Member Info for legobrickgirl

HYR is looking undervalued now.
Stockopedia has a NAV price per share of $1.04 which equates to 79p.
With the recent equity raise HYR has reduced debt and should have the funds to increase production which will in turn improve the profit margins considerably.
Disposal of the smaller loss making Australian facility is in process and looking at the next few months.
From my experience, after a capital raise and/or a consolidation a 20% drop often occurs over time. This would be 60p from the 75p consolidation price. Getting close to that now.
This is starting to look very attractive in value.

Obvious risks of continual feedstock issues which are hopefully overcome by the supply from G&S and I think they have sorted the feedstock issue as they would not be talking of raising the price if they could not supply on demand.
Other issue would be failing to dispose of Australia plant. If sold though, funds will likely be spent on updating Canton.
Finally, the stock is quite iliquid atm. Easy to buy, but can only sell small amounts. I think though, this will change as investors start to see the value here. I personally think around 60p will be the bottom. There is major support at 57p but I'm not sure how much that counts for after consolidation makes charting hard to do.

A valuation currently of £1 has been given and £2.50 target over next 3 years.
The valuation price is based mostly on two things.
1. Price increase of oil from $2.30 to $3.50 per litre.
2. Increase in sales of transformer oil due to increased demand.

The demand in the US for transformer oil is high and is going to continue to be high because of the ageing substations which are in a process of being replaced/upgraded/serviced. The average age of these substations is approx 40 years old with 75% of them being 25+ years old.
Canton in Ohio is in a prime location with regards to the amount of substations in the US.
Add to this that GDP is set to grow at a rate of 2.1% until 2040 in the states, there will be a growing demand for electricity and therefore transformer oil to service the substations.

There is a possibility that spare cash may well be spent on improving capacity to 100%. Currently it stands at a maximum of 90% and 12m gallons.

Regarding talk of collaboration with Slickers, that is all very quiet at the moment which makes me wonder is the logistic costs are too high presently. Maybe something for the future.
What I am looking forward to hearing about is the disposal of the Australian facility. It was moved to discontinued operations half way through 2018 which will reduce losses but until sold off, there will still be costs. They are hoping to dispose of it this year.

ok np.

Hey, can you have a look at L2 for hyr and tell me if there is any large sell orders.
Hyr has a NAV of 79p and after consolidation I’m guessing could see a 20% drop from 75p which will be 60p. Getting close. Analyst report recently putting a value of it at £1 and target of £2:50 predicting substantial growth in next 3 years.
Of out, will check back later.

I do not think we will hear details so much about feedstock. Most of it will come from G&S which is a win win situation for G&S due to their 15% stake in hyr.
The supply and demand is set to increase quite considerable in the next few years but the cost of the feedstock is also to rise. This is likely to be offset by hyr intending to increase their price per litre from approx $2.3 to $3.5.
The canton plant is well situated in the US as there is a concentration of substations in that area which helps a lot due to her having to cover the costs of transport which is expensive due to lack of hgv drivers in the states.
Canton over the last year has been running at just 50 to 55% capacity due to lack of feedstock. With improved supply though, capacity can be raised which greatly increases the margin of profit. At 70% capacity there is a 35% return on capital where at 90% capacity it is a 90% return.
Forecasts of revenues and profits are predicted to rise making hyr profitable in 2019. By 2021 forecasts for revenues is 29.3m and group EBITDA of 10.7m with an EPS of 23.8.
I guessed there would be 3m left over from last years financing which I thought would be used to pay of A Black. Instead I think it is going to be used to buy more feedstock so they can store it for quieter times of the year when feedstock is low. This will help then to supply transformer oil on demand enabling them to charge the higher price.
Debt is forecast to be paid of by 2021 with 6m cash holding.

There is the full report 42trader mentioned.

The launch of BritBox is motivating by higher demand for SVOD services
considering that more households are ready to subscribe to multiple SVOD
services and also by the successful expansion of Netflix.
For ITV, the investment net of cost savings is estimated up to £25m in 2019 and
around £40m in 2020 then to decline thereafter.
Impact
We will factor in the 2018 set of figures and should revise our estimate downwards
given the pressure on advertising during the first four months of 2019.

