The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
See my tweet here for a breakdown of outstanding warrants and possible view on project finance
https://twitter.com/JimPrice83/status/1380549372421750790?s=19
A combination of debt equity mix. A significant number of warrants tied up with board members and associates so I'd imagine they'd exercise those as part of the equity element. CAPEX comes to around £28m. Perhaps 20% will be equity of which £2m in outstanding warrants which leaves approx £3.5m to be raised via share issuance. Assume a conservative share price of 8p, that's an additional 43.5m shares which is less than 10% dilution of the current float.
I have calculated the shares I believe Kabunga has sold since the last TR1. Of course, the assumption is that the large block sells are his. For those interested please refer to the following:
https://twitter.com/JimPrice83/status/1372494402262867970?s=20
I expect 10p on license news as it derisks the project and brings offtakes/project finance firmly into the picture. The license award has held up everything which may conveniently play into our favour as the graphite sector is red hot right now. Blackrock and Ecograph have secured attractive funding - investor appetite is the best it has been for years. Armadale should be excellently placed to secure attractive funding terms for our low CAPEX project. Plant built to production is 10-12 months so I expect investors will be all over us once the license award is confirmed. Q2 will start to price in the potential and the sky is the limit. GLA
Timelines for permit and license award are dictated by the mining authorities. Company will not know beforehand. As soon as they are awarded we will get an RNS. I am sure they are very close. We have been anticipating for sometime and there is no reason to believe they will not be forthcoming in the near term
I'm all for a balanced discussion but this board is a cesspit of negativity. In my experience this is often the precursor for a proper rerate especially when a company is debt free, with decent cash position and multiple opportunities for value inflexion. Nothing is ever nailed on in AIM but WSG looks to be in a very good place to appreciate as we transition to a post-covid world. The risk reward is attractive imv and when the market attention arrives here the deramping and negativity will drown out. Much of it is agenda driven but will soon be gone. Q2/3 will bring some optimisim and positivity once the SP breaks out of this range and back to double figures. Fingers crossed and GLA
It is also worth noting that £800k worth of warrants rest in the hands of two of the major shareholders, Kabunga and Matt Bull. Both are aligned with us and recognise that we are at a point of inflexion. A few major milestones are looming, especially the project finance and a higher share price is in everyone's interest. Should they require cash for whatever reason I'm sure they have enough firepower via warrants to suppor the company. I am also assured cash is not an issue and outgoings are absolutely minimal. In my view we will first hear about the permit, license and offtakes, then the fund raise will be tied up alongside the project finance. The graphite space is red hot right now, and our project economics are highly impressive. GLA
£200k+ raised via warrants in H2. Company has extremely lean running costs, they are good for cash from my recent Comms with the board. The priority is to get the mining license secured. Fingers crossed we hear on the permit soon then get the news flow we require. I envisage the next raise will come with the equity element of the debt finance but time will tell.
The second half was poor. You can read the Arden note and their estimated figures for 2020 give it away. That is why they raised cash to strengthen the balance sheet and whether the storm. 2021 will bring opportunity. It's just a case of patience now.
For what it's worth I followed up with Peter on the status of Saudi and Iran. His response was that Saudi is "very much alive" and he did not rule out Iran. They are monitoring the geopolitical situation and remain in touch with key entities. A comprehensive trading update wouldn't go amiss. I guess we hold and wait to see things unfold this year.
I understand the panic but let's give it some perspective. Global markets getting hit. FTSE and AIM Indices down 2%. It's a breather, we had it in November and it created panic. MMs are walking stocks down on no volume which is no reflection on anything suspicious here. Significant chunks of the float were traded 9p+ only a week ago. When the macro tide changes we will bounce hard. I am looking to take advantage of the drop and obviously want to get as low as I can. 7.5p offer sounds enticing imv.
I enquired with regards to the TU. This is what I got back from Peter:
"there are a number of moving parts at the moment that can affect any updates so I cannot provide dates but we will update when appropriate."
Can be seen here for those having issues on their platforms:
https://twitter.com/JimPrice83/status/1353806316641378306?s=19
https://twitter.com/AlignResearch/status/1352871178499731457?s=19
Align confirmed they top sliced to protect capital. They continue to be supportive shareholders and have no further intention to reduce