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Pleasure CB
All rather taxing……
And the reference to “(inc windfall tax)”
Clearly RNST forgot that UK energy firms will now pay an additional 25% tax for the next 12 months, called the Energy Profits Levy.
12 Months ? Remind me of the year of first production lol
Hilarious
Jack
Watts
How anyone can come on here offering up tax advice is beyond me. It’s a complex subject and even more so in oil and gas.
If you have the time:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/oil-gas-and-mining-ring-fence-corporation-tax
Oil and gas firms operating in the North Sea are taxed differently to other firms.
Taxes on their profits are higher - they pay 30% corporation tax on their profits and a supplementary 10% rate on top of that. Other firms pay corporation tax at 19%.
In both cases ( see above link) CAPEX is recovered at 100% to set against Profits or a recovery in cash at a discounted rate.
That’s probably why in the Exane document of 25 March they had Victory total Revenues at US$ 698.1M compared to total Corp Tax at US $ 177.3M, so an effective rate of 25% rather than 40%.
If the prospective purchaser is a large corporate I am sure that they would see to maximise their tax position.
Try harder RNST !!!
Jack
Deemule
“Daniel’s” lol
I have been bullish on oil for quite some time now having posted my assessment of Cali, and fully agree with the statement you posted.
The 2021 average $/bbl in 2021 was $65.4 (2020 $38.4) and tracks Brent average over the period minus c$10/bbl
I also think the long term read across for Gas per therm is £1.2-£1.4+ (Previous post shows why NPV 10 uses £0.55)
The “New Normal” - Go figure
Jack
“Brent crude will need to average $135 a barrel in the 12 months from July, up $10 from the bank’s previous forecast, for global inventories to normalize by late 2023, analysts at Goldman Sachs said, in a note, in the face of rebounding Chinese demand and reduced production from Russia.“
Naturally the BODs main focus should be increasing Shareholder value but the Market determines the SP.
Quite often the Market is wrong, which allows Investors to make substantial profits.
The question is, should Shareholders be expecting a return from distressed Oil & Gas assets within 3.5 years from the get go.
When you look at the RNS for 2021, and the annual accounts content, we can see a £7.5M fund raise at .55, two CPR, additional 13% investment in Corallian, £1M loan to Corallian ( with £500k sold to “Strategic Investors”), Victory FDP, consolidation of Cali assets, West Newton operational updates etc etc.
The BOD have not stood idly by, during a period of global shut down due to COVID. Maybe the fool is looking in the mirror.
Give them a break to bring our assets to a successful conclusion.
I am confident that all of our assets have attractive value and we are now in the time period for transformational gains.
At any point, we could see SP “Shock and Awe”
Non believers, exit stage left
Jack
Good to see another 6.35M shares purchased with Mr. Christopher Harborne ( AML Global Ltd) moving to 47,350,000 shares or 8.18% between 25 May and 31 May.
£170M in, with a c£2.4M Divi due 29 July.
Deep pockets
Jack
I see that Mr. Christopher Harborne ( AML Global Ltd) has amassed a 7.08% shareholding between 05 May to 26 May.
Didn’t take any of mine but nice to see someone taking up a position at those prices.
Must see value, like me
Jack
Good to see that Gaelic Resources Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Reabold now owns 42 per cent. of Daybreak's share capital, as enlarged by the completion of the Transaction.
As Gaelic is 100% owned by Reabold and a UK establishment was created back in 2020 with common Directorships.
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/FC037614/filing-history
Fully secured to Reabold Shareholders 100% and now Daybreak can start to hit the ground running, maximise the 1M proven resource production and expand the opportunity in the area.
With Brent at $ 114+, all great news.
Bring on Victory transaction…….
Jack
Divi increases by 6% to 7.2.
Expected to almost double business again in next 5 years.
Great news
Jack
Recent world events have reinforced the long-term needs of our customers, requiring capabilities utilising differentiated technology, test and training solutions which are directly aligned with our strategy. This defence and security context is heightening the market needs for our six distinctive offerings. Our addressable market is worth more than £20bn per year and we see increased customer demand for our high value solutions in their priority growth segments. The major focus for growth is in our three home countries, the UK, US and Australia, where we are pursuing similar opportunities to support their shared defence and security mission. The formation of the AUKUS alliance, between these nations, reinforces our multi-domestic strategy and makes us increasingly relevant. We are well positioned to deliver strong growth in the UK and more than double our Australian and US businesses in the next five years.
Building on our track record of growing the company by 75% over the last six years, we have increased the scale of our ambition. We will grow by another 75% over the next five years to more than £2.3bn revenue. Within our latest strategic business plan, we see 30% of our future growth coming from the UK and more than 50% coming from Australia and the US. This plan is supported by our strong balance sheet and continued investment in our global strategy, through both organic opportunities and strategic acquisitions.
