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The Indian funds has not been fully priced in SP due to lack of certainty. Once we have a confirmatory RNS that we have the funds, I expect a substantial rise in market cap. I think alot of traders will exit on the initial rise, but I speculate there's more news to follow after the first update on India. Hopefully we'll finish the year with a strong position. Just need a bit more patience....

7am: slides
9am:conference call

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https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/61129daf8f5b0057e0313a86

Hopefully we'll have an upbeat update next week. GLA

Seems like 'tug of war' discussions ongoing. India will have to entice Cairn to accept a deal prior to appeal. India has asked US to dismiss the case on the basis that India has 'sovereign immunity'. I think India is trying to paint a gloomy picture for the road ahead if Cairn chooses to decline the offer. I believe both parties will have to compromise, and reach mutually acceptable terms.

Capital allocation: (assuming we strike a deal)
Once Cairn gets cash from India I think a portion of it should be allocated for share buyback. This would be ideal for LTH and siginifactly improve dividend once Egypt assets becomes fully operational. Unlike many posters on here I'm rather excited about our partnership with Cheiron in Egypt.
GLA
All IMO DYOR

If Cairn rejects the offer and presses ahead with further litigation it could take years for us to claim half the amount due. A protracted war with India is not in our favour. If we can get the principle amount, we can use the capital to make further investments that will yield alot more cash in that time. Our area of expertise is to find oil and not litigation.

Cairn, a small UK company was able to stand against a nation with vast resources and force it to reconsider its stance by changing its law.

It my view, this is a massive victory. $1.2B is a nice sum. The alternative would be to identify/pick $5-20 millions assets here and there. Thereafter we'd need to go through complex litigation to 'freeze' assets. This repeated many times over..... internationally. To recover $1700millions using this route will be time consuming and a difficult undertaking.

I say lets not drain our resources any more and let Cairn focus on what it knows best, finding more oil. I'm intrigued who else agrees with this?

https://news.bloombergtax.com/daily-tax-report-international/vodafone-cairn-in-talks-to-settle-tax-row-india-official-says

It could be hours or days before we get the long awaited RNS: I think we'll probably get the principle and the remaining $500 million will be re-invested in India . GLA

India is in talks with Vodafone Group Plc and Cairn Energy Plc to settle long-running tax disputes with them, a top government official said after the nation last week moved to abolisha rule on retrospective taxation scorned by investors.

“There are some informal discussions going on,” Revenue Secretary Tarun Bajaj said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Haslinda Amin on Monday. “I would not like to discuss them in public domain, but overall the answer to your question is, yes,” he said when asked if the companies were willing to drop cases in international tribunals.

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A settlement seems elusive. India will do its utmost to contest the award but I firmly believe the appeal will be in favour of Cairn. Once the appeal goes through , this will strengthen Cairn's position and India's assets abroad will be subject for seizure with exception of assets that serve a 'soverign function'. All commercial assets will be at risk. I find this mind-boggling as it seems majority of India's english news agencies want the GOI to settle.

Based on India's stubborn position I don't see a settlement any time soon, not until appeal is concluded. I hope India faces the full force of law and learns a lesson that the intrinisic value of BIT is adherence to it.

PS: 1/3 of $1.2bn is $400million and NOT $300millions

Conciliation efforts
Following reports of the French court decision, Cairn had said it prefers an amicable settlement with the government of India. ET had reported earlier this month that the government has held talks with Cairn on a possible settlement. The government was ready to even consider legal changes, if needed, to settle the dispute.

“Our strong preference remains an agreed, amicable settlement with the Government of India to draw this matter to a close, and to that end we have submitted a detailed series of proposals to them since February this year. However, in the absence of such a settlement, Cairn must take all necessary legal actions to protect the interests of its international shareholders,” a Cairn spokesperson said.

https://m.economictimes.com/news/india/govt-looking-into-paris-asset-freeze-secured-by-cairn/articleshow/84488585.cms

Madness! Current MCap is below book value. The relentless slide is mostly due to market taking a dislike to the Egypt deal. I personally hold an optimistic view to the Egypt venture but also a realistic one, any positives that will come out from this deal is going to take a while. Aegon Asset Management seems to be a big seller and I believe they don't have to declare their holdings below 3% so they could well be the seller in the background suppressing the price. Once selling pressure dries up we should see some form of correction.

