some sort, Beware the trade until Xmas if the landlords will support and trade credit insurance remains intact but then face a barren landscape afterwards and what this means . This year is going to be a potential bloodbath for retail. But those who survive will prosper when everything settles and we see a bounce when inflation, Ukraine, interest rates etc settle down and the political horlicks stops making this worse. Until then tighten the roller coaster belts for a rocky ride.
A filing last week might have been an attempt to try and bury news during the period of mourning. So I am pleased we are still waiting. The bad news and uncertainty of the delay is surely priced in so lets just get it out there and move on
Will it be Goodnight Saigon or Good Morning Vietnam . Fireworks or a very damp squib ?
As ever look at the fundamentals to guide you . They are shrouded in some doubt at the moment but the fundamentals remain in the medium to long term IMO
Good luck all holders
I am very reassured by the stability today. The RNS didn't tell us much new apart from the likelihood of trading recommencing in a few weeks once accounts are filed.
Personally I think all the bad news is now priced in and we are where we are (From 70p not so long ago) because of the delay in filing which is very rarely well received and the nervousness of what's been found together with the potential length of suspension.
I think any further risks would have been signposted by now as to the extent of the auditors concerns together with an expectation of a long suspension.
So for me I am very comfortable to tie my money into something that I feel will show excellent SP increase after the suspension and the SP adjusts to the opportunity and not the risk.
Suspension from 1 sept . Expects to publish and recommence trading within a matter of weeks .
Will be an interesting couple of days and hopefully a very good October
I ask myself 3 questions here
Will SP increase if there is is nothing unexpectedly wrong when the audit is delivered ? Definitely
Will it be suspended and if so will the price increase after suspension ? Possibly and probably
Is any risk of undisclosed issues already factored in to the SP ? Probably
On the basis of these answers I have taken my position and will hold to see a rise in months if not weeks . This could quickly double again and then see more upward trajectory. The RNS’s have not left this without risk but I believe that’s now priced in and the coming days will just be swings and semantics to where I think this has a chance of going short /medium and long term .
The fundamentals to keep still look solid albeit with growing pains
There is risk here for sure but if you bail you
Miss the chance to be in post suspension (if that happens ) and struggle to get back in anywhere below NAV if all is in order . Not quite a binary play but no without risk
The tree shake for me was a sign to buy . Never thought after this week's RNS's it would be available at 22p again. Rollercoaster ride though this one
So what does this tell us about the audit ? Should be on time and no more issues IMO
Would not be a surprise
Look at Ted Baker to see how the US money is bargain hunting . Don’t want to be sold cheaply like them though
The market seems to still want these shares offering 23.16 for a decent slug, 175000 shares. 35p looks a good shout to be the new bottom in the coming days barring no more bad news. Still moving up from here!
Late yesterday I averaged down and debated whether my gut or my head would win
My gut is feeling good today
Good luck to all LTHs recovering some of their losses here . My SIPP shares have come a drawer up from the bottom one today