A rise into the Preliminary Results next Thursday will be welcome.
Even better if we hear upbeat momentum is the order of the day and Jeffries will then be putting a 5 in front of their target.
Jack
Forgot to mention that there is also an "Excel Bagger" CEILING.
What's in it for the prospective purchaser/s, what's their anticipated Return on Investment. What's their Multi Bag ?
Their FLOOR is the existing NPV 10 Cash flow, which shows a rapid return on investment. They would have adjusted this as per my comments below to determine price point, valuation and their Multi Bag!
https://reabold.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/REABOLD-RESOURCES-1.pdf
I also like the comments that a Purchaser already operating in the region could use existing infrastructure, which would also be in their calculations.
Jack
I agree CB. What do shareholders expect when the Directors are dealing with Price Sensitive info.
Time better spent looking at the Valuation. £10M, £50M, £200M ? As we all know the NPV can be challenged on numerous levels. The upfront CAPEX cost would have increased due to current environment. However, 50p a therm was the long term historical average and whilst it’s spiked at £4.62, I reckon in the medium term it will stead in the £1.4 to £2.2 range. The new norm.
Play around with the graph yourself. Flex it out to 10 years to see why 50p a therm was used.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/uk-natural-gas
Offer up any creditable arguments why moving forward the price per therm will not settle in my range.
From the above you must agree with me that valuing Victory and sale price is tough.
This now leads me onto Shareholder return.
Search Companies House for Corallian.
https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/09835991
Go onto filing history and tick the Capital box, which will give you a history of Share raises, Price point etc.
I have already done this. Total Shares 7,540,686, Value £11,190,195. Average price paid £1.48, lowest £1, Highest £2.2.
So we can easily determine that Floor Price at £11.2M, as this in not a distressed Sale.
So £50M is a 4 bagger for Shareholders.
Obviously the £1M convertible Loan would also come into play. Above £3.20 it converts at 312,500 shares to RBD. At £1.50, it converts at 666,667 shares.
Now, with the above information you can create your own “Excel bagger” and work out the value to RBD.
My own record is a 161 x return on investment.
Good luck
Jack
Awesome announcement from RBD.
Tidying up exercise as a preclude to the main event.
Jack
As part of the Corallian strategic review, which has reached the stage of a non-binding, conditional offer for Corallian based on its Victory asset, we have agreed to acquire six licences from Corallian.
Shanny80
Alternatively, the 2014 to 2017 £150m share buyback I thought was a good idea.
Dividend, Share buyback or Strategic acquisition?
Jack
Well done on taking profit.
Black rock increase their holding by just under 1% and GLG RNS their have gone above the 5% threshold.
With the Macro outlook stating NATO members should increase their % of GDP allocated to defence, I see no reason that QQ cannot get back to £4 in the short term.
Progressive dividend policy, highly cash generative, order backlog supporting c80% of forward year Revenues, Enhancement of US Management team, in the right place at the right time…….
What’s not to like !
Jack
Great update, with good growth and cash potential in a relevant market.
“Recent world events have reinforced the long-term needs of our customers, including capabilities utilising differentiated technology, test and training solutions which are directly aligned with our strategy. “
Jack
CB
Reabold North Sea……..great find.
I think it was first acknowledged in Apr 21 of a planned liquidity event in H2 2022. No other news since the strategic review kicked off in Sept 21
Nothing to add at this point, just looking for options like you.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/09/introduction-reverse-mergers.asp
Jack
I need to brush up on my 3rd conditionals or Perfect conditionals!!
Jack
Announcing the review, Mr Kwarteng said: “It remains the case that fracking in England would take years of exploration and development before commercial quantities of gas could be produced for the market, and would certainly have no effect on prices in the near term.
“However, there will continue to be an ongoing demand for oil and gas over the coming decades as we transition to cheap renewable energy and new nuclear power.
The Govt has therefore decided to ignore fracking and fast track the largest onshore discovery since the 70s. Generous tax breaks and Govt backed loans are expected to offer companies unprecedented strategic advantage in the medium term to bring the bacon home.
In other news, Victory in GB is creating significant interest according to gas leaks.
Jack
You would of thought that as Europe and the US wake up to defence spending, QQ should benefit in the medium term as they continue to strive for customer excellent and value for money.
Large order book bodes well for incremental activity and new business wins.
Are they up to it ?
Jack
Well the 25 x tuppence increase in the last 6 weeks is excellent news.
Still a massive takeover target at £3 per share, as this price significantly undervalues Medium term potential.
The Govt golden share is to protect IP and is easily transferred to the right purchaser.
Look forward to results and the next Divi.
Jack