Member Info for Know0

Moon and I have never met and much of our analysis etc differs to some degree. BUT not all

I intended adding again today so a bit disappointed but may still get to do so.

Why would I add? Cashflow issues can happen to the best of companies and I think TB (as CEO) but BOD in general have mucked up badly (by not hedging) and overspending.

Take RMM as a Formula 1 Racing car - you still need a quality driver to win races, not a 20st mechanic behind the wheel. Thankfully, there are many that can pay good money for the F1 car and already have many proven quality drivers to jump in quickly.

Ming is a truly work class deposit and grows every time they shove a drill in the ground

Everyone knows on Monday we have a repayment to make and extremely unlikely to be in a position to make it - NewGen will be fully aware and will in principle have agreed to what is (whatever that is) happening behind the scenes

One thing I am absolutely sure of, Rambler is not going bust / into admin / receivership - people saying that have no idea how these things work.

I hope it is a sale - there are rumours of a few NF mines being purchased (gold and copper) - this is just RUMOUR.

If BM could find a way to go it alone, I believe he would - but maybe all have realised they simply cant do it and need a larger group that can add economies of scale, develop LD and if rumours are correct, add other companies in BV area - sounds like a great Private Equity play but could be the plan of a mid tier miner also.

HanCon have left site - still owed money - last 20 Eees went mth ago, rest mths before that.

BUT - the mine is operating 4 full crews - plenty of ore and mill is running continuously.

The only difference between today and yesterday for me is that I cant buy or sell shares (buy was my plan).

IF (and that is a big if) we are going to get an offer for the company, I expect it to be north of 50p but not as much as 75p - but its worth over a £ so who knows.

The next RNS could easily be, we failed to make the payment and NewGen are happy & trading continues - this could be tmrw, Mon or Tuesday

If you cant sell a Copper mine with all the expected demand for copper that has way over a BN lbs of copper (so even at todays $3.50 is worth $4Bn gross) then you shouldn't be running a chip shop let alone a public company.

Further speculation if we could sell to a PE firm, we would get a cash offer for our shares. If on the other hand the company recommended a sale to a mid tier miner, we would likely get shares offered in their company for our shares - at some formula to closing price on the day before announcement.

Anyway, it will be what it will be BUT one thing I am absolutely positive on, is anyone that bought shares in the last 6 mths will eventually come good - maybe (hopefully) everyone that bought in the past few years

We may also get notice of a Cr card that we use for Monday and SP drops again - short termism is not investing - fun

Moon -

Thomas, whats your surname?

Martyn

Moon. I’m not hiding.
Happy to chat or meet bro.

You know how to get hold of me. Just DM me and we will talk.

Toby not Tim

Moon - why do you say 7 ??

The RNS says several not seven??

Only good thing with SO at this price for LTH is if it forces a sale. Otherwise for LTH it is a disaster. Simples. And that’s why BOD need replacing.

All IMO bro

Moon - Not a pump and dump here - still holding approx 1.3M shares - not happy but also not overly concerned.

Never claimed to live next to mine - you kept saying that - I live in Halifax Nova Scotia - NF is also Atlantic Canada but Deer Lake is 2 hour flight! (like London to Lisbon but with a 30 min time zone difference!)

Hope you did get to mine and if you flew through Halifax, gutted you didnt get in contact cos would definitely met for a beer.

From what I was told as to where you were, then you must've flown to St Johns and driven (7/8 hrs) to BV

Tim lives in New Brunswick (about 3 hours drive from me and I met him last year for dinner)

Not sure why you think the catastrophic RNS was "good news" apart from opportunity to load up - Ive added but will probably regret not adding more but Im in for a load and the rest of the markets mean I dont want to sell other shares either

Anyway - if you did fly through NS, it was a shame - you could easily have reached out and we could've put the worlds to right bro

GLA holders and pls DYOR

Must be you MB - I've had responses

Moon - what reply? Cant remember last time I was on here - come onto discord and DM me bro

GLA (still holding all my shares btw - have only added in the last month)

If a company goes into administration, the secured creditors and govt taxes get the first cash (and the administrators costs)

