Member Info for Jamoe

"Accordingly, performance at Kiln 2 continues to strengthen, with average output now reaching over 70 tonnes per day."

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/FRG/operations-update-1rzixzv5j5kgn22.html

Positive progress. I hadn't expected it to take this long to get the Kilns up to speed but a good bench mark for the 6 remaining.

I'm cautiously hopeful they have enough cash to cover the next tranche on April 30th. Then enough time in the next 4 months to raise the last amount, hopefully via bank loan.

... and if you read on passed the bullet points you will see that it's not connected to the kiln 1 and won't be until all 4 are operational.

"The manual hydrating circuit now comprises four units constructed in-house, with a fifth under construction. Each unit produces approximately eight tonnes of hydrated lime per shift. Automation of this process is planned once all four kilns are operational."

"Aggregates lose money."

Are you suggesting that selling what is essentially a waste byproduct loses them money? How have you worked that out?

"Max production of Kiln 1 50t as it’s optimised for powder production alongside the 5 soon to be 6 8t cells. Generates up to 1m max gross revenue."

How do you know it's been optimised for powder production? I've not read this in any RNS etc.

"In normal times this would be great, however the cost of gas for the gasification plant is the current issue."

It's a coal gasification system, they are buying coal to produce gas (syngas). - "Commenced modifications to existing plant, including changing fuel source system for the kiln operation from Heavy Fuel Oil ("HFO") to coal gasification system."

"This site doesn’t make anything until the four kilns are running and long term supply contracts are in place."

I don't imagine they will see long term contracts until output is stablized and known. I'm not sure how you've come to the conclusion that they won't make money until 4 kilns are producing. Are you aware of the costs per Kiln?

"Great they have moved on, yet where the 2m for the final options is coming from is in every LTH mind."

Back in Jan I wrote the following and since then we've complete the Jan tranche. I expect we've enough for the April 30th. But would agree there isn't enough to cover the last tranche in July 31st. In addition, back in Jan we were also sat on 5000t of QL ready to sell, with an estimated value of $1m.

================================================= Post from Jan 15th=================================================

Firering, by my estimations are sat on roughly $2.44m 


- $1,000,000 (Ricca)

- $1,154,790 (Recent raise of £0.86m)

- $290,000 (Expected with Ricca selling asset)


The next 2 tranches come to $1,963,334. I’m assuming some of the remaining will go towards running costs over the next 3 months.

That really only leaves the July 31st Tranche of $1,033,333 to find in ~5 months. More time for them to get Kiln 2 producing, more time for Kiln 1 to add to the inventory that already sits around 5000t (~$1,000.000 at $200/t).

Firering, by my estimations are sat on roughly $2.44m 


- $1,000,000 (Ricca)

- $1,154,790 (Recent raise of £0.86m)

- $290,000 (Expected with Ricca selling asset)


The next 2 tranches come to $1,963,334. I’m assuming some of the remaining will go towards running costs over the next 3 months.

That really only leaves the July 31st Tranche of $1,033,333 to find in ~5 months. More time for them to get Kiln 2 producing, more time for Kiln 1 to add to the inventory that already sits around 5000t (~$1,000.000 at $200/t).

===============

References/Workings Below:

===============

Ref: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/FRG/updated-agreement-to-acquire-quicklime-project-l3ar5frikeolmlb.html

- an option to acquire a 5.5% interest no later than 30 January 2026 for a payment of US$981,667;

- an option to acquire a 5.5% interest no later than 30 April 2026 for a payment of US$981,667; and

- an option to acquire a 3.3% interest no later than 31 July 2026 for a payment of US$1,033,333.


