George Frangeskides, Chairman at ALBA, explains why the Pilbara Lithium option ‘was too good to miss’. Watch the video here.
Ok Brucie Boy, we’ve got you down to circa 50% free float, so let’s try and get you the rest of the way. Let’s try Liontrust 15.3%; Herald 12.8%; Odey 12.4%; Ray Anderson 9.3%; Anil Malhistra 5.7%: Cavendish 4.7%; Hargreaves Hale 4.2%; Inflection 3.9%; Hargreaves Landsdown 3.3%; Hargreaves Landsdown 3.48 %. Circa 75%. “Fought you’d know that Brucie eh, eh ?” Try market screener for up to date info!
Not sure what you mean by “free float”. Just checked major shareholders - company 75% owned by 2 company directors and Institutions and I’m sure last time I looked this was only 70%. It looks to me that PI ownership is diminishing and is now quite small.
Yeh, Wow! But there could be much more to come! Was looking at chart for 2017 when the share price quadrupled in seven months (Jan 67.5p - July 266p). When this stock is hot it flies and investors are just beginning to smell the coffee in terms of it's potential.
In all the excitement of the last few days following the update, could it be that a little gem has fallen under the radar? Disney Plus, a potential massive rival to Netflix, is going live in the USA on 12th November, and later to Canada, Europe and many other parts of the world.
Pensioner drew our attention to the possibilities a couple of weeks ago, but since then Finncap has made reference to a major new global agreement:
"and further agreements with major streaming media players, including a major new global merchant agreement signed in the first half."
And in his latest Investor Video Release (see Troajan below), Ray refers to a major new merchant he can talk about later in H2.
Evidence is circumstantial, of course, but it's an exciting prospect with huge potential.
That's interesting pensioner but at what point do we expect the market to recognise this value and see it reflected in the share price? ST's comments seem to suggest a more than doubling of the share price is already justifiable. Could it be that Finncap's valuation will provide the stimulus, or perhaps the 6 monthly results on the 17th September? All speculation of course, but I'm interested to see if anybody has a more informed view than mine.
What is Bango worth right now, apart from the obvious answer, "what investors are prepared to pay for it". It's been suggested on this board on more than one occasion that around £1.50 might be a target for this year, but I'm not too clear where that figure has come from. There are a couple of "expert" views out there that have caught my attention recently, and I find them both interesting and exciting. The first is from Simply Wall Street which values Bango at £3.87 based on future cash flows: https://simplywall.st/stocks/gb/software/aim-bgo/bango-shares. The second is from Simon Thompson, who values Bango at more than twice current levels, again based on future cash flows:
"And that’s simply not being priced into the company’s enterprise valuation of £60m. If Bango can maintain the current EUS run-rate then it will be generating in excess of £2bn of EUS in 2020. Moreover, with a stable cost base and a stable revenue margin, operating profits should soar and warrant a target market capitalisation more than double the current level."
In both cases, I am not entirely clear if those valuations apply now or sometime in the future. We're still waiting for Finncap's valuation and that should provide greater clarity.
Personally I am expecting the share price to at least double by March 2020, or earlier. That's because Bango will have declared by then the 2019 results, and will have confirmed forecast for 2020 of EUS in excess of 2billion. Bango has reached a very exciting stage where its about to capitalise on its very clever platform where it can massively scale up without additional costs. The market is just waking up to the fact following a very positive update last week.
Will be interesting to see where this rally is heading. I'm thinking it will test previous high in March (130p), but if it were to break through that we could see market begin to price in "enterprise value", as Simon Thompson calls it. I should add this is pure speculation on my part - I am no authority on these matters.
Not sure if anybody's read Simon Thompson's report on the update, see following:
https://markets.investorschronicle.co.uk/data/equities/tearsheet/summary?s=BGO:LSE
It makes absolutely clear that still on target for additional £700m EUS at a margin of around 0.94%. Also forecasts more than £2b EUS for 2020. Hugely positive about company. Targets market capitalisation more than double present time.
Thanks for that Shareaction, but the reason Cenkos was so far out with it's figures was that it forecast only an additional £3.6m of transactional revenue on the £700m of additional EUS forecast for 2019. In my book they were allowing only a 0.51% margin on these transactions.
Ray Anderson is saying that the actual figure will be closer to last year's 0.94% and in March he confirmed that trading so far this year was operating at around this rate - so there is no reason to think this is not happening.
The net result of these differences is that Bango is forecasting circa a whopping £3m more in revenue than Cenkos was doing, and that is a serious discrepancy.
Whether you call this profit or whether you take the additional £3m and invest it in the future prosperity of the business is equally good because the company is building even stronger for the future. And, of course, all this additional revenue significantly reduces the risk of running out of cash.
The two important figures with regard to EUS are that we are on target to generate the additional £700m, and the margin for those revenues close to last year's 0.94%. If these forecast numbers are shown to be on target with the update, Cenkos will have made a big mistake, compounded by the fact they would not listen to the company!
I thought it might be fun to speculate as to why Cenkos had to go, and throw some figures around regarding profits.
Cenkos had forecast a miserly profit of £200,000 for 2019 despite interventions by Bango. This figure was based on generating £3.6m of transactional revenue from the forecast £700m of additional EUS for the year, which to my reckoning affords a margin of 0.51%. In the March addition of IC, Ray Anderson made it very clear that he expected a margin very close to last year's (0.94%) from "at least" £700 of additional EUS, which by my reckoning would generate circa £6.6m additional transactional revenue. The difference between Cenkos' and Anderson's profit forecast is a whopping £3m, all of which should fall straight to the bottom line on a stable cost base and tax exemptions. If there is any truth in this supposition Cenkos' position was unacceptable as the confusion was unsettling the market. Speculating further, it is interesting that Anderson used the phrase "at least" £700 additional EUS leaving the door open for further profits, and of course we don't know at this stage how much the data business will contribute to the bottom line. As the company has not issued any corrections to the March statement, it would seem fair to assume that Bango will at least meet expectations and, that alone, would be fantastic news. Would be very interesting to hear views of others, and other interpretations of the figures.