Start to the year 2019.
Since the beginning of the year 2019, the ITV Family share of viewing is
increasing by 6% and the volume of viewing is up 2%. Nevertheless, the shortterm outlook is challenging as regards the demand for advertising due to
economic and political uncertainties in the UK. Total advertising revenue should
decrease by -3-4% in the first four months of 2019.
Finally, ITV confirmed the final phase of talks with the BBC for the launch of
BritBox which is a new on-demand and ad-free streaming service.
Analysis
Broadcast & online
In 2018, total advertising revenue was £1,795m representing 86% of Broadcast &
online revenue. The moderate increase in advertising revenue (+1% vs. -5% in
2017) benefited from strong growth in online (+36%) which more than offset the
decrease in spot advertising. The increase in the ITV Family share of viewing
(+1.5pt to 23.2% o/w 16.9% for the main channel) and the volume of viewing
(+3%) were good supports. Management also emphasized the higher share of
viewing in the 16-34yr age group. ITV 16-34 volume of viewing decreased by 2%
for the ITV Family (o/w +2% for the main channel) while 16-34 volume of viewing
dropped by 13% in the TV market.
The UK advertising market has been affected by a lack of confidence due to the
economic and political uncertainty related to Brexit. Retail (the prime contributor to
ITV advertising revenue, 17% of the total), Food, Cosmetics, Airlines/Travel &
Holidays, Automotive reduced their advertising spendings in 2018. Conversely,
ITV benefited from advertising spending increases from Telecommunications
(+18%), Entertainment and Leisure (+14% boosted by the Football World Cup),
Government (+14%).
The year 2019 looks uncertain on the back of the confusion on a Brexit deal. ITV
is anticipating a decrease of 3-4% in advertising in the first four months.
‘Integrated Producer Broadcaster’
ITV is committed to strenghening its ‘integrated Producer Broadcaster’ specificity.
In 2018, ITV Studios had a good performance with organic revenue growth of 4%,
higher adjusted EBITA (+5%) and a stable adjusted EBITA margin (15% of
revenue).
Revenue outside the UK increased to 56% of the total in 2018 (vs. 54% in 2017).
It reflected a strong performance of Studios ROW (including strong growth in
France due to the Voice and the Voice Kids) and Global Entertainment
(distribution business) thanks to significant deliveries of drama to Netflix, Amazon,
Hulu for instance.
ITV Studios has a strong pipeline for 2019 and onwards. Good organic revenue
growth is expected in 2019 considering more revenue (c.£100m) currently
secured compared to the same period last year.
New streaming service BritBox
ITV confirmed the final phase of talks with BBC for the launch of BritBox which is
a new streaming service, on-demand and ad-free. BritBox will provide British TV
films, new original and exclusive series, a range of programmes from ITV, BBC
and other broadcasters.

A rather good set of figures for 2018.
Earnings/sales releases - 28/02/2019
ITV had honourable figures in 2018. Total advertising revenue was up 1%,
above guidance (stability estimated). The broadcast of the Football World
Cup, the increase in the ITV Family share of viewing (+1.5pt to 23.2%) and
the volume of viewing (+3%) were good supports for advertising revenue in
a context of lower spendings in various sectors in the UK. Finally, ITV
confirmed the final phase for the launch of BritBox which is a new
streaming service on demand and ad-free.
Fact
2018 figures.
The proposed dividend is 8.0p/share (+3%) in line with the board of directors’
decision to pay 8.0p/share in both 2018 and 2019.
Start to the year 2019.
Since the beginning of the year 2019, the ITV Family share of viewing is
increasing by 6% and the volume of viewing is up 2%. Nevertheless, the shortterm outlook is challenging as regards the demand for advertising due to
economic and political uncertainties in the UK. Total advertising revenue should
decrease by -3-4% in the first four months of 2019.
Finally, ITV confirmed the final phase of talks with the BBC for the launch of
BritBox which is a new on-demand and ad-free streaming service.
Analysis
Broadcast & online
In 2018, total advertising revenue was £1,795m representing 86% of Broadcast &
online revenue. The moderate increase in advertising revenue (+1% vs. -5% in
2017) benefited from strong growth in online (+36%) which more than offset the
decrease in spot advertising. The increase in the ITV Family share of viewing
(+1.5pt to 23.2% o/w 16.9% for the main channel) and the volume of viewing
(+3%) were good supports. Management also emphasized the higher share of
viewing in the 16-34yr age group. ITV 16-34 volume of viewing decreased by 2%
• Total revenue was £3,766m (+3%), 48% of which derived from advertising.
External revenue increased to £3,211m (+3%) in line with expectation. It
included total advertising revenue up 1% (vs. flat guidance) o/w +36%
online. ITV Studios’ revenue grew by 6% o/w +4% organically.
• Adjusted EBITA decreased to £810m (-4%), including a lower contribution
from Broadcasting & online at £555m (-7%) due to higher programming
costs with the broadcast of the Football World Cup, partly offset by a
higher contribution from ITV Studios at £255m (+5%).
• Adjusted net profit was down 4% to £617m.
• Reported net profit of £466m (vs. £409m in 2017) included acquisitionrelated costs of £60m (vs. £90m in 2017), restructuring and property costs
of £26m (vs. £30m in 2017), a £10m gain on the sale of Manchester Quay
Street essentially.
• Free cash flow was £469m (-11%) (after interest cost and tax paid,
pension funding) due to an increase in stock related to the programme
delivery schedule. Net debt amounted to £927m (+1.6%) at year-end 2018.

The proposed dividend is 8.0p/share (+3%) in line with the board of directors’
decision to pay 8.0p/share in both 2018 and 2019.

Financial Forecasts
Our forecasts represent 30% revenue CAGR and 92% EBITDA CAGR (pre-central costs),
driven by improving capacity utilisation and pricing uplift from utility customers over the
next 3 years.
In our model, this is largely driven by increased capacity utilisation from improved
feedstock levels, although there are some pricing and cost assumptions which reflect
Hydrodec’s access to the utility market.

