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@Jonah,
This person seems to be suffering from a disorder. If you read all of his previous posts, you will find out something wrong with this person. In one of his previous posts, you will even find put his mobile no. He disclosed his personal mobile number on the forum to discuss with others.
The best way to keep the board clean is report it to the LSE.
The Deal:
Avion will pay $25m to Immupharma for a new Ph3 trial for Lupozor(a drug for lupus patients).
Avion will pay $70m to Immupharma as milestone payment.
Avion will pay 17% royalties to Immupharma.
The deal only for the USA market and Immupharma will have full control outside the USA market.
Market potentiality for ED market vs lupus market:
In the USA no. of lupus patients approximately 150m vs almost 50% of men age between 40 to 70 years suffering from ED problem. Another 26% men below 40 years also has mild to moderate ED problem.
So, the potentiality for Med2005(Eroxon) is much higher than Lupuzor.
Lupuzor Efficacy vs Placebo:
The efficacy of Lupuzor in Ph3 trial was 71.1% against 48.8% for Placebo.
We are expecting much better efficacy for Med2005 vs Placebo.
GL everyone.
Liberum also expected in their research note today that Ph3 trial data will be released mid of December. The summary of their research note is ''We believe there are 20 feasible outcomes of which just 1 would represent failure and leave no chance of approval”, Liberum said, adding that if the treatment was approved it could achieve peak sales annually of up to £500mln.
Summary of the research note added in Proactive Investors.
Sorry, WT Lamb Investment added more than 1m shares on 8 November (RNS released as TR-1 on 11 November).
Although every indication of Ph3 readout data is very positive, the market looks very nervous at this moment.
Positive?
On 11 October RNS disclosed that WT Lamb Investment added more than 1m shares.
On 14 October Mrs. James Barder (daughter of WT Lamb) transferred her shares to ISA to avoid CGT.
On 21 October RNS mentioned that interest from the patients for OLE is very high and 450 patients being elected to carry out (Note: OLE participators are unpaid).
When the Ph3 readout data will be released?
On 21 October RNS said, all patients now completed in the first European Phase 3 study, "FM57", of MED2005. Futura remains on track to deliver headline data by the end of 2019. At the end of the RNS James Barder (CEO) added that
"We are extremely pleased to have achieved this important milestone and look forward to the Phase 3 data readout, which is on track to deliver headline efficacy and safety data in December this year’’.
On every occasion, the company made it clear that they expect the readout data will be released by the end of 2019. So, it is sometime in December. I personally expect mid-December.
@idg69 Well said.
Before the publication of Ph2 trial readout data, in a couple of weeks, the share price spiked from below 20p to 95p. Now also only a couple of weeks left before the publication of ph3 read out data. On 21 October RNS has confirmed the completion of the final dose. The company also confirmed the patient recruitment for the ‘Open-Label Extension (OLE)’ study required for 12 months has been completed. It is worthy to note that patients' interest to elect for OLE was very high.
Funding
All recent indications and company activities suggest that ph3 trial data obtained by the company by this time is very impressive. They are also very active in the USA. Obviously, the company needs funding for a ph3 study in the USA separately (ph3 part2) to get FDA approval. If the company would not highly optimistic about the readout data, they would not take any risk for funding and waiting for the result.
Once the read out data is positive or exceed the expectation, the first option of funding is licencing deal which was mentioned previously. If the licensing deal doesn’t happen within the expectation level then the only dilution with minimum level. I will be surprised if I don’t see any licensing deal with any USA company after a positive result. I will put the chance of dilution one in twenty this time.
Is market potentiality of MED2005 reduced? No. Market potentiality is growing higher and higher. Then why the share price dropped?
Fum share price is very vulnerable at this moment due to low confidence on management for their past record. What is their biggest failure? The biggest failure is considered in the market is the failure to commercialized CSD500.
But MED2005 is a totally different game then CSD500.
Why?
I never considered CSD500 is a very good idea in a business sense. Why? Because CSD500 using GTN to make stronger and more pleasant intercourse. Can it be helpful to the people who are suffering from erectile dysfunction? GTN is useful for helping erection in between 5-10 minutes. What’s the purpose of condoms? A condom is used for protection after erection. Then if someone has an erection problem, how they will use a condom (CSD500)? So, I can’t find out any potentiality of this product.
Risk of MED2005 commercialization:
According to house broker Liberum, the chance of failure to commercialized MED2005 is one in twenty. So, the failure chance to commercialize is 5%. In their latest update, they repeated their recommendation buy with a 60p target price before Ph3 readout data. After a successful result, the price target is 137p.
Liberum also pointed out that the risk of Ph3 trial in the case of MED2005 is not a traditional Ph3 trial and the outcome is not considered as binary. Moreover, the safety and efficacy of GTN is already established in the market. MED2005 has the potential to become the leader of the multi-billion dollar ED market. So, for me, there is no question of positive Ph3 results but how great the result is.
