Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
"There are a lot of companies (including private equity ones) that MUST be looking at this business now." I wish this were true, but I can't see how. A week ago Seb James issued a profit warning that resulted in the SP hitting a third of the previous year. And more to the point, other than a vague suggestion that things might pick up if we all bought the new iphone at £1000 each, he didn't offer any suggestions as to what he intended to do about the general malaise. In fact, he didn't seem to have any idea that he was supposed to do anything about it. The only good thing about Dixons is that the senior management are moving over to Halfords, which means that when they run that into the ground I can pick up some cheap bikes for the grandchildren.
" lets hope I am wrong." Sadly, I don't think you are.
How reliable do you think the profit forcast for is? £360 millions to £440 millions is so broad as to be meaningless. Even at the bottom figure I should break even, but I don't think these guys know what is going on and are just plucking figures out of the air.
I have been buying into this share since it was 370p and it still shows no sign of bottoming out. 8iphone or whatever it is called will probably turn out to be two tin cans and a length of string. Yet I feel a terrible impulse to buy even more shares. It is lucky that I am so tolerant of my own stupidity.
"I don't aim to "sit on my backside, play the market and make money from the labours of better men and women". " Good lad. See if you can run the share up to 300p while I ride on your coat tails. No sign of a bounce . I wonder if there is more bad news in the pipeline?
"And as for the bokers, one minute they are saying this thing is worth 350-400, the next its worth 180 ... when this is up and above 200p then will be back to saying its worth 300p...such is life" All very true. It has long been my ambition to sit on my backside, play the market and make money from the labours of better men and women, so I can't complain when things go bosoms up.once in a while. But I would still like a share price of 300p......
I think that neither the directors nor the analysts know hay from a bull's bum about this company. To issue a profit warning is one thing, to give a profit forecast of £360 millions to £440 millions is incompetent on a heroic scale. In the highly unlikely event that any of the information provided by the management is correct the SP should hit somewhere between 300p and 414p by next spring.
298p In October 2016 the SP reached 340, which according to my fiendishly stupid calculations, meant that the share had hit bottom. This years profit is estimated to be £360 millions, or 72% of 2016. 72% of 340 =244.8p A rough (very) rule of thumb is that share prices bounce about 11% of the mean. Therefore they should hit the bottom price plus 22% 244.8 x 1.22 = 298p These sums are no doubt crap, but how good were those of the professionals?
" plenty people thinking the crash is coming..." That is me. I was hopping to make a few bob from Dixons and use it to pick bargains when everything went bosoms up. It is a terrible thing when you can't profit from someone else's misery.
The share is ex dividend on Thursday, so a drop is to be expected, although it is usually taken a bit closer to the wire. But Dixons have been scraping along the bottom past year. I blame the analysts. Every time they puff the share it nosedives. Maybe a little less good news would help.
The problem seems to be that the analysts love the share and the market won't touch it with a barge pool. Maybe both sides could get together and tell the rest of us what is going on.
I like the idea of getting in at the bottom, but the problem is that the management appear pretty glum. Brian Hoffmann, president of the company's U.S. generics business told Reuters.that they were getting squeezed on prices, they would probably have to take on more staff and the USFood and Drug people don't like them. This share is very, very tempting, but I reckon that there is more bad news to come, so I will sit this one out.
With respect Initmate, I have been investing for 40 odd years and in my experience, when the big boys take an interest the shares go up. In the case of GNC, I suspect that the price has fallen because it is a bit of a dog. I wish it wasn't because it is costing me money, but it looks that way. [url]https://finance.yahoo.com/m/6ce66894-fa51-3334-b5f7-ac737769dc2c/gnc-holdings%2C-inc.-%3Agnc-us%3A.html[/url]
God knows. The projection for P/E in 2016 has dropped a bit, but not by much. I dare say that the City boys have been at the Spice Melange and are currently navigating their way up their own backsides. That said, the SP shows signs of a long, slow rise. My calculations are £16.66 by September. This is probably rubbish, but unlikely to be worse than the forecasts of the Reverent Mothers of Bishopsgate.
I am a bit lost. Rio have posted a net loss of $866m while Digital Look (http://www.digitallook.com/equity/Rio_Tinto) have a pre tax loss of $726m. Which figure do you guys find the most useful? And, while I admit that this will be similar to my grandchildren's bedtime stories, has Rio produced any estimates for income in 2016
I hope you are right and the lads in Bishopsgate have been shooting up on some bad Spice Melange. I had this group peaking at about 1180 somewhere between March and May. I hate to take advantage of some other poor bugger's misery, but I would have thought that the recent bad weather in the US would increase the profits (and thereby the SP) of builders supply merchants, not reduce them.