Rainbow Rare Earths Phalaborwa project shaping up to be one of the lowest cost producers globally. Watch the video here.
Am I the only one that researches this stock or what?
Sigh. Here are two sources, outlining why the Tenet gamble hasn't paid off and theatres are operating at an effective loss and may need to scale back down.
:::Variety:::
After ‘Tenet’ Stumbles and ‘Wonder Woman 2’ Moves, Movie Theaters Brace for Rough Fall ...
"For movie theaters that took the risk of reopening — implementing safety measures, orchestrating extra auditorium cleanings and hiring back staff and training them to adhere to new protocols — the dearth of studio content is a big stumbling block. Many venues say they are already operating at a loss, but they believe it’s important to start showing movies again so people will get back in the habit of going to the multiplexes. There’s a chance that some venues could reduce hours of operation, or only open certain days of the week, if attendance remains low.
“It feels like distribution has kind of abandoned the movie theaters,” says Brian Schultz, founder and CEO of Studio Movie Grill, which operates theaters in 10 states. “I understand the core economics at play here, but without new product, we can’t keep things going. Christopher Nolan put an amazing stake in the ground with ‘Tenet,’ but now other studios need to follow his lead.”"
https://variety.com/2020/film/news/tenet-movie-theaters-coronavirus-no-time-to-die-1234771424/
:::Screenrant:::
"Per Indiewire, things look like they're only going to get worse for the theaters that have reopened to show Tenet. During its second week in North America Tenet only managed to bring in $6.7 million, even with the addition of 100 extra theater reopenings. This hurts many theaters that reopened specifically to show Tenet, as the film's box office take suggests that many theaters are operating at a loss to showcase the movie. Seeing how there isn't another big release slated for a couple of months - and potentially more if releases get delayed again - many theaters are set to be losing money in the upcoming weeks."
https://screenrant.com/tenet-movie-box-office-movie-theaters-loss-costs/
Where on Earth did you pluck December 2021 figure from.
Care to share?
Fitch Ratings, taking into account Cineworlds previous balance sheet, new secured debt facility and new revolving credit facility (RCF), said in July...
"SHORT-TERM Liquidity Crisis Averted: Cineworld has increased its liquidity through an additional USD250 million of senior secured debt and increasing its RCF by USD110 million to USD573 million. It has also arranged with its RCF lenders for a waiver of its leverage covenants for June 2020 and an increase in its net debt-to-EBITDA covenant to 9.0x for the December testing date. The increase in liquidity modestly eases Cineworld's financial risks and provides an additional nine-to-10 month cash-burn capacity based on Fitch's estimates. This adds to the five-to-six months of liquidity that Cineworld retained when cinemas closed in mid-to late-March."
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-affirms-cineworld-at-b-off-rwn-outlook-negative-15-07-2020
So 14-16 months liquidity from March 2020. That takes them to May/June 2021 best case. Remember, all of this is with their sites closed, no staffing costs, bills etc which is no longer the case since theaters are now open/opening, and operating on a loss with nothing interesting but Tenet to show, which isn't doing that great.
You can't just magic up liquidity.
@quick
Would all these companies hold shorts on Cineworld if they thought they wouldn't make money?
https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B15FWH70/
I think not.
@PinkEye
Why is a rights issue unlikely?
I think it's very likely, regardless of what the results say.
If the market tanks on the back of the news, something obviously must be wrong and the business will have to shore up it's liquidity.
If the market likes the news, let's say there were some cash savings, the business will still have to short up its finances, just like it did at the start of the pandemic, prior to running 6 whole months without any revenue.
Remember, Fitch estimate that Cineworld have enough liquidity to run until May 2021 with their sites closed and that breaching their debt covenant is likely. Cineworld are now re-opening, with only Tenet to play until November, and with the Tenet take so far being less than expected and slowing down fast, analysts are commenting that theater chains are effectively running at a loss. Add to that, the fact that Studios are delaying movies further and Europe is trying to get a hold on a second wave as we go into Autumn/Winter, the fact that Israel, where my Mooky is based, is in it's second national lockdown and the fact that Mr Chris Witty and Sage want to do another national lockdown in the UK for 3 weeks, is telling.
