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Unless somebody is hiding something, this is a well run but seriously undervalued company. Surely a private equity company with a longer term view will bid soon? Sentiment, plus the woodford debacle, has ruled the share price. A really high yield for a fund not concerned with short term valuations. Definitely a contrarian buy for the slightly brave. IMO / DYOR!!
The Woodford/ invesco deal was on the RNS a few days ago. Market reacted well. I thought it was a great endorsement of the company that invesco was prepared to pick up a large holding. For ages the price was held down by the fear of a forced sale by Woodford. His funds still have a big holding (16% from memory), but NRR exposure to woodford lessening. I guess it only took a few sales two days ago for profit takers to cash-in. I think this becomes a buy again at below 220p. The sentiment re property is at best volatile - i think this is a sufficiently good company to use dips as purchasing opportunities. All subject to your own research of course!
The hidden jewel is Goshawk. My guess is that it's hard of hearing product has done well in its beta test in IoM. Private equity vultures have got in quick before its value is widely seen.See below on this thread. Founder of Goshawk has significant shareholding (25 or 30% from memory). PE guys will push Goshawk like fury and then sell Goshawk to a major telecoms player for a huge capital profit and founder will cash in very well. That's great for him. He has spent many years on this development - so he earns his reward. But it's really galling for the smaller private shareholder - the Board is folding too quickly. All this is surmise of course - could be completely up the wrong tree.
Seems that the Goshawk product to improve mobile usage for the hard of hearing might be significant. Its being heavily promoted in beta test on IoM and supposed to be rolled out with partners in UK generally in mid 2019.
I cant see any indication of how this is supposed to be monetised, although Manx Telecom clearly expect it to be significant. Anyone have any fuller understanding?
Solid results from PHP today. Gearing down, interest rate on borrowing down and duration of debt extended. Strong balance sheet. The small EPS fall from fund raising dilution is a temporary effect. PHP is well run. Covenants very strong and not subject to retail or other nasty pressures. Geographical diversification into RoI is a plus. Where are the negatives? - maybe the premium to NAV is high enough? Maybe the big negative is political risk with a corbyn government threatening nationalisation of everything in sight. But PHP is only providing propertyl, not private equity operating deals - so maybe not in the first line of fire for nationalisation? I really like this company, but i guess its a hold and forget - not too many catalysts for re-rating?
Anybody have any idea why NRR share price continues to fall? Even tho NRR has relatively small exposure to headline failing retailers, is there substantial worry that surplus retail property generally will depress property prices thus hitting NRR NAV, even tho its income / dividend stream still looks good?
If income is still strong, surely NRR must be a strong buy? If its sound, but being shorted re possible Woodford sales (of which I see no evidence), this lowering price must be a buying opportunity. A la Buffett - buy when others fear?
I assume that the sell-off is a knock-on effect of Toys'RUs and Matalan failures. I cant find out whether either of those companies were NewRiver tenants. As they were discounters, and discounters are a target sector for New River, its a fair bet that some of the of New River properties will be affected by those failures. Even if not affected directly, the retail discounter sector is bound to be out of favour. I think the NR balance sheet is in good shape given the refinancing, but change in senior management brings some added uncertainty. I doubt Woodford will sell much given the likely strength of the dividend and now high yield. Good old Brexit also comes into play as squeezed incomes will affect retail quickly next year. Im content to hold despite losses, will review after year-end figures with a view to adding.
Cairn Homes - floated first in London in 2015. Housebuilding land bank is enormous (mainly Dublin) purchased at very low prices. Increasing rate of completions. This will start to be profitable and cash generating soon and in a big way in 2018. House prices in Dublin up 8% first half of this year. Dublin stands to be major beneficiary (IMHO) of Brexit. Relative size of Dublin to Frankfurt means Dublin only has to secure a relatively small amount of the exodus from London to reap major benefits. Just do the crane count in central Dublin to sense the levels of activity. Interim results published 5th Sept. May of course be a disappointment, so do your own due dil (as always)
I suspect a further factor in selling now is the age of the directors. The current board are an experienced team who have eventually managed to start commercialising ALK - its been a long time coming. This (or any competing cash take-out) will secure their retirement. I agree 36p is not expensive for a long term investor, but energy stocks, especially minnows, can be very volatile in the public trading.
Since 21/05/15 Ofgem have been investigating whether a number of companies including Alkane Energy have complied with the requirements of Rule 5.13.1(b) of the Capacity Market Rules. Alkane (obviously) state that in their opinion they have complied. My guess is that this uncertainty is holding back the share price because its probably fundamental to their business model. I have no idea what the wretched rule says! If they really are fully in the clear, the share price should fly - I hope. I hold these shares.