Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
"rising costs" means rising costs to pubs. Like most retailers / on-trade businesses, earnings aren't high enough to cover the rise of costs.
So they are banking on the bulk of their consumers for the busy periods to still be able to cough up 20p more or so per pint rather than having to close down branches.
It's not just out of greed, they probably don't have a lot more options.
Not necessarily. If you study how retail works, you often see backlashes when the prices of key or iconic products rise, and sometimes after a brief dip, customers adjust and buy again as before.
That applies to non-luxury products / small purchases.
Larger buys like black goods / brown / white goods or cars are different.
So after a bit of noise from some consumers for a couple of months, history suggests that Stonegate's earnings will not be adversely affected in the medium term, and other pub chains will probably follow suit.
Which exact hedge fund?
Without specifics, it's total wishful thinking, sorry.
If it's in reference to the Coltrane Master Fund (1 and 15 August RNSs), those were not large acquisitions - and they were partly offset by Morgan Stanley offloading some of its holdings.
Right now, I noticed several 10+k and 50k buys, but I don't have any conclusive info as to the source.
For once, SuperC what you are writing is reasonable (Vs widely optimistic claims).
I’ve just got back into MARS: the chart isn’t clearly pointing in either direction TBH but the regular big buys for the past two days have stood out for me.
Robcodsall - your points are correct except for your suggestion that banks will become impatient. It’s not usually the case: so long as the borrower meets its payments deadlines, a bank is fine with a long-term loan repayment scheme as it means the bank keeps getting a steady income.
The only thing that MIGHT make the SP move is when actual profit figures are released - which will probably only be at the next set of unaudited results of 5 December.
https://www.marstonspubs.co.uk/investors/
Until then, more sales figures with no idea of how much money actually stays in Marston's coffers to pay its debt obligations at inflated interest rates vs the original rates pre-Covid when money was practically free.
Diagonal support line broken due to today's SP decrease: the bullish pattern has been invalidated.
This is not looking as good anymore.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/oIWeNSZe/
There is a flat top triangle (aka ascending triangle) taking shape.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/KuZtwoGM/
This suggests a consolidation before a significant move upwards.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/triangle.asp
FairDealer - SC has repeatedly shouted partial pictures of the company's business situation. He has not demonstrated any inside view - which would be illegal anyway.
The post from FINANCEmagic below does not actually provide any info on costs and other expenditures, expect the phrase "energy cost savings" but note that Marston's said it had its gas (or energy as a whole?) costs set to 2024 so it is likely less impact by the probably decrease of energy prices this quarter because its energy costs were (relatively) lower in the first place due to that prior arrangement.
What sticks out like a sore thumb, and which everybody vocally praising Marston's has carefully avoided mentioning, is the interest rate rises of the past 18-20 months. The pile of debts from Marston's was fine with low interest rates, but with the fast recent increases, that puts the business under extreme pressure.
Sure, some lender have set interest rates for several years ahead, but those loans are mostly staggered and regularly reevaluated.
Thus, there is no 100% clear information as to how close to the edge Marston's is (or not?) due to its debt pile, which probably explains why Marston's has been lingering near the bottom while other pub companies have risen well above in the meantime.
That explains why the SP still hasn't taken off then. There needs a substantial debt reduction event to help this share - putting £60m worth of property out for sale (so no actual finalisation of those sales yet) barely dents that £1bn+ debt pile and indeed hasn't impressed the market.
Yes, the board might be more open to accepting a takeover offer than it was 2.5 years ago - I would not be surprised if we get sold at 100p per share in 2 months (IIRC that was the highest figure rejected in February 2021?!…).
Available here:
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1021763/marston-s-impresses-as-pubs-remain-resilient-1021763.html?viewSource=TwitterUK
It’s shown here, in the accounts published on 16 May 2023.
https://www.marstonspubs.co.uk/docs/financials/2023/interim-results.pdf