The all unsecured creditors (Elemental would be one of these along with HanCon and haulage company etc

Then shareholders

BUT as I said, there is NO chance (IMHO) of this going into admin and I would sell all now rather than buy more as I have, if I had any doubt about administration

Why? They are not a secured creditor that we are aware of. We dont know how much aged creditors beyond terms is but expect a couple of $M max

Net debt is $20M (inc NewGen, Caterpillar etc) (down from 31 Dec 21)

BUT there is absolutely NO chance of this going into administration - see explanations above

Dan - TB confirmed this is what they are doing currently - reduces cost per tonne as they mine the higher grades whilst CU is lower.

He was very clear as to the fact they are able to pay all costs currently falling due.

The next update will be interesting - if its just NewGen deferral or if they have a more complete package to offer with debt and equity - they will need shareholders approval for straight forward dilution.

This is so 2021!! Apart from the fact we are in a much better operational position than then

Onwards and upwards

GLA

Ryan - M&A is my speciality - Ive sold NASDAQ companies down to £1M turnover companies

You sold - well done you did the right thing. You dont want to buy back - sensible you shouldn't.

RMM is not a distress sale but if it was it would sell for multiples of Current Market Cap - BUT they want to go it alone

My first decent size acquisition from was Administrators - I bought a company with £10M turnover and 89 staff. I then sold it a few years later at a decent profit.

So apologies for this, but a part time publican and cafe owner has no idea about M&A in the big boys world.

Yesterdays RNS gave me confirmation of what I expected after the early Sept car crash RNS - and that is that its not that bad and I have successfully restructured companies in way worse states with significant gearing - RMM gearing is tiny!

GLA

Clear that some posters do not understand selling a company or selling the assets are 2 completely different transactions and have 2 completely difference outcomes.

An equity sale would give the new owner everything - they would probably need $5M to clear old debt and buy some time and a further $10-15M for Ore Sorter

This is not much money - so talk of $50M or $200M is complete nonsense.

An exploration company would love to find Ming after spending $50M and look to spend a few $00M setting it up (and have LD thrown in for free!) -

So an asset sale of MM for $100M is certainly not out of the questioning taken as a going concern

An equity sale (either in cash or paper swap) is therefore very attractive to a buyer at $50M plus (probably $75M)

Also to dispel the myth, but NewGen cannot force the company into administration (from what has been provided wrt the loan note) as they are not even owed their first payment for over a month and if the one payment is made (by whatever means) then they cant do anything until December etc

The Board of Directors have a strict test as to whether they are trading whilst insolvent - if they are, they can become personally liable for debts. They will have had expert advice here and clearly they believe there is way out of this.

NewGen is the only generally secured creditor (people like Cat Finance for the new equipment will be secured against the specific plant) and the biggest unsecured creditors will be HanCon who are our miners and the haulage company and fuel suppliers. Some of the local suppliers gave a lot of leniency to RMM during Covid and many will now be expecting their money, BUT would probably wait a little longer

Without seeing the Aged Creditors I would expect Hancon to be the largest creditor - they have recently taken shares at 29p against 2021 liabilities so no doubt they have bills from Q1 2022 that are not being paid - but they continue to mine. They know mining its their business and they keep mining Ming for us.

So talk of administration IMHO is complete nonsense as no supplier is looking to force that.

In considering the next 3 months cashflow forecast, if NewGen will defer, there is no urgent need but obviously they will be wanting to repay the faith provided by HanCon and others

All this means that a refinance or a sale can easily be arranged in an orderly manner that will give Brad Mills (and all us other shareholders) a reasonable return - not the £1 we all hoped for by end of next year etc, but certainly a return.