Valuation
Hydrodec trades on 4.6x EV/EBITDA, 9.4x P/E, 5.6% dividend yield and a 15% FCF yield
(all 2020E). Although we acknowledge execution is required through 2019, we believe
the existing assets and potential for high cash returns are extremely attractive to equity
investors at current levels.

We base our target price on forward peer multiples, sense checked with a DCF
methodology. The US refining sector broadly trades on a 5-7x EV/EBITDA and 9-11x P/E
(eg. Valero, Phillips, Marathon) but we believe Hydrodec can trade at the top end or
above this range given the transformative growth on offer and would see this as
conservative.
We set our target price at 100p which equates to 6.8x EV/EBITDA 2020E (ie. Top of the
range) and 14x 2020E P/E. On our forecasts, 2020E represents a strong operational year
but with significant earnings upside in to 2021 as further pricing and operating leverage
comes through. As such, on 2021E multiples, the stock only trades on 1.8x EV/EBITDA
and 3.7x P/E with a 30% FCF yield.
We model a DCF valuation to sense check the numbers. Inevitably, given the large
weighting of cash flow in the later forecast years and the terminal value, the DCF
provides a valuation of c. 250p a share although we recognise the execution required
over the coming years to crystallise this value. That said, our view of Hydrodec’s assets and strategy leads us to believe there is material upside for investors in this stock and
initiate with a buy rating.

With nastid MIA, thought I'd better do a post for him.

Hydrodec* 12/02/19
Fuelling Growth – Initiating with Buy
We initiate on Hydrodec with a buy rating and 100p target price.
Our view is predicated on the likely sharp increase in EBITDA and
cash flow as working capital inflows from the recent capital raise
drive improving capacity utilisation and operating leverage. In
our view, the shares currently price very limited operational
improvements, if any, and although we acknowledge that
refining is a technically challenging process, we believe the
Group’s expertise is sufficient to manage the increasing output,
driving revenue and EBITDA CAGR of 30% and 92% respectively
2018-21E.
Working capital to drive utilisation – We believe the Group can achieve
capacity utilisation of 85% in 2021 which drives 72% 2yr EBITDA CAGR as
the benefits of increasing capacity utilisation are realised with increased
throughput of working capital in to Hydrodec’s US facility. The operating
leverage is such that a 1ppt change in capacity utilisation in 2020 can
impact EBITDA by 2.6% and EPS by 5%, due to financial leverage. This
provides very strong risk-reward for execution, which we believe is not
appropriately priced in the shares at current levels.
Favourable utility market dynamics – The demand for transformer oil,
particularly in the USA exhibits fundamentally strong growth prospects,
providing a positive outlook for Hydrodec’s SUPERFINE™ oil. Recent and
forecasted investment in the US transmission network, along with an
increasing need to service an ageing infrastructure, in our view, provides
the foundations for this growth with attractive pricing dynamics for
Hydrodec in the utility markets.
Longer Term Capacity expansion – Hydrodec’s proprietary technology
and market opportunity suggests high utilisation is possible and strong
double digit returns on capital employed for incremental capacity reflect
scope for significant value creation for equity investors in the medium-tolong term.
Financial forecasts – Our forecasts represent 30% revenue CAGR and
92% EBITDA CAGR (pre-central costs), driven by improving capacity
utilisation from 70% to 85% and pricing uplift of c.30% from utility
customers over the next 3 years.
Attractive valuation considering growth – Hydrodec trades on 4.6x
EV/EBITDA, 9.4x P/E, 5.6% dividend yield and a 15% FCF yield (all 2020E).
Although we acknowledge execution is required through 2019, we believe
the existing assets and potential for high cash returns are extremely
attractive to equity investors at current levels.

Like the movie icon he is?

Note.
No, I never met up with Lego.

Yep, he did love them two. But now he has sid.

Yes I heard Lego liked to bat for the other team now and then.

Mos. Pretty sure every post made by lego was deleted.

Seems to me the report is suggestion Amerisur should be valued at more than 7x current value based on what other companies with similar sized assets are turning down, being valued at $2b while amerisur has a £200m market cap.

Talked last night with someone who works with a lot of Dutch people. Not mentioned in our news, but the Dutch people are very unhappy with being in the EU also and apparently they do not want to remain in the EU.

Investors talk of recent BOD buys but the reality is the BOD have been buying large amounts for several years. The sp has been taken down for the last few years, NOT based on fundamentals which were strong two years ago and even stronger now.
I was happy to buy at 21p, 15p and again (extremely happy to buy) at 11p. People expect share prices to move overnight but this very rarely happens. With the recent BOD buys we shouldn't have any news for a few weeks.
The sp is testing resistance at this price so I will be happy for it to go sideways for a while and consolidate the recent gains after the breakout of the downward trend at 15.5p.
Once this resistance at 20p is broken we should hopefully see a quick rise to 27p.

gla