The pandemic isn't over. Winter is coming (GOT fan) and any shrewd business will be shoring up it's finances somehow for the long haul, in case the worst happens.
How do you know how many are sells and how many are buys?
You did know that the London Stock Exchange DO NOT disclose what is a buy or sell and that share trades listed are guesstimates on if the trade is a buy or sell, based on the SP price and present spread.
Should be fundamentals that make people buy more but it's nice to know your investment choices are based on what people post on a random forum board.
Not an investment strategy for me but kudos to you friend.
The Q1 results made the SP hit 433p.
The SP lost almost 50% of it's value thereafter only due to damaging allegations of some of their suppliers in Leicester paying less than minimum wage. This causes the top 2 dogs to buy £15m in stock for a hard bounce and a nice £7m profit.
Not only are we expecting better than Q1 results for Q2, but also the release of an independent report looking into the Boohoo/Supplier allegations in Leicester, commissioned by Boohoo themselves at a cost of a cool £10m.
Boohoo is a massive growth share.
They've just launched in the middle east. Their US presence is growing. Their social media accounts add millions each year.
Expecting the SP to exceed previous expectations.
But you wouldn't know about growth shares, sitting in Cineworld.
Anyone taking part in the Snowflake IPO today?
Bolox, what's a HL demo account?
Care to share?
Got your tin hat foil on again I see.
Stop talking bolox. It doesn't befit your name....oh wait.
@wiseabout
I don't get it, are you trying to knock me, or praise me for making profit? I can't decide.
The number one rule of investing, make money. Be it £1 or be it £100,000. As long as you take our more than you put in, you're winning.
I made a significant sum of money in Cineworld and I got out at the right time at around 94p average. My initial buy in was 62p so I could in theory, lump all that £60k profit back in Cineworld, at a lower price than I bought in at in the first place to make the profit. Investing 101!
The Cineworld bounce happened only due the hopes of dreams of a Cineworld buy out, once the law preventing Studios buying Theatre chains was rescinded in the US. Was a dead cat bounce and the fundamentals have kicked in and the SP has drifted over 20% as a result.
When it comes to Boohoo, your maths on my profit is wrong, I own 54,086 shares in Boohoo so I'll let you redo your figures.
Oh and I fully expect Boohoo to hit close to the £4 a share mark, if not exceed it, come the stellar expected results on September 30th.
Boohoo is a growth share. It is growing during Covid-19. Cineworld on the other hand....oh dear.
PS, my bank balance LOVES this hahaha
Doesn't matter, it's all true LoLoL
You will always be the defacto Cineworld clown. The one that didn't read any of my posts on the way up, wanting a lower hard entry at 62p when it went beyond 70p, 80p, 90p and completely missing the boat for weeks.
You are the genius who then bought at the top, got spiked at £1 and has watched it drop, likely with significant paper losses, almost 50% down highs. Total noob comes to mind.
A perfect example of an inept 'investor' whose posts have since become of no relevance other than "twatoid this, twatoid that".
Nothing of substance to contribute.
@Nardniles
In all investments, there are winners and there are losers. That includes the big boys and not just the average PI.
The financial crash of 2008/2009 wiped out many financial institutions; so called experts, causing a global financial crash.
Just because you're a big time investor, doesn't mean you can't and won't get wiped out. Anyone heard of the Neil Woodford fund?
There are far more big boys betting against Cineworld, than there are, betting for it. You just so happen to cheer-lead the side you've picked, in this case, the Chinese. Well the SP doesn't lie.
I don't care about what anyone else things. This is a case of fundamentals.
How much money does Cineworld have in the bank
How much money is Cineworld making
How likely it is that Cineworld will recover pre-covid-19 figures
My bet is on Cineworld running on empty by the end of the year/start of next year, requiring further liquidity. Maybe then, Cineworld will be investable after existing holders are massively diluted.
I don't understand why people repeat this mantra.
Fine, Cinema isn't going anywhere, but that doesn't mean Cineworld will be around forever, or be in the same shape as it is now forever.
Remember AMC almost filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and may still do so. All that means is that the Cinema will fall into the hands of new owners and shareholders will get wiped out.