It is also very clear that FUM management has learned lesson from their previous mistakes. They are fully on track of their commitment to publishing the readout data before the end of 2019.
martinelwick, Directors buying before any serious event gives a very positive impression of that event. As a result market reaction is usually very positive after Directors buying. I do consider Mrs Henry James Barder(Mrs Barder) transferring shares to ISA to avoid CGT and WT Lamb (father-in-law of Mr Barder) buying 1M shares just before Ph3 readout data is Directors buying. Very impressive indications.
That's right Jet7. Ken is a respectable person in R&D sector who spent most of his life one of the most successful pharmaceuticals in the world Glaxo Smith(gsk). With higher doses, it should cover the moderate group if not the severe. Anyway, none of the medicine works for the severe group. It could be wildfire even if it covers mild to the moderate groups.
Ph2
MED2005 potentiality:
MED2005 with 0.6mg (0.2%) GTN dose shows significant improvement in the ph2 study for the mild group with p-value less than 0.0001. Ph3 study with higher doses contains 0.2%, 0.4% and 0.6% of GTN. I believe there is a greater chance to be a success in mild to moderate cases with higher efficacy considering the onset of action and duration. If it’s efficacy close to Viagra (75%), it will be wildfire which also comes from Professor Hellstorm comment who works on a treatment for erectile dysfunction.
Valuation of Fum:
In the case of PH3 success (where all the indication indicates yes), it will be far higher than now. The better read out data will be the greater share price. The present market cap is already priced in FUTURA management’s past poor performance. If the company would be listed in the USA, before PH3 readout data, the market cap could be a few times higher. I believe the market cap will be USD 250 million-plus after successful PH3 data.
Ph1
ED market potentiality:
• ED drug market is growing 6.5% per annum with almost USD 3 billion by 2023 (Market Research Future report) where Viagra holds almost 40% of market value. The biggest market share is in the USA (55%) and then Europe.
• Almost 50% of men suffering from ED in age between 40-70 years.
• Another big percentage (almost 26% found in the study) below 40 years also suffering from mild to moderate ED problems.
• Young people feel embarrassed to discuss with GP but happy to buy drug through online or over the counter.
Risk factors of Viagra and other PDE5 inhibitors are:
• Viagra side effects such as headache, flushing, abnormal vision, back pain, muscle pain, hearing loss ……… are well established.
• There is a severe risk using Viagra or PDE5 inhibitors with patients having hypertension, blood pressure, vision problem, kidney problem …………etc
(Ref: https://www.viagra.com/learning/what-are-possible-side-effects)
Effectively patent protection until 2038. it is ridiculous by saying there will not be any patent life left after being commercialized.
GTN efficacy is already established. If it works, it should give higher efficacy with a higher dose. Ultimately, the placebo effects should be much lower than the ph2 trial.
If everything is on track (all the information yet indicates positiveness), I will be with 'FabPhil' using social media as a life style drug that could make a dynamic response. Of course it will take another 3 years to become OTC level.
RNS saying LO sold those on 6th. So, shares were flooded from the day before. That does mean, yesterday's one was buying not sell and even after a huge buy yesterday, price didn't move because of the LO action day before.
The company on the way (I will say the quickest way than usual) to start earning revenue and it's huge compared to the present market cap. It seems to me management doing extremely brilliant to raise the necessary fund. Everyone needs to understand that it's an oil exploring company. So, to explore, you have to invest a tiny amount first for a huge return.
Do they have any other means to raise fund better way? No, they don't have. Because they already on the process of £100m S.loan for the next steps. The management is trying their best not to dilute share other than the unavoidable one.
BBN, I will slightly disagree with you when you say it's a long term investment. I will add it as a medium to long term investment. But definitely not for invetor/trader for who expect short term huge gain.
The biggest (almost 55%) ED drug market in the USA. So, if the pha3 study shows good efficacy what everyone expects here, it's not Takeda, the offer should come from USA company. I believe, FUM management also working on that.
Spiderman183, you are asking the same question again and again. After getting a reply from DARINGINVESTOR on 4th of July, the last sentence of your post was ''We know why it fell, so what news (if any) has given rise to this HUGE increase??''
You also thanked to THOMASBROWNE previously for replying the same type of questions which were very informative and analytical.
Just read your previous post and reply from others to get the answer of your same questions.
In the market, normally the negativity against a potential company or a product spread by Patsies paid by the huge fund when the fund short on this company.
Commonsense saying, if you are not invested in this company then why to spend a lot of time on the board to spread negativity. Either you are so stupid or you have evil intentions. Stupids normally stay a shorter period of time. So, might be the 2nd group actively involved here.
BBN, You are so great! All of your hard work, meticulous analysis you shared with everyone. You even reply and explain your position to the people who don't have understanding power or just with irritating intention. You have huge patience. people are very lucky to get such a person like you with depth knowledge and analytical skills in the board. Well done BBN.
It looks like fools are already out from here. If you sell your share depending on some desperate de-rampers (losers) comment without your own research, I think you are not the right person to invest in the market.
I am following the board for a long time. Out of these three, one(Zkops) is extremely abusive, indecent and engaged on purpose (for own mission); which are a violation of LSE terms. Everyone should complain to the admin against this person.