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Analysts are divided on the impact of new banking regulations on the gold market. Many expect an increase in demand for allocated gold (that is, physical ingots in bank vaults) at the expense of unallocated gold. Some people go a step further and assume that some bullion banks might simply back out of this business, with the consequence that there will be a forced reduction in huge short hedging positions on New York's Comex. If that were to happen, gold prices could be expected to rise significantly in the coming months.
For this reason, Carrasco says, the price of an ounce of gold will rise to at least $ 2,100 per troy ounce by the end of the year, which would break the all-time all-time record of August 2020 ($ 2,077 / oz). The upward move may not appear until the end of the year, as the largest share of unallocated gold is traded in London, where Basel III will not come into effect until January 1, 2022.
However, not everyone is convinced that the 'third Basel' will trigger a 'short squeeze' at Comex, pushing the prices of royal metal to new records. According to Ross Norman of Metals Dayli, the new regulations will primarily contribute to a significant increase in the costs of trading in “paper gold”, which will consequently lead to a decrease in liquidity and make it difficult for large institutional investors to enter the market and increase the costs of purchasing physical metal for individual customers. As a result, gold as an asset class may become marginalized and its role in the financial system will be even smaller than it is today.
It is worth being aware that fundamental changes in the way gold is traded on the financial market will take place at a time of increased inflation and deeply negative real interest rates. In such an environment, gold can be a highly desirable asset, which, however, has not been confirmed by reality for several months. If, however, post-Covid inflation, contrary to central bankers' declarations, turns out to be a permanent phenomenon, then the late autumn on the gold market may turn out to be very interesting.
Risks to consider in BT shares
The telecom industry is facing a lot of challenges due to the rapid technological changes. It also involves a lot of capital investments for building up new infrastructures. BT is also facing competition from new players who are giving better offers to grab market share.
In spite of all the challenges, I would like to buy BT shares in the next few months, as the company is still a market leader in telecom in the UK and is one of the beneficiaries of the 5G services. It is a large-cap company and lastly, the shares are available at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.25, which I consider is a value buy. Friday, 5th February, 2021 | Royston Roche
very good -2%
The Company's FY2020 gold equivalent ("GE") output amounted to 1,559 Koz, a 4% increase y-o-y and 4% above the original production guidance of 1.5 Moz. Strong contribution from Kyzyl, Varvara and Albazino offset planned grade declines at Svetloye and Voro. Q4 GE production was roughly stable y-o-y and stood at 358 Koz.
Revenue in 2020 jumped by 28% to reach US$ 2.9 billion while Q4 revenue was up 31% y-o-y to US$ 0.8 billion on the back of higher gold sales and higher metal prices. The lag between gold production and sales has been closed.
The Company expects full-year Total Cash Costs ("TCC") to be below the original guidance of US$ 650-700/GE oz. Sharp devaluation of domestic currencies (RUR and KZT) outweighed additional COVID-related costs and price-driven increase in royalties. All-in Sustaining Cash Costs ("AISC") are expected to be within the guidance range of US$ 850-900/GE oz as the Company has accelerated pre-stripping and mine fleet renewals against the backdrop of higher commodity prices.
Polymetal generated strong quarterly free cash flow resulting in Net Debt reduction to US$ 1.35 billion as at the end of 2020, Net Debt/EBITDA is expected to be below 1x. For the full year, Net Debt decreased by US$ 128 million and the Company paid US$ 480 million of dividends implying record annual FCF.
Polymetal International PLC Full Year Production Results 29 January , any suggestions?
Fleccy - However, the firm has over £27bn of long-term obligations to repay with interest. If 5G fails to attract enough new customers, then I fear that BT will continue its downward trend to insolvency.
For that reason, it seems more like a gamble rather than an investment
Barclays' top shopping list includes the oil giant BP (LON: BP) PLC, for which the bank expects its share price to rise by 63.7%, followed by Dutch bank ABN AMRO (AS: ABNd) Group NV, whose share price is expected to rise by 50.6%, and British telecommunications company BT Group (LON: BT) PLC, for which the bank expects its share price to rise by 47.2%, according to the bank.