“Firering Strategic Minerals plc (AIM: FRG), a producer of lime products and explorer of critical minerals, is pleased to announce that it has received US$1m in full and final settlement of all debts and claims owed by Ricca. In addition, Firering announces the closing of a placing and subscription raising a further £0.86 m (the "Placing" and "Subscription"). “

Ref: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/FRG/fundraising-and-limeco-operations-update-60tbcon53oov2dy.html


- Received $1,000,000 from Ricca

- £860,000 from placing which is roughly $1,154,790


“As stated previously, Firering also expects that Ricca will make a distribution of net proceeds to Ricca's shareholders following completion of the sale of a subsidiary asset for A$4.4 million (approximately £2.2 million), subject to an adjustment of up to A$332,000 (approximately £166,000) payable to Skylark Minerals Limited (ASX: SKM) (Skylark). Firering holds a 10.6 percent shareholding in Ricca.”

Ref: https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/FRG/ricca-resources-us1m-settlement-finalised-h6cfhczw7semxmk.html

- £2.2m minus the £166,000 is £2,034,000

- 10.6 % of £2m is £215,604

- That’s roughly $290,000

Dont forget the inventory of 5,000t, at $200/t that's roughly $1m.

"So another raise, followed by another one"

Potentially, going by their continued track record it seems likely. They've mentioned the bank loan a few times but then resorted to raises. We need that second kiln operating at a decent level and hopefully Firering can then secure the bank loan.

"with a return to target price of 1.25 inside 3 years (based on warrants)"

Can you elaborate? Warrants look like a drop in the ocean.

"So a 2/5 dilution in the next 6 months. In effect the baseline price is 0.75."

As far as I'm concerned, nothing will matter unless they get these kilns working nearer to their target values (80-100 tonnes/day). With the kilns operating and limeco able to start repaying the shareholders loan (~$45m assuming the last tranche goes through) the Mcap of £4.4m is quite undervalued, dispite the potential for dilution.

Your numbers seem to suggest that nothing is going to change apart from dilution. I'm all for hearing everyones opinions but I'd rather know how you came to them, that's where the meat is.

The shareholder loan of US$104,546,336‡ is what will be paid back to shareholders (Firering, Clearglass Investments Limited ("Clearglass") and Kai Group Ltd) once, I assume, Limeco is fully operational and profitable. It's an asset and would be paid back before dividends with the benefit of avoiding tax. In simplistic terms, it's tax free dividends.

Currently Firering have 30.7% of that asset, hopefully rising to 45% by July. Money in the bank for the January tranche, we have until 30th April to get the next payment together. Hopefully by selling quicklime etc, or Bank loan. Last report would be a raise.

· an option to acquire a 5.5% interest no later than 30 January 2026 for a payment of US$981,667;

· an option to acquire a 5.5% interest no later than 30 April 2026 for a payment of US$981,667; and

· an option to acquire a 3.3% interest no later than 31 July 2026 for a payment of US$1,033,333.

" In June 2025, Limeco completed its first commercial sale of 90 tonnes of quicklime to a client in Zimbabwe"

It says our first sale of 90 tonnes was in June this year, not our only sale.

"Building on this momentum, earlier this month it secured a contract with a regional trader for both high- and lower-grade quicklime, reinforcing our confidence that Limeco can rapidly establish itself as a competitive supplier."

It's clearly going in the right direction but we all know it's been massively delayed. The figures from Kiln 2 will surely show us whether they have the ability to get the fabled 80t-100t production. Then hopefully the bank loan follows.

GLA.

Agreed MediMan. I wonder, in the longer term it could make them stronger. If they have to go further afield to get contracts. It should lead to a more diverse customer base and therefore more robust.

They have their aggregate and as you say, cement and agri avenues. Although both cement and agricultural routes are also reliant on water. I don't know what the impact is, but imho, there will be some. But it's not going to be zero. Interesting times, and I look forward to news.

When I first got into this stock, Zambia's copper production was sold to me as the bigger customer base. With cement and agricultural being smaller players. As such, I've not looked further into quicklime competitors and how far their reach might be. Something I'll note down to research later.

@ jbe81 - I'm aware the article regarding copper producers being asked to cut power usage was from July last year. They've had a terrible drought, it's lasted a long time. They're not going to keep asking them to reduce power usage so I doubt there would be a more recent article (not that I've spent time looking). I've not seen anything to say the opposite.

