Member Info for Legalwolf

AG has been pumping ECR for as long as I can remember. Is he invested?

Mentalmax - also just watched the interview of 22 December. Overall, I thought it was REALLY good in terms of conveying a sense of progress to come in H1 and H2 of 2023, clearly setting out ECR's focus and ambitions. But jeez, I forgot just how excruciatingly bad AJ is at presenting? Why doesn't he just learn his lines, practice his script beforehand and deliver it with conviction and confidence, rather than his lazy, wishy washy, answers. I really think its better if AH does the media alone, because as likeable and honest as AJ clearly is, he just doesn't convey confidence, in the way that he should, and is in stark contrast to AH and AS. Better to just leave him to do the geology, and keep him away from the camera imo.

Hi Tamer - yes, had a detailed look at the Hurricane RNS. Sounds very promising to me based on the nearology, but also important is AH's previous knowledge/experience of the project. I don't know how reliable an indicator rock chip samples taken at surface are though to what's beneath the ground? But, the total consideration for the project will come to £3.8 million, so you are not going to agree to that unless you have a high level of conviction/confidence.

It's a pretty desperate situation. The company has insufficient funds to do any drilling and is back to where it was before it last placed. How does it, realistically, get itself out of this situation? Does it place at even lower levels, and even if it does do that, where will another £500k take it, other than to pay the salaries for another year, and then its back to this position again? This vicious circle, or more accurately downward spiral, can only be broken by money coming in from the outside, from a sale of an asset, or a JV. But what reason is there to think that this will happen, when it hasn't so far?
I think they might have little choice but to give the Cameroon projects away for dirt cheap to a better funded junior, and become the minority partner. They have taken them as far as they can on the funds available. All imo

It's pretty futile arguing with each other. It's been going on for weeks and isn't really changing anything, let alone individual views. Right now we know the share price is on a downward trend and there isn't much buying to arrest its decline. This is NOT going to be altered by arguing on here. It will ONLY be altered by ECR releasing newsflow that changes the sentiment and the situation, and resulting in strong buying. And/or the price reaches an important technical level.
The longer ECR takes to release news that generates strong buying, the more time the share price has to just continue its downward drift. That's just the 'laws of share price physics', and no amount of arguing the pros and cons with each other about ECR is going to alter that fact. So what's the point of arguing each day, every day. But then it's not for me to dictate how others choose to post, but it's just that it doesn't really make this a very useful or good bb. All imo

At the moment, its fair to say that POW is not standing out in terms of its absolute or relative performance as compared to its peers. It is basically following the market, notwithstanding any actual, proclaimed or perceived uniqueness it has through its portfolio or spinout mode. Therefore, the jury is very much still out on whether the portfolio and spinout model is going to detract enough AIM investors, or more accurately, attract enough AIM investors to POW, to lead it to outperform. I have my doubts, as I believe the bottom line is still about discoveries. And whilst the spinout model allows more projects to be developed and lead to discovery, there is a part of me that still believes that our own share price will mostly be driven by success or otherwise on our own projects. But that's just my personal opinion based on current evidence.

And FYI, I actually made money in both GCAT and ECR, in contrast to my investment here!

ORR have just put out a RNS about lithium/pegmatites, and some are viewing it suspiciously as a pre-cursor pump, prior to a raise. Are we sure this isn't going to be a bandwagon that some juniors try to jump on, which occasionally happens, because lithium is like the go to commodity right now?

Yet you only seem to post on POW and always positively! Maybe you will see some returns here by the time you get to Warren's age! We are all entitled to our opinions, and should be able to debate all opinions/views on here, without getting catty or personal about it.

Why would anyone choose to invest in an AIM company only to see returns in a few years? A lot of dilution will cross under the bridge in that time. Surely, you invest because you believe you will get near term returns. Otherwise, why not just come back here in a few years or when you think the company will deliver growth, and not have your money stuck in it during the period where you think it will merely consolidate? I must confess that I don't get that. Is the this is a slow burner, simply something comforting we tell ourselves to make up for the 'disappointment'?

RX - are you simply waiting for the share price to hit a particular target/level before you buy, or are you also waiting on newsflow?

At the moment, you can easily see it being another junior that ends up drilling the CLP. Maybe some kind of reincarnation of ORR, which itself was a reincarnation of sorts.I don't know if its realistic or too late, but should ORR consider a spinout re Cameroon? The offspring company wouldn't have the same issues and baggage as ORR, and I could see more investors coming on board that way as well.

My questions would be:
1) Why is the market not responding positively to your own bullishness about ORCP?
2) What do you think will be the trigger points for a rise in the share price, and how near or far away are they?
3) Why doesn't ORCP publish timelines for its projects, showing each of the stages and their anticipated timescales? This will better enable shareholders to understand what is happening, what still needs to happen, and when it is expected to happen by? This also gives some accountability and sense of direction, rather than it being off the hoof.
4) Successive placings have come at lower levels. What hope can you give to new investors that if they invest today, they can look forward to sustained share price growth, and not just more dilution at current or lower levels?
5) Why has/is the BOD failing to deliver on projects with timeliness and on delivering share price growth?