However, it appears (from reading the RNS) that BOD want to go it alone - get a restructure of current NewGen debt plus get additional project funding for the ore sorter - but they still have to raise some more equity to get that way ($1-2M min) and need CU to get closer to $3.70 or above

One thing for sure K2 got out cos they had a closer look at the books

Insiders will not be allowed to buy or sell shares at the moment as they w

I recently did some Due Dilligence work for a Venture Capital company on one of their investments - they had 2 weeks worth of cash left and since then they have got rid of the last 2 directors and all the staff and premises - no cash, no trading business - they have just engaged me to assist on the sale of the company as there are 2 (possibly 3) interested parties that appear to want to pay over $1M (CAD) for the IP of this startup that has never had a successful sales order (theyve had sales but the product has never worked properly). So those wondering about a copper mine with huge resources and the whole medium term outlook for copper and wondering whether or not Rambler can get a sensible deal to sell, then absolutely they can - and I say it could be all cash or cash and shares or even a straight share swap, but expect it to be min 35p per share

Those saying NewGen will just take the asset have no idea what they are talking about - it doesn't work like that.

If you believe Copper will be at $4 or above within the next 3 mths, then fill your boots - I have already bought more and am now freeing other cash to buy even more at this prices

But I am High risk so follow your own investing strategy and DYOR

Due to Brad Mills holding plus TB plus NewGen plus Contractors most at prices higher than mine and knowing NewGen will be confident in the medium term CU price and the reduction of costs from an Ore sorter, gives me the confidence I will still make a lot of money.

The difference with rational investors is that we don’t 5 hit the bed every few minutes and having decent experience in M&A and running companies I remain frustrated by TB and BOD but still confident in the asset.

If they put this up for sale we would all make a fortune.

I said last year that TB was a liability as a businessman and remain of the same opinion (although I was accused of deramping!)
I also said in July when we went to quarterly reporting (and I msg the company at the time with this) that they had something to hide.

The BOD are untrustworthy BUT the conpany is worth many times the SP and that is why I haven’t and won’t sell but will add when the time is right.

GLA - DYOR and follow your research and don’t listen to most of the nonsense posts here

The issue in H1 was Q1. $6.42 per lb C1 cost We knew that at the time.

Q2 C1 costs were about what CU price has been last few weeks but falling all the time (June $2.90).

Guidance is C1 costs $2.70 ish by end of year. Take the obvious need to do some capital works and they are able to pay new bills on time and no issues (if they didn’t have the old ones to deal with).

They will likely structure some of the larger supplier debts as paying over a longer period of time, but all of this needs CU price to rise

BUT (most) those suppliers will be supportive I have no doubt.

NewGen kicked down the road for a little more margin or sweetener and I wouldn’t be surprised if linked to additional borrowing for Ore Sorter but will need some dilution as deposit for the ore sorter

after reading RNS I feel better knowing this than I did before today.

Yes it’s not great but it is what it is and I am still of the strong belief CU will be $4-4.50 in Q1 2023 and rising from now until Dec to $4.

If they’ve done a deal with the mining subcontractor to reduce output until mid October then our variable cost to mine is reduced at the time CU has been low (past month or so).

My trust in BOD was gone last December (as many here will attest to as most hated my posts then). If it wasn’t for this lack of trust I have I would go all in now on the current SP

Much is stacked in RMM favour even with NewGen as it has just been reminded to me that NewGen took $5M equity (at around 35p) and warrants that expire in only another 3 years at exercise price of 35p.

Contractors recently took £1M of shares at 29p.

All of this has many stakeholders in RMM that are very desperate for it to work out here and soon!!

Calamari, you are correct that CapEx is Balance Sheet not P&L, but the H1 "loss" to which you refer includes 9.5M depreciation charge (for said capital expenses)

This is why businesses are valued based upon EBITDA and FCF

Here both EBITDA (15M) and FCF (7M) are exceptional measures based on the 76M revenue.

There is an expectation that both EBITDA and FCF will be higher in H2 again - Debt has been reduced and will continue to be reduced with substantial FCF and less capital expenditure

As others have said, now that so many of the distractions have been taken away, we should have a more simplified business proposition to consider in the coming years

Great H1 results and we should see SP rising later this year IMHO

GLA

Bradbury has to go for any confidence in the company to return

A decent miner but couldn't run a bath let alone a company

Has to go whatever the results

Not sold any btw - considering a top up next week but dont see the need to rush yet