RE: 🚀 🚀 🚀 🚀11 Sep 2025 09:35
1️⃣ Project Background
Deposit: Molaoi (Greece)
Commodity: Zinc (primary), plus silver, lead, and germanium credits
Stage: JORC Inferred resource already exists (to be upgraded to Indicated)
Upcoming program: 10,000m drilling (Sept 2025 – Feb 2026)
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2️⃣ Key Assumptions
We’ll model in-ground metal value (IGV) → then apply a “conversion factor” to reflect real project economics.
Zinc price (Sept 2025): ≈ $2,400/t (~$1.09/lb)
Germanium price: ≈ $2,000/kg (very high-value but tiny market)
Recovery assumption: 85% (zinc), 70% (germanium)
In-ground valuation factor: 2–5% of IGV (typical for explorers at Molaoi’s stage)
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3️⃣ Scenarios by Grade / Tonnage
Let’s test 50 Mt, 20 Mt, 10 Mt resources with Zn grades of 5% and 8%, plus optional germanium credit (say 50 ppm).
A. Base Case – 20 Mt @ 5% Zn
Contained zinc = 1.0 Mt Zn
Value = 1,000,000 t × $2,400 = $2.4bn IGV
Applying 3% factor → $72m project value
B. Strong Case – 20 Mt @ 8% Zn
Contained zinc = 1.6 Mt Zn
Value = $3.84bn IGV
3% factor → $115m project value
C. Germanium kicker – add 20 Mt @ 50 ppm Ge
Contained germanium = 1,000 t Ge
Value = 1,000,000 kg × $2,000 = $2bn IGV
Add to zinc case → total IGV = $4.4–5.8bn
3% factor → $130m–$175m project value
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4️⃣ Compare to Rockfire Market Cap
Current market cap (0.28p × 6.6bn) ≈ £18.5m (~$23m)
Even the conservative case (20 Mt @ 5% Zn) suggests a project valuation of ~$72m → 3× current market cap.
With higher grade + germanium, project value could stretch to 5–7× current market cap.
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✅ Takeaway
If drilling upgrades tonnage/grade and confirms germanium credits, the project economics could easily justify a market cap of £60m–£120m (0.9p–1.8p per share).🤞🤞🤞🤞
That’s the kind of rerating that would allow Rockfire to raise future funds at 1.0p+ with minimal dilution.🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