I also never said anything about Firering having a power issue. I don't believe they need much more eletricity than a good generator couldn't provide. Coal gasification doesn't require eletrcitiy either so I don't think quicklime production would be impacted

What would be impacted though is the demand for quicklime. That was my point.

I'd hazard a guess that one reason for the low SP would be down to the power issues in Zambia. This will impact copper production, which in turn would impact how much quicklime would be needed.

The Kariba Dam produces 80% of Zambia's electricity. The current drought has caused a lot of issues and blackouts.

https://www.zambezira.org/hydrology/lake-levels

We're not just waiting on the kilns but also the rainy season or more diversification in Zambia's energy production.

https://www.mining.com/web/zambia-asks-mines-to-curtail-normal-power-use-by-40-amid-crunch/

The water levels in the Dam do seem to be slowly increasing though, so there is some hope that things will settle.

Average CRML share volume over the last 2 months was 65.3k per day. That's a fairly large range though. 9k being the lowest to 400k the highest.

Average for Jan is a fair bit higher at 116k per day.

I don't think it would take much longer than 1 month. Perhaps less on the back of good news.

Bloody acroynms GBML*

Thanks Hosko :hat-tip:

Maidit308

I think you've mistaken the post regarding CBMLs portion which was suggested to be $2.2m from a poster on the advfn investor hub.

I've posted elsewhere regarding what I think TM1 will come out with.

At US$8.81 (current) I think we come out with c. £4.5m (After GBML shares and expenditure, Irelands corporation tax of 25%)

Now listening to Toto - Hold the Line....

"Hold the line

Love isn't always on time, oh, oh, oh

Hold the line

Love isn't always on time, oh, oh, oh"

Jamoe "Holding the line" Mug.

Dusty, thanks, it's a nice change to see some mutual repsect on these boards (been quite toxic at times).

Agreed, it should be enough. I'm wathcing the CRML ticker like a hawk. At $10 a share we are looking at c. £5.3m - wouldn't that be a thing.

I need to do a bit of research into CRML's Wolfsberg mining project, it might come in mid way through March according to a poster on the advfn investor hub. No clue how honest/rampy that is.

"So 284,362 CRML shares in the bank on 28 feb. So if CRML price stays the same as yesterday ($7.72), at end month we should have $2.2m on paper. But Murphy should not sell until approval of Wolfsberg mining operations around mid march 2025. Share price should double then, unless Trump grabs Greenland before ..."

https://investorshub.advfn.com/Global-Battery-Metals-Ltd-REZZF-39002

Nothing is certain though, going to be an interesting few months.

Jamoe the "Mug."

"calculated at 90% of the closing market price of the shares on the day before the signing of the Heads of Agreement as announced on 22 April 2024"

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TM1/completed-sale-of-lrh-to-european-lithium-a7ehjd72ku2leff.html

Yep, share price was $8.1 on the 19th April 2024. Calculated at 90% of the share price, $7.29

US$7.29 x 1371742 - $9,999,999.18

As close as your're getting to $10m sales value.

You've also got Irelands 25% corperation tax. I believe this would be classed as an "excepted trade". (Disclaimer: I'm not a Tax expert but better to err on the side of caution.)

https://www.revenue.ie/en/companies-and-charities/corporation-tax-for-companies/corporation-tax/basis-of-charge.aspx

I have a spreadsheet with live data (sp, exchange rates etc), but keep changing as I was typing out the workings. I'll post that later.

CRML was at US$8.60

After GBML Expenses and Shares are taken. Minus 25% corp tax.

£4,518,143.48

Getting close, hopefully see an RNS on this soon.

"Aggregate production increased 58.9% to 84,702 tonnes in Q4 2024 compared to Q3 2024. This has also driven a material uplift in operating cashflow in Q4 2024 compared Q3 2024.

First production of core quicklime product imminent"

https://x.com/FireRing_SM/status/1886727272368935015