On the other hand, Barclays expects Lufthansa to decline sharply by -46.1%, the Dutch payment company Adyen NV by -34.1% and the UK online supermarket Ocado Group PLC by -30.5%.
Finally, it should be noted that Barclays admitted that the short-term outlook remains uncertain as vaccine distribution and the long-term social impact of the pandemic are still unknown, and the recent market recovery has left less margin for positive surprises.
https://www.investegate.co.uk/fresnillo-plc--fres-/rns/half-year-report/201907300700151150H/
23 JULY 2019 • 5:55 AM
Questor share tip: the mining firm has disappointed in the past but profit forecasts are rising and the balance sheet is sound
Having made a total hash of Avesoro Resources, the West African gold producer we tipped in May last year and sold last month at a 77pc loss, this column returns with some trepidation to Centamin and its Egyptian Sukari mine.
The good news, however, is that after three downgrades to its production guidance for 2018 the FTSE 250 company is sticking to its predicted numbers for 2019 in the wake of last week’s second-quarter trading update in term of both production and costs.
This is enough to keep Questor more than interested, especially as gold is doing exactly what we thought it would as it holds firm near $1,420.
After ending 2018 with production of 484,322 ounces of gold (below its initial goal of 560,000), Centamin continues to target between 490,000 and 520,000 ounces this year. That increase in output provides welcome exposure to the rising gold price.
Better still, the firm is still on track to keep its “all-in sustaining cost” in the region of $890-$950 an ounce, compared with $884 in 2018. That combination – of production up, only modest rises in costs, gold price up – is about as good as it gets, and forecasts for both earnings and the dividend continue to creep higher.
Meanwhile, a balance sheet with around $300m (£240m) in cash and no debt provides some welcome protection should there be any further missteps, as does the decent dividend yield.
Centamin could yet encounter production problems, so it is too early to get carried away. Gold prices could also remain volatile. Yet when hedge fund legend (and billionaire) Paul Tudor Jones publicly declares that gold “has everything going for it”, perhaps we should all take heed.
Read Questor’s rules of investment before you follow our tips
Gold has finally broken through the $1,350-$1,360 price level that had capped its advances for the best part of five years and it has already moved smartly above $1,400.
If the global economy really does start to slow and central banks respond with rate cuts (as per the current plans of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank) or more quantitative easing, that could be a good environment for the precious metal, at least if history is any guide.
Gold zipped from around $650 to $1,900 an ounce between 2007 and 2011 as the Fed cut interest rates and launched QE in response to a deep recession and the financial crisis.
Further dollops of unorthodox monetary policy could conceivably prompt more gains for gold and, if Centamin can hold its all-in cost at around the $920 midpoint of its target range, profit margins would rise sharply. They are already close to $500 an ounce.
Gold miners are risky stocks but everything could just be falling into place for Centamin. Still worth a punt
From a technical point of view, the gold exchange rate is consolidating from June 25 in a zone limited from the top by peaks near the level of USD 1,377 and from the bottom by wells near the level of USD 1382. As we can see, the range of fluctuations is getting smaller and the chart has taken the classic form of a flag. According to the technical analysis, this formation promises to continue the movement in the original direction, ie breaking the course up. The declining turnover is also indicated by the decreasing volume of turnover for gold contracts quoted on the American COMEX exchange. And the range of movement after breaking the flag from the formation should be at least equal to the size of the traffic to reach it, which means that the gold can reach a level of up to $ 1,550. However, in the case of prolonged consolidation, the top can take the supply side and attempt to attack on its part of the level of 1375 dollars.
The technical situation on the silver chart is much more interesting in recent days than on the gold market. Despite the pressure from the strong dollar, silver prices are growing dynamically this week. Today in the morning they move around USD 15.60 per ounce, which is at the highest level for over four months. It is worth noting that silver has exceeded the level of USD 15.50 per ounce, which until now was an important barrier to the demand side.
Optimism on the silver market is due to the fact that this metal is largely treated as industrial metal. From a fundamental point of view, any data that positively affects the expectations of the global economic climate favor any increase in silver prices.
Nevertheless, it is worth remembering that silver prices generally show a large correlation with gold prices. Although in the short-term the prices of both ores are able to move in other directions, medium- and long-term trends are practically the same in these markets.