Okay, so some of these are rhetorical, and probably overly challenging, but then what's the point of just going through the motions and ending up with more of the same. The BOD do need a bit of jolt imo.

Don't the vast majority of junior explorers get to this point (and then ultimately fail and fold)? They have a limited amount of time and financial runway during which they either have managed to prove up their projects, to the point of a JV or sale to a major, or they haven't, and then its a slow, painful, death by dilution, as the macro environment becomes less favourable?
ORR is out of cash and can't afford to do any more drilling with its current finances. The market can also see this very clearly. The problem is the amount of cash the company needs is significant. There's no point raising £500k, as all that does is to keep the lights on for another 6 months or so. In order to start drilling again, and to make that drilling worthwhile, in terms of generating a share price moving situation, they will need closer to £1.5million. And no way they are going to get that right now.
I also wonder how many of the juniors that have ended up on the scrap heap over the years, had fantastical broker notes to accompany their demise? All imo

TS - agreed. Which makes the next campaign at CresWick, a hugely critical one for ECR. More so than the current drilling at Blue Moon, which is probably going to be a smallish deposit at best? I just hope they have enough fuel in the tank to go at CresWick with both drills, and do enough drilling so that if the results are decent, there's enough drilling results overall to entice a JV partner.

Bumble - if this drilling has the potential to develop the project to the point where it could entice a JV partner, then that's fair enough, and allays my concern. But it has to be recognised that it can take up to a year from one drilling campaign to the next at our projects (Molopo, Haneti, Tati, etc), and so if we only really get one attempt at them each year, you want them to be significant steps. We are an AIM listed company after all, in a very competitive space, and most investors aren't going to hang around for years, whilst we snail pace our way through our burgeoning portfolio, looking for that first major discovery. All imo

I thought I had done okay with my 1.7p average, and now looking for BT/KAV to give concrete reasons for averaging down (again). Just goes to show how much sentiment has been damaged across all three projects (and for different reasons). Whilst not putting that all at BT's door, a "fully funded" junior with circa £3- 4 million should be doing much better than this?

It's going to take a LOT to persuade me to reinvest here. Never say never, but at the moment, one of the biggest factors for me is the Prospectus. For two simple reasons:
1) It will help allay some of the concern about FCA regulatory action. Its delay right now IS concerning.
2) It will tell us exactly what the new share capital is, which in turn will tell us exactly what they have been doing in the background with share dealings etc in the last 12 months. Official information.
This is as important as the funding/finances for me, although I guess the two are related, in that any funder will no doubt also be interested in such as part of their own due diligence.
I'd like to think the current silence is because they are feeling 'embarrassed', and want to put things right first before re-appearing, as opposed to it being because they have been 'exposed', and nobody wants to risk giving them air time and inadvertently contributing towards them misleading the market and investors. All imo and dyor.

I should probably explain my thinking behind the "curtain call" comment. I am NOT suggesting CresWick or Blue Moon are dead. Far from it, CresWick is the MAIN reason I am still interested in ECR. However, we have to be realistic and realise that ECR has bitten off much more than it can afford to chew here with all these projects/licences. And so it is imperative for it to identify and then double down on the (two?) projects it thinks demonstrate the best potential for share price growth. They will be switching to Queensland in H2 anyway, and I just feel that if CresWick and/or Blue Moon disappoint in the interim, and especially if Queensland outperforms Victoria on the results/promise/potential front, then that's where ECR's limited resources and focus will end up. Shareholders always want to see focus and progress on the flagships, and if Queensland excited, where Victoria has disappointed, that's where they will want ECR to be as well.
There are quite a few examples of juniors out there with too many projects, that they can't afford to progress, or that they get lost amongst in terms of knowing where to focus limited resources, that they ultimately end up lost at sea and in a downward spiral (of dilution). I don't think AH will allow that to happen, but I do sense that he wants to identify which of the projects offers the best chance of a commercial find, and then he will necessarily have to focus ECRs limited resources on it. Of course, they might be able to sell or JV assets which show that promise, which would be an all together different equation. All imo

Thanks for the link Gino. It does seem like the current Blue Moon drilling, and the upcoming drilling at CresWick, could be the curtain call in Victoria (especially if the results continue to underwhelm), and ECR will instead switch its focus towards its Queensland projects. I do get the impression that AH's wants to move in that direction, as is more excited by Queensland than he is by Victoria. Nothing wrong with that, if that's where there are the best prospects of success.
So a critical/defining 6 months or so coming up for the Victoria licences I suspect?