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#RBD. After the recent success of B1Z, I think we can assume that barrels of oil will increase from previous estimates. So, let’s say 300mb at #WestNewton (which might be conservative)
300mb @ 56% = 168mb
168mb @ 30% recovery = 50.4mb
50.4mb @$60 = $3.024b (WN direct/indirect value to RBD)
#RBD current value $71m
Need to factor ops/capex costs, but this is incredible
Dan is rarely wrong, looks like it's a placing - I was wrong. The only way DB can redeem himself here is if it's for an acquisition of urgent importance and adds significant immediate value to UJO. If not, he's killed all momentum and lost a lot of loyal supporters.
Agree. DB is not a worrier. If he knows it's going to be good, he knows (and all his interviews lead to this). Placing would be a shocking move now.
The downturn started on 18 August. You would normally release that sort of RNS on a violent daily movement. If an s/p slides over c.20 days, it shouldn't force an RNS statement.
Yes, SlackSid, exactly.
My hope is that DB is taking the approach - I'm not bringing out an RNS every time the s/p drops, not setting that precedent.
Can anyone remember a time when he has released an RNS to this effect?
Yep, but those were at down times. Timing now is so so so bad. DB is experienced in this industry - I just don't see it.
Completely agree, gkb. Placing now would be suicidal and DB has continually stated that we're fully funded.
Seconded
Hi Hasiba
Personally, I'm waiting to see if the price falls further as, a) KSA flood the market (as expected); b) KRG fails to make payment; c) Board do not issue the divi; and/or d) KRG decide to delay BB due to current climate.
At some point, the price will come back, either through the collapse of shale or OPEC+ coming back to the table. I can ride it out and will only strike again if the share price suffers another dramatic drop.
At current prices, I would rather invest in RRE or UJO. Any profits from those two will be put into GENL (if we see anything under 80p).
Just my opinion before anyone gets too excited.
It would be catastrophic for the company if the dividend wasn't paid out. They have the cash and I expect they'll pay out the same sum as last year.
My main hope (worry), however, is that the KRG have paid-up outstanding fees.
Very odd that it has stopped, Boyo. Given the price is situated is at a level the Board perceive to be “significantly undervalued”, I find this very unusual.
The optimist in me would suggest that they have impending ‘positive’ news and it would be inappropriate to buy stock at this level knowing that positive news will strike soon. Maybe BB news?
I’m guessing (in a big way) before anyone gets carried away. I find it hard to explain the Buy Back suspension. No RNS either to say that it’s been temporarily suspended.
The American “like US shale but we make money” roadshow has worked wonders. Higgs and Co. should have stayed in the UK and saved on the biz class flights. The trading numbers are atrocious.
When you look at the fundamentals, it’s difficult to find a better company out there. However, no matter how much money we make, the share price keeps sliding (or is stale). Higgs is trying everything: roadshows, director share acquisitions, company buy-backs, dividends, company Q&As, and various Malcy/investor interviews. Nothing is working. The Chevron deal was outstanding, but there’s no interest.
Strongly believe that they’ll continue with the buy-backs after results. The most disappointing aspect, in my opinion, and what heavily hampers the share price movement, is the lack of progress with BB. Delay after delay – the accounting write down of Miran (although a good business move) has not helped sentiment.
I still believe in BB, but the company needs to get moving. Quite appalling (even for Kurdistan) that the commercials are still not closed.
I have always said that I’ll stay until end of 2020, and I’m committed to that (the cash pot by then will be something that can’t avoided). Luckily, for the moment, I’ve been having some fun with UJO – taken away the dullness of this share.