The only thing that would cause the SP to spike is a resolution with India. Judging from how India has responded to latest events I am not so hopeful.

Hellyeah, I fully concur!

This will obviously impact Air India’s privatization process. The uncertainty could spook bidders and drive down the price of the airline. Considering how important this divestment is to the government, expect a relatively speedy resolution to this never ending legal battle.

Cairn filed the lawsuit on Friday in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, seeking to make Air India liable for the judgement that was awarded to Cairn. The lawsuit argued that the carrier as a state-owned company, is "legally indistinct from the state itself."

https://m.timesofindia.com/world/uk/uk-india-full-trade-deal-is-in-sight-london-think-tank/articleshow/82200036.cms

A free trade agreement between the UK and India "is very much a possibility", according to a new briefing paper by London think tank Institute of Economic Affairs (IEA) published ahead of the virtual call between PMs Narendra Modi and Boris Johnson on Monday.
The paper, authored by Indian-origin IEA academic fellow Shanker Singham, who served as trade adviser to the US government and is a member of the Bretton Woods Committee, also states that the UK and India are set to announce an enhanced trade partnership (ETP).

Singham urges Johnson in his talks with Modi to push the Indian government to recognise and respect its existing commitments under bilateral investment treaties.
"Future British investors in India will expect the Indian government to abide by the BIT, including arbitration judgments. If this cannot be certain, then why would any investor feel confident about the provisions of a future FTA?" the report asks

I think this could potentially be a massive project for Cairn. In my opinion this acquisition is part of a calculated move from Cairn's strategic plan. Possible plans for subsea gas pipe between Israel and Egypt would lay the groundwork for the gashub that would enable Cairn to supply Europe. I'm not sure if I have connected the dots correctly. But if true, this could be MASSIVE.

"Cairn plans to bring lawsuits in the coming weeks to pierce the corporate veil to establish that (certain) state-owned entities are India's alter ego under Bancec for enforcing the arbitration award," Hranitzky said.

The Bancec guidelines deal with determining when a judgment against a foreign state is enforceable against its agencies. The development comes a week after India reportedly challenged the arbitration tribunal verdict in a court in The Hague last week.

https://www.cityam.com/boris-johnsons-india-visit-will-be-test-of-trade-principles/

"The British Prime Minister is widely expected to broach India honouring international arbitration awards during his April 26 visit."

I think India will have to pay up! non-adherence to BIT will not be in India's favour. To appeal on grounds that India has the sovereign right to tax is futile and fallible. Creating a new tax law to retrospectively tax a company is not just or equitable. I see the funds coming eventually. Only after damaging its image globally among investors. AiMO

Hi Mrc, here you go:

www.livemint.com/news/india/india-has-till-mid-april-to-appeal-against-cairn-award/amp-11616141402964.html

https://www.dtnext.in/News/Business/2021/03/20003631/1281883/Cairn-case-India-has-time-till-midApril-to-appeal.vpf

The arbitration award was acknowledged by New Delhi on January 19, add 90 days .... mid-April

India's scope to appeal looks very limited, such as procedures not followed. Looks good for Cairn. AIMO

?Cairn’s UK exploration licences to be retained
? Substantial part of the UK tax losses expected to be retained
? Shell-operated Jaws-1 well to spud Q2 2021 (Cairn 50%, Shell 50%)

I think the Egyptian acquisition is a prudent thing to do. I agree with RagstoRich that I do not think POO will be at these levels indefinitely. Its a matter of time before OPEC ramps up production. Additionally, demand will be high in the early weeks of economies opening up. I expect once demand reach a climax point it will taper off and return to pre-covid levels.
Having a diversified portfolio gives us the advantage to selectively increase extraction of commodity with higher prevailing market price.

Double production, triple reserves.

Cairn, in partnership with Ceiron. Our partner have an established presence in the area which will enable a seamless transition.

35,000 bpd base with target of 50,000 bpd in a couple of years

Stable / competitive fiscal regime in egypt

$1.7 billion from India (with 5 jurisdictions have now recognised the award).

Divestment of a declining asset redeploy cash to promote growth.