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I think those big buys Friday were shorts closing. Sneaky feckers can put thru buys like that after close of trading without impacting SP much. It's not a level playing field. I hope they get majorly burned if any shorts left
I've been keeping an eye on twitter, Reddit and stocktwits. Theres lots of ramping but also what look like lots of excited new long term holders. Punters excited for 88e's future. If we get good news this is going to explode! It could be a perfect storm.
https://clients3.weblink.com.au/clients/_88energy/headline.aspx?headlineid=61010960
It was 50% of project peregrine for $10m towards cost of Merlin. Any costs over the 10m were to be borne 50/50. So APDC put up $11.3m initially and 88e $1.3m ( plus the overrun due to delays, which seems a lot to me given that further costs were supposed to be 50/50)
2-Cents from a Landman
This is a long post with nothing SPECIFIC to EEENF's Merlin Well. I have no knowledge of this specific company or well. Turn back now if that's what you're here for ;)
I've seen a lot of great posts here, and figured I'd chime in with my 2 cents as someone with some industry experience. I'm not a geologist, but I've evaluated and put together exploration programs in house with an independent operator for the last 15 or so years. I'm not here to rain on anyone's parade, but hopefully buoy and balance the hope with some of my own personal experience with O&G exploration in the lower 48 states.
The amount of money and expertise AND MONEY it takes to obtain a lease on federal land (I assume this is a federal lease) is huge. The costs associated with even the most basic drilling operations would boggle your mind and it's always amazing to me that any of this ever works. But the road to becoming wealthy in O&G is littered with the corpses of the greedy, unlucky and bankrupt. Even working interest owners in successful projects can find themselves struggling to keep up with the bills from a producing well.
Getting to the point of putting a drill bit in the ground takes a TON of work. Even among the companies involved, the selection of the prospect location takes what feels like several court cases laid out by geophysicists, geologists, landmen etc., who are often in the business of debating each others scientific theories as to where and why the oil is or isn't in a specific spot. The science is amazing, and being in a room with these brilliant folks is humbling. But even they don't really know if the oil is there.
The only way to know for sure is to spend millions of dollars to drill into the absolute A-1 prospect identified by the seismic data. You are all right to be excited because even getting to this point is akin to winning the lotto. The majority of projects and prospects are never drilled. We've passed on very good looking seismic for a number of reasons. The leases are unattainable or the economics don't work even if the well is a "sure-thing"...
That said, the technology has improved. The principles of hydro-dynamics and petroleum engineering are just basic physics. A million things can go wrong on a well, but the success rate has drastically improved due to 3D seismic and completion techniques. We use numbers like 65-75% success based on 3D seismic in proximity to analogous geology. Even better when you're looking across the road at a producing well or two.
Ultimately, this is far more interesting to me as an investment opportunity as we get a super-cheap buy-in with none of the associated risk. The degree to which this is diluted by NRI, Royalties, and all of the associated unknowns are worth the risk of throwing a couple thousand at a hope for what might be at worst an artificial spike based on internet hype, and at best an awesome chance to rake in some real dough from a successful well!
TLDR, G
Merlin is hopefully analogous to willow not Talitha.
https://vimeo.com/301432243
https://www.reddit.com/r/pennystocks/comments/m5k4oc/eeenf_dd_part_3_the_ticking_timebomb_for_short/
https://www.slb.com/resource-library/oilfield-review/defining-series/defining-mud-logging