Let's be honest here Cenkos had to go - they weren't just useless, they were dangerous! This move couldn't have come soon enough for my liking.
What Bango has got going for it is a loyal group of PIs that have bought into and believe in the model. Reading through the comments here, we also trust Ray and his team - we're getting a positive vibe and we think this will be repaid when we receive update in the next week or two. I don't think he'll let us down.
Call me optimistic but the scenario I see unfolding shortly will start with an exciting set of results, followed by a very positive note from Finncap, and followed by Simon Thompson jumping on board, if only because he has covered this stock at every juncture during the last couple of years and he will want to be part of its change in fortunes. The SP will follow!
Agreed. Bango is far too cheap given the company’s projected numbers for this year. All we need is confirmation that those numbers are reality and I believe we’ll see a big bounce. I’m taking last week’s high volume buys and Ray’s “endorsement” as a very positive sign. Bring on the update which technically speaking could come any day now, though I note it happened in the middle of the month last year. Are there any protocols which determine the date or is it a random decision made by the company?
My feeling is Ray was signalling there is some significant news on the way, very soon - it has to be with the update. Just meeting market expectations would bring a big leap into profit, and we’re all very confident it’s going to at least do that. I recall one of ST’s articles in March suggested meeting the figures we have discussed on this board in the last week or so could increase the SP 100% +. That remains to be seen but Ray’s endorsement this week was not coincidental. All that remains now is the timing of the update which has already been confirmed for July, but do we have any information as th when?
i agree the most likely reason is he's indicating cheapness of shares. All the evidence we've had suggests Bango is going to meet market expectations and take a big leap into profitability - price will follow.
Assuming Bango hits its target of an additional £700m EUS in 2019 (.94% margin), it will be interesting to see how it impacts profitability. We're told that the cost of processing extra payments remains stable, and, if I remember correctly, early profits will not be taxed as they will be written against previous year's losses. Admin costs increased 15% last year but even if they do so again, the vast majority of new revenue should drop through to the bottom line, thereby bringing a huge leap into profitability. For 2020 another big leap in EUS is forecast! Is Bango finally fulfilling its potential? As we've said earlier, the update will give us a big clue. As for Libra, Bango seem unconcerned - in the years ahead, if it comes on stream, they appear ready to embrace it.
I wont pretend to fully understand the concept at the moment but Bango certainly appears to be onboard the Libra project, intending to participate fully. Just last week they released a press statement on the subject:
https://bangoinvestor.com/2019/06/18/bango-alternative-payments-and-project-libra/ It may be worth contacting Bango for some elaboration on their plans for Libra going forward.
I'm interested in the EUS split you talked about - H1 40%, H2 60%. Presumably your £450-500m target figure for H1 2019 is based on H1 2018 added to potential HI 2019 (40% x 700m)?? As far as margins are concerned, Ray confirmed in an email to me that the target margin is an average .94% so I am assuming that number can roughly be applied to forecasts.
There are lots of good omens here: Bango EBITDA positive in Q4 2018; strong trading reported for first ten weeks of 2019; very bullish forecast released by the company through IC in March indicating a big turn around in profitability during course of 2019 (an additional £700m in EUS growth for 2019 at an average .94% margin, with little or no significant extra costs); the data side of business reportedly doing well; no news releases suggesting anything to contradict above. It's difficult not to be positive!
Bring on the update!
This is about to take off in my view - probably following July update which has been confirmed by company. The last serious piece of coverage was in March when Ray Anderson released a statement through Simon Thompson, IC. Basically it forecast for this year an additional £700m in EUS growth for 2019 at an average .94% margin, with little or no significant extra cost (ie: all dropping through to bottom line). Cynics may suggest this is rubbish but the fact is neither the CEO of an AIM listed company or ST would deliberately want to mislead the market because the benefits of doing so would be miniscually short term - their reputations are far more important. I haven't heard otherwise so I am assuming we're still on track and progress towards these numbers will inevitably be confirmed in July's update. Those of us invested in Bango realise its massive potential but confidence is low following an 18 month downtrend in the share price. Once confidence has returned we will see the reversal of that trend and it could come as early as next month, depending on the update.
Just to add to the mood of optimism here - I've been in touch with the company the last few days. In particular, I wanted to know if the quoted margins of circa .94% of the additional £700m EUS spend for 2019 would drop through to the bottom line. The reply from Ray was that it would all drop through and, if anything, costs might reduce a little. This looks to me like being the year when Bango should seriously break through. Based on these figures, we have to be looking circa £4.5m profit for the year, with the potential for more depending on what deals are done. A company like Bango cannot put out this kind of information without there being substance to it so I am very confident that we will enjoy a good 2019.
I don’t think we need worry about the likes of Amazon wanting to recreate the Bango platform - the margins for them are far too small to make it worth their while. Similarly the Bango platform is far more sophisticated than that of its rivals and companies have been migrating across, and its a huge market out there with Bango getting more than its share. All the ducks are lined up for Bango to have another great year. The SP is always a roller coaster with this company because of its poor liquidity - big movements in either direction but at these prices the company is looking very attractive for investors wanting to get in.