Remember, you are invested in Cineworld, the company, not Cinemas globally.
Gosh.
Their bet on Tenet has failed because....
The Tenet take this past weekend would far lower than expected, suggesting it is going to make far less than predicted
The Tenet figures have prompted WB to delay their next big blockbuster WW84 to Christmas from October and allow Tenet a far longer run to try and recoup the the $500m they need to break even.
The Tenet figures suggest cinemas are losing money having opened up, with a rough estimate of only $5000 going to each cinema.
The Tenet figures are prompting other studios such as Disney to delay Black Widow
The question for the next set of results isn't if they are going to be bad, that's a given. The question is how bad?
My bet is on quite bad, with cinemas opening up and movies being delayed. Their bet on Tenet saving Cinemas has failed.
Like I said, I still think there will be a rights issue/dilution come year end, assuming something fantastical happens, which I doubt.
Another likely issue is, if the financials are better than expected and the SP rises somewhat, I still expect a rights issue/dilution at the higher SP. Either way, Cineworld need to raise money because they don't have much of it coming in right now!
@_benhouse
It's pretty easy to determine cinemas are running at a loss and most entertainments analysts have done just that!
We have the balance sheet for operating cinemas for all cinemas via their RNSs, we know their figures from past performances as early as Q1. We know how much extra liquidity was raised. It's pretty standard stuff. Don't tell me you invested in Cineworld without knowing the financials?
Fitch Ratings cover the stock in great detail. You should read their breakdowns.
You also have the box office take figures that are released weekly. We know what Tenet is pulling in globally. Not just Tenet, but all the movies currently running in theatres.
We also know what cinemas are open in the US and which h ones are closed.
The only unknown at the moment is the exact figures between the last set of results and the next one expected but it's fairly easy to extrapolate they are going to be dire. Unless of course, as I said, they somehow found magic tree money seeds to plant in their in their car parks.
The operating costs are higher than the current take for cinemas. There simply isn't enough big movies or draw at the box office to change that.
They bet their opening on 'Tenet' saving Cinema. Time and again, they shifted their opening date to coincide with Tenets release date as they believed Tenet would save cinema. It didn't happen.
They didn't expect to lose Mulan to PVOD either but it did.
The best they can hope for now is that Studios play ball and start releasing movies but the delays are creating a world of hurt for exhibitors.
You need to understand one simple fact, Studios are running the show. Cinemas are at the mercy of studios right now.
@_benhouse
Well duh, that is my point!
Cineworld have enough liquidity to run till May 2021, best case scenario, assuming all their sites stay closed on a $40-$50m a month burn rate according to Fitch Ratings.
Well, their sites are now opening, their costs have since risen, staffing, Covid-19 secureness, rent, bills etc etc and they don't have the movies to bring in the revenue. I.e. they are now operating on a loss whilst their doors are open.
Tell me how this translates to "results next week will be a lot better than expected". Do they have a magic money tree in the car park of all their sites? LoL
With no big movies till Christmas and the cinemas around the globe, liquidity QUICKLY becomes a very big issue as that May 2021 figure no longer stands.
In order to survive, I see a rights issue/dilution before the year is out.
@RS2002
Mulan did just as poor if not poorer in theaters mate. Mulan is a flop, regardless of medium.
Tenet isn't fairing as well in theaters either, going by this last weekends take.
Oh and ff course delays have consequences. Marketing costs are lost etc etc. Doesn't mean studios aren't doing them. Every big movie since Feb/March has been moved, left right and center.
Delays have to be done if the movies aren't bringing in the numbers. Tenet is showing that cinemas aren't quite there yet. Heck, WB the studio behind Tenet, shifted their own next big movie to Christmas and decided to not disclose their domestic Tenet figures. Says a lot!
Disney is by far the biggest gambler, having moved several movies to PVOD and delaying others. Every major entertainment news site is running the story that Black Widow is about to be shifted.
Hold your horses, it isn't confirmed yet. But this story is running on more or less every entertainment news site. Empire, Variety, Deadline, Screencrush, Screenrant, ComingSoon etc etc
Type in 'Black Widow' in Google and go to the news tab.