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Hahahaha
Boohoo achieved 32% in q1 despite poor performance in ROW and ROE.
Last time I looked Shein was also around in both the U.K. and US last quarter,
, and they still grew revenues 32%
What on earth does this mean?-" I have clearly dug out data from ONS which suggests UK value of online sales in the Q2 was less than 5% vs last year"
Just to clarify, Kallu has said twice I've made predictions of or claiming 32%. I have not said that. There are a range of probable outcomes some more likely than others. I think Kallu suggesting 32% in the 1st quarter is going to turn into just +4% in the 2nd quarter is unlikely, and that a higher growth rate in line with guidance and the 1st quarter is much more likely.
It doesn't make sense Kallu.
It would be a massive fall off in growth, and anything that big would be some obvious deterioration of the fundermentals. What would cause such a dramatic fall off after the previous quarters results of +32%? I can't answer that, so unless I've personally missed something gigantic, it would also need to be unknown to the market, and what are the chances of that? Big impact issues do not stay unknown, boohoo doesn't trade in a vacuum either, so this thing would likely be impacting other firms. It would also be completely against what we know has been happening on the macro level, with the unwinding of household savings, high demand etc. There's been no trading update to advise the market somethings gone way wrong.
It's a prediction that goes against any kind of rationality.
Kallu, if you went to a school where people spouted drivel that went unchecked, it explains a lot. I think you need to put your big boy pants on.
When did grading a level of nonsense against another benchmark of nonsense become bullying. Have I missed something in the news or something. Is this now what constitutes bullying?
My apologies Kallu, youre right. We are at peak internet sales, and the markets are always efficient. Is that better?
You've almost topped Kallu with this drivel. Not quite, but close.
Why are you looking at the market price to decide what the value of the company is? Man alive. The market is there to serve you, not inform you. Let me guess, your one of these people who thinks reading tea leaves and chart patterns going to tell what a stock will do next week.
In The style reported this morning they are having issues with logistics and a lot of returns as people get back into occasion wear , but demand was seemingly healthy. E-commerce order value up 50% compared to the same period last year.
Obviously it's tiny compared to boohoo, so not indicative of much. Boohoo are obviously in a much better position regarding logistics, but I'm sure return rates have increased. Im not in the business of predicting next quarterly earnings, but I agree it wouldn't be a surprise to see numbers reflecting very healthy demand.
And for the record I've never said people will only shop online in the future. My comentary has been on the obvious trend towards online, and speculating about what this may look like in the future because it's a fun thing to think and speculate about. I think high end retail will always be in the high street, but for mass market sales the distribution and data benefits of online, is a superior business model, not to mention the fact that the biggest businesses in the world are invested in continuing to improve efficiency and technology in the area of distribution. I'm sure they will find ways for instance to lower return rates over time and make delivery even faster.
I accept boohoo has challenges, what business doesn't? It's you who for some very odd reason (and with a big dose of conformation bias and cognitive dissonance) want to talk about Primark like it's the perfect business, and has no other future other than being a massive success, yet its share price and sales have been in decline for 4 years. The future is not pre-written. There's a range of probable outcomes, but tho say online retail has peaked is positively delusional.
I thought you were like a joke account when I first read the nonsense your were posting, but evidently your just a nut case.
Kallu, what you know about analysing anything I could write on the back of a postage stamp.
If you want to bet me directly on whether we've seen "peak online penetration" or half the other nonsense you spout I'll happily take your money.
Small fluctuations in data over a 3 month period does not make an investment thesis.
You seem to miss the very obvious fact that Boohoo is very small vs the total addressable market. Both it and Shein have been taking share off incumbents for some time. The fact new these businesses are employing the business model they are, and positing massive growth rates, should tell anyone reading this what the reality is here. The traditional fashion business model has very little moat, which is why Shein and boo have been able to come in and do what they've done over the last few years. The fact is the likes of boohoo and possibly Shein (depending on what we find out ref esg with Shein) are ahead of the curve in the industry. Sure they are going to compete, but given the head room for both of them so what? You are surely not that much of a crank you think Primark is without competition?
There is a concern with Shein, but basically it's a combination of all these things you have mentioned . If you add that to the macro market jitters and sprinkle in the logistics issues, you can see why Boohoo is where it is.
There's simply too many speculators taking about short timeframes. It makes me laugh hearing about how a stock "hasnt performed for 9 months". The differences of opinion regarding the business on the board should be welcomed, but those trying to guess what the market will are best ignored.
Fair enough rag. It wasn't my intention, I didn't realise the beef ran that deep. Thought you'd just annoyed each other or whatever.
