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Thats the one r7, him and Howard Klein run RK Equity, and they pump out some good content on their website.
Has anyone been keeping an eye on Lithium Americas? They've rocketed recently, mostly due to coming back into construction so hopefully we'll be something similar Q2(ish) next year!
Brief mention of Bacanora at 29mins in
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mj_LhpSxAYM
Welcome MrCat!
I had the same dilemma at the last equity raise, and was worried about the SP falling but it held true for a good while. Obviously has come down since but that wasn't due to new shares being issued. Any finance raised now will only increase the value of this project, and it's just one last push to get into construction. Personally, I would be buying now if possible as the market cap is extremely low (potentially the value of our profit after first year). But as always, do your own research and make your own decision.
The most similar company on AIM would probably be European Metals, although they are run a bit different. Any chemical producers of battery grade product, at a low cost, are very likely to hit the ground running. My other favorites are Piedmont Lithium, Lithium Americas and European Metals. They all have their advantages and disadvantages. But with Baca producing 99.9% carbonate, we can sell at the higher end of the contract price market, and produce at the lower end of the cost curve, so our margins should be up their with the best. I just wish we were selling into Europe.. I think our SP would be doing a bit better if so. There's a lot of noise and investment coming from the top in Europe, with America following on their tails!
I feel for you guys who have been here since 2013.
7 years of a slow burning Secker (shivers).
The market will have to take notice when the finance is complete and construction starts. It just has to. 45mill market cap is ridiculously cheap in my opinion.
Although I wouldn't be surprised if our Capex was increased slightly, given that they are now looking at hydroxide as well. But i wouldnt mind that as its value added and opens up a lot more doors.
Either way, hoping for an uptick in SP come Q1 2021. Can't see it moving too much until the EPC is finished at the end of the year.
Not much info but good to hear about other companies too
31mins or so for Baca
https://soundcloud.com/lithiumionrocks
Good job we arnt owned by China then!
But yeah the external factors for us over there arnt great
I know the feeling, 2nd cup of coffee needed already over here
I think the answer to the question was 0 DogBerry, pointing to the fact the market is starting to realise the shift towards EV's.
How?
Their process was delayed due to covid and then waiting on suppliers as a result of covid.
And again, PS ramping.. thats the main problem. Him telling us all these time-frames that are never achieved. Its not Ganfengs place to communicate to Bacanora shareholders. They have done this process many times. They are good at it. They understand. Our own CEO and Covid are the reasons for frustrations around delays I feel. Look at the bigger picture.
Ganfeng are not the cause of the delays. They are the experts, they understand what is needed, have access to what is needed and it is still in their interest to get this up and running quickly. They have went from a small chemical company to currently the 2nd largest lithium company in the world, and aim to be number 1.
Bacanora have been delaying things since long before Ganfeng got onboard. The way I see it is the most of the delays are caused by Peter Secker giving time-frames that he thinks will please shareholders but cannot deliver on. Management is definitely one of, if not the worst aspect of Bacanora in my opinion, in terms of the stock. Operationally I am confident in them.
Lets not forget, we are the first to produce lithium this way at scale, it was always going to take time.
Take a look at Lithium Americas share price over the same number of years, they only own 49% of their Argentina project which is actually in the constriction stage. Then they have Thacker Pass which is expected to produce in 2022. They have seen their share price move in line with project timeline, as will ours. They have a much larger market cap and still havent produced any lithium. Be patient. Our market value will rise. It's as close to a certainty as you can get in my opinion.
I wouldn't have said so, no.
I just think patience will be rewarded here.
The fact we have off-take agreed and with just financing left really, i can't see this not going into production.
Millions upon millions will appear on the P/L when production starts and the valuation will rise substantially.
It's easily worth the wait in my opinion.
34p gives a valuation of £75m.
Thats potentially year 1 profit if market prices go back to mid teens, assuming Ganfeng take thier ownership option up. Even more profit if they don't. Down to around half that if market prices are high single figures, as they are now.
You'd be mad in my opinion to take 34p currently.
If you are a short-term trader then fair enough.
Anyone invested for the long-term i'm sure would agree that selling at 34p would be a huge wasted opportunity.
The delays have been a constant frustration for sure, but it's part and parcel for any mining/construction process.
"Bacanora Lithium is on track for 2022 production at its Sonora project in Mexico despite COVID-19 disruptions, VSA Capital head of research Oliver O’Donnell told BNamericas."
That Oliver O'Donnell boy needs sacked if that is what he's said. Either deliberately lying to us all or hasn't a clue. Even our CEO has said mid 2023 and he's always behind the times. End of 2023 if we're lucky, probably 2024 in my opinion. Constant delays in the past and almost a guarantee there will be more to come in the future.. especially now we're close to physical construction.. which is never on time lol.
Good news is it will all be worth it when we finally get there!
Did anyone send a question to Investor Relations for this meeting? I sent 2 and they said they would be answered but I've no idea where to find them. Anyone any ideas?
r7632 there is still too many variables to predict an SP. But the main thing for us will be when the equity is raised and what price it is raised at.. big difference between todays price and the 40/50p we seen a few months back.
I hope we find out a lot more come the AGM on Thursday but no doubt we'll hear the bare minimum as usual lol.
Depending on Ganfengs final ownership, i think we should conservatively have 40+mill Bacanora profit after Year 1. For that to be a Stage 1 Year 1 Profit, that's half a billion valuation on the company I think. But given all the variables still at play, could be anywhere significantly north or south of that, in my opinion. What do you guys think?
We have 8mill from M&G, 5mill from Hanwa with a further 25mill on finance completion.
It has been said in the past that there will be another equity raise for funds. Unclear at this point how much that will be as Ganfeng still have the option to double their project level ownership. They also are aiming to bring down the initially stated $420mill total cost. However, with hydroxide now in the mix, the cost will go up slightly, so hard to tell what is needed at this point. Either way, there will be dilution of some sort.
They have said most recently they are aiming for mid 2023 for first final product to off-takers. In my view it will more be like start of 2024, giving a 2 year construction period. Which is not ideal for us to wait, but I think will be more beneficial to us as the experts are forecasting increased market price by that point. So i think we are looking good.
Still a while to wait yet but once this finally gets to production we are looking conservatively at a half a billion valuation in my opinion. Bring it on.
Couple of very good points r7632! Lots going in our favor
EMH have the backing of the Czech Government which is a big pull and they will be selling into Europe, the fastest growing region for hydroxide, so the future looks great for them also. Perhaps they will move a little quicker than Bacanora, but there is actually more LCE in Sonora than Cinovec (8.8mt v 7.17). I think the upside is great for both.
psychological*