RE: Why would23 Sep 2022 20:10
This is info I read from June on EOG published by Tennyson
THE FULL PACKAGE
Europa Oil & Gas (EOG LN) is a diversified full-cycle E&P, with a modest amount of production onshore UK, low risk appraisal both onshore and offshore UK, and high impact exploration in Morocco and Ireland. Having weathered the downcycle in commodity prices, the company is well positioned to benefit from today’s strong price environment. High margin production covers G&A costs and organic production growth, with fully funded material near-term drilling catalysts, and potential blue-sky upside, overseen by an experienced, high-quality Board. We initiate coverage with a 7.8p/shr target price.
Production exceeding expectations. Europa has timed the oil cycle well, with the initiation of production at Wressle at rates well above expectations coinciding with the rallying oil prices. The field more than doubled group production, with Europa currently delivering over 300 bopd – now equivalent to over US$1m of monthly sales at today’s oil price (US$119/bbl). We expect more to come over the second half of the year, with investment in gas infrastructure allowing for a hike in the currently constrained rates at Wressle. There is further growth expected with the development of the gassier *****tone Flags formation, which we believe could add a further c.250 boepd of net production at peak.
Meanwhile, although as a UK domestic producer Europa is impacted by the new Energy Profits Levy (the windfall profits tax), its effect is substantially offset by an increased investment allowance (raised from 62.5% to 80%) introduced concurrently. This allowance is designed to incentivize investment in the region, rewarding spenders with the ability to immediately save 91p of tax for every £1 invested. Perhaps counter intuitively therefore, the changes mean that Europa’s upcoming appraisal well at Serenity, plus development at Wressle will provide significant shelter from tax going forwards.
Near term catalyst. Operator i3 Energy recently announced that it has booked a window for the arrival of the Stena Don semi-sub for the Serenity appraisal well, now confirmed to spud in early September. The highly anticipated well is targeting around 17 mmbbls net to EOG, which at US$15.4/bbl (NPV10), would be transformational in a success case. Given that the well is classified as appraisal, there is no independent geological chance of success, however we expect the well to have a better than one-in-two chance of meeting its objectives. Still, should it fail to prove an extension of the discovery, the c.10 mmbbls already discovered (c.2.5 mmbbls net to EOG) is expected to be commercial as a joint development with the neighbouring Tain field, providing protection on the downside should drilling disappoint.
Exploration assets in an improving market. Meanwhile, exploration assets in Ireland and Morocco are being marketed for farm out.