I've discounted Debenhams completely in my investment thesis. If it surprises great. I just happen to agree with Dan that PLT and boo will continue to be the main drivers of growth going forward.
It's pleasing to hear these debs brands might potentially have more value than I gave them credit for.
I'm not doing anyone's bidding, and I have no idea what the beef is about. I really don't care either. Nobody has been rude to me and I wouldn't be bothered if they were. He suggests you got the numbers wrong, so I gave you the choice to correct them if you wanted to.
Nobody is saying they won't back it. What is being said is that the 500 million is over 5 years and will likely be used on driving efficiency by further investment into distribution. This adds a lot of value and efficiency to debs so it is an investment into debs obviously, but more to the point it allows the core brands ( the ones creating the 500 million that will be spent) to further expand and cement their competitive advantage.
You're talking about investment specifically into debs brands. I'm sure these brands are ok, but they are not going to be doing boohoo or plt numbers, and they will also only receive a small amount of the 500 million being spent.
I've already explained why it's being bought, and it's not likely it was for the debs brands. Isn't it obvious that boo and plt etc will be the main focus? How much money is a 30% increase in boohoo's core business worth, surely you can see why that's a priority.This is basic capital allocation.
All I'm saying is the brands you've mentioned have very little equity in my decision to invest in boohoo. They are a tiny proportion of the business and will remain relatively small. Nobody is saying they are not good to have, just you seem to be comparing them to the core business and that's the bit I don't get.
Can you post the yougov link again rag. If Debs surprises on the upside it would be great, but I think investors are correctly discounting it until we see how it progresses.
Danl90 has said your right ref brand loyalty but some of the debs figures are wrong -
Danl90
RE: There’s some nonsenseToday 12:01
I do agree with rag re the size of the prize and brand loyalty of debenhams but that's not to say I agree that all of a sudden a few old dusty brands will be the money earner
The point of debenhams for boohoo (no order on these btw) is 1) beauty 2) market place and 3) a great shop window for all brands (to cover all demographics - which rag pointed out and I believe is correct)
Debenhams is a great for boohoo as you can get customers x-buying ie buy a jumper and add in make up. The cost to boohoo is the same as just sending the jumper but now there is a £50 bottle of smelly in there. That synergy gain is insane
The debenhams fashion brands might do ok but they won't out-do PLT and boo etc
But just FYI rag - the debs t/o number you quote is gross of market place (so you have to pull that out) and also includes international (which isn't around yet) so the total Debs revenue number is £2billion but again that got online in, selling third brands (wrangler etc - which was a lot bigger under debs), income from concession and also beauty
So it's not quite as you'ev made out that the debs brands are racing to £3billion as they haven't ever been there
Also re PLT. It was £500m a few years back. The group then grew by 40% (so assume PLT did it's bit) then that makes it £700m and since then the last update put the group at the same growth again (so assume PLT did it's bit) put it on a run-rate over £1billion
Always good to understand what you own. Just off on PLT by the 100% or so
Won't be that easy to balance either. Booho will be massive in 10 years if they pull it off, but balancing the investment required as to stay ahead of other people trying the same will be tough. I still can't see them spending massive amounts on debs in the next 2 or 3 years though
They now have a vehicle with brand equity to a broad demographic. A place for future beauty and fashion acquisitions to sit, and another outlet where all their brands can be marketed and pushed.
In addition to having 20 different brand specific websites, it's a bet on a shopping centre of the future, a place with a huge product range shoppers can browse. A sort of fashion and beauty Online department store that's well recognised and regarded as a fashion and beauty brand.
But this vision is not a 3 year vision, it's further out into the future.. For boohoo to slow down investment into boohoo and plt etc in favour of adding more investment into debs would be insane. The bigger they get, the harder they are to catch, so letting your foot off the accelerator is a really risky thing to do. The capex rightly will keep flowing into boohoo distribution which benefits all its brands, but the focus should squarely be cementing boo and plt etc as big players in the sector.
It would be great in 10 years if Debenhams is seen as THE place online for fashion and beauty, and boohoo owned many strong beauty and fashion brands, but we are some way off yet. The vision will be much bigger than peddling 2nd rate clothing brands though. This is why you invite other brands to come in, because it allows you to offer a broad selection of fashion and beauty products right off the bat with little investment, as to try keep the Debenhams brand equity alive whilst they work on the grand vision with the added benefit of applying your data anylitics to inform future acquisitions etc. If you don't do that Debenhams brand equity will go to the wall.