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Nice post Tom. I think that in the short term the RFP is massive and will give investors the confidence that CBM really is part of the mix. I believe that if the Bots govt do not support Tlou through award of the RFP then exporting outside of Bots will be a a massive challenge....why would they export their energy when they so badly need it in house? Yes we hv other routes to market (local mines, projects etc) but this would not produce the kind of returns on the SP if the govt really backed us, and this will only be achieved through a positive RFP result
Chats my research has identified this as a good opportunity and that’s why I have invested in Tlou. Although I am less confident than before the RFP cancellation I still feel that Tlou are well placed to deliver energy into a market where there is obviously a deficit. Issue I hv is that the lack of news on the retender understandably creates uncertainty and this is clearly demonstrated by the level the share price has been at since Feb. I will continue to hold a large chunk of shares as I believe tht if this does come together the share price will be many many multiples of where we are now. But I will be reducing my holding to invest elsewhere as i hv probably over exposed myself. As I stated in my previous post the coming weeks will determine where Tlou are heading....let’s hope GG and TG are doing their best to get things moving (which I fully expect they are). GL all investors and me!
So Eric Molale named as the new Minister for minerals and energy department. Let’s hope he gets things moving....the fact there has been a change suggests to me the new president wants to press ahead with getting energy plans moving. I think the next 6 weeks will define where Tlou goes...its the time to top up if u think CBM will be part of he mix cz price is ridiculously low right now. However this “ridiculously” low price could turn out to be way over valued if the new minister has other energy plans. Nervous times ahead and still no sign of any concrete updates from the board. I have always held the board in high esteem but since the tender cancellation it has bn a poor show from them. I for one will be looking very closely at what happens here and will decide whether to take my c20% profit i currently have on what (to me) is a considerable holding.
I read that ministerial positions will be changing and they will be announced tomorrow. In reality I would imagine very little change as this is a smooth transition of power but Masisi would be looking to make his mark over the next 12 months before the presidential elections. Masisi focused alot on the SEZ and diversification from diamonds in his first speech as president and so all bodes well for Tlou. When this diversification will happen is the question rather than if in my opinion.
Olda yes I agree that the next RNS should give details on the Re-tender and/or details of an offtake agreement. However putting a timescale on this is difficult; it’s had been nearly 2 months since the original tender was cancelled and there has bn very little news flow around what is going on here. Also there have bn posts from Tidd citing a conversation with Colm which suggests offtake(s) are in the pipeline but again nothing concrete. This is Africa and things take time, but tlou themselves are not doing much to keep investors interested/updated with how things are progressing. Shame bcz I firmly believe that things will come good for Tlou one day but not all investors are in it for the long haul unlike myself.
To be fair all seems to be lined up nicely here. Govt approval through the RFP is the final hurdle.....I know many people have said it’s all about the reserves and yes I agree that reserve numbers will have a huge impact on the share price, but what has become blatantly clear is that the market want confirmation that Botswana want CBM (and Tlou)and this will only be achieved thru a positive result for the firm from the RFP. Patience is required and all should come good. Problem is however that not every investor has time on their hands and with so little information from the board on what they are up to, many investors are putting their money elsewhere.
I wouldn’t expect so bythesea....the transition of govt appears to be a very smooth process in Bots and from the research that I have done it would appear to me that nothing much will change. Plus we have our outgoing president owning Tlou shares and the local MPs are supportive of our plans....just a matter of time in my opinion but as you say fingers crossed🤞
Also have there been anymore updates about the retendered RFP process released yet?? I knw there was some information in the RNS’s released when the original tender was cancelled but haven’t seen anything else apart from some information in a couple of interviews.
Hi Tidd and thanks for the response. I only just invested in the firm and following message boards here as well as ADVFN. I have come across some idiot called Donkey who is forever slamming the company and you. Who is this clown?? He appears to give a one sided view...some valid points but generally utter rubbish. To me all the rubbish he talks about is brought about due to lack of clear information from the firm....do u or anyone else knw if tlou hv any investor type events planned? I hv friends sitting on the margins here but are looking for more direct feeds from the company to give them some more certainty before investing.
I’d predict RFP re-tender results to be in around August. Between now and then i’d expect announcements on offtake agreements to get the share price ticking back towards all time highs. However as the previous debacle has shown, tlou need a large chunk of the RFP to get the market to believe that Bots support CBM. I can’t see any reason why they wouldn’t and I keep going bak to the fact that 6% is owned by the pension fund; this reassures me that it is unlikely the govt will screw their own people....it just doesn’t work like that in Africa. Things take time in africa but this will come good.
Yes seen that interview and does provide some reassurances. Tidd also posted an interesting meeting he had with Colm which provided further reassurances but we need some concrete information from the firm through an RNS to reassure the market that CBM really is part of the Bots Govt energy mix.
Totally agree Olda. It’s been over 6 weeks since the RFP delay was announced and the firm haven’t done too much to reassure investors on the direction of travel. A positive RNS is required to get things back on track as otherwise the share price will drift and the firm will begin to look less and less attractive to new investors. There’s a great story brewing here, however the change in govt and introduction of new regulator just adds to the bureaucracy and goes somewhat to explaining the protracted timescales. Or this could be just another dud mining play to add to the list....time will tell if this is true but with the Bots Pension Fund owning 6% of shares, the energy shortage in Southern Africa and the shed load of gas we have in the ground (amongst other things) makes me think that a patient investor will reap substantial rewards. Good luck all
Nice update and thanks for sharing. Upside here is massive and I’m sure the market will realise that soon enough. Fair value imho is 20p+ so a lot value to be had. However I do think that information like this would be better shared by the company directly (ie through webinar, investor call etc). Would have more impact and give more confidence to investors and the market. But I am looking forward to the RNS(s) that confirms what has been outlined, and the increase in SP that will no doubt follow.