Member Info for HotMustard

Great news this morning. The booked reserves will increase visibility of Rockhopper. It's a threshold moment similar to when the market cap passed £100m. Good timing now that a large chunk of the placement stock has been eaten into.

Hot Mustard

"Data analysis shows that the lowest-cost electricity comes from gas. However, due to inadequate gas supply, 50 percent of gas-based generation capacity is sitting idle. After gas, coal power plants also provide an opportunity for relatively low-cost electricity. Yet, because full financing for coal imports could not be ensured, the plant load factor of coal-based power generation last year was only 56 percent. If this could be kept above 75 percent, it would be possible to reduce generation costs.

On the other hand, in the last fiscal year, the share of furnace oil in electricity generation was 10.73 percent. If this could be limited to 5 percent, and if gas and coal supplies could be increased, it would be possible to reduce per-unit generation cost by Tk 1 to Tk 1.50."

Sounds like domestic coal mining is on the menu

Hot Mustard

Fantastic news today and leaves plenty of trading time this week for the market to digest.

Well done to those who stuck this one out.

Hot Mustard

Re. strong oil environment

Demand for oil isn’t going anywhere, and one could argue a $70 barrel is relatively cheap in 2025. The buying power of the US dollar has basically halved over the past ten years - back in 2015 oil was around $50, and that was during a weak oil environment.

That makes it even more impressive that Navitas has managed to get its break-even down to $24.

I’m optimistic that there is upside with oil in general, and once production kicks off, RKH could be in for some strong years.

Hot Mustard

The upside potential is still huge and come FID 50p will look highly discounted.

At these levels one year of ISA allowance could net more than a state pension on phase 3 earnings. There's not many stocks with that kind of risk-reward ratio especially when you look at the PE ratio of S&P 500 companies.

Hot Mustard

Agreed on institutional investors coming in heavily on FID.

I expect any share price that gives >12% return over an 8 year time horizon to be eaten up by the market.

Hot Mustard

My prediction is 252p

Based on a P/E ratio of 8; 2 years of development, Phase 1 producing for 3 years and Phase 1&2 producing for 3 years.

All hinges on FID but once the Sea Lion contingent resources are booked as oil reserves, long-term holders should be able to sit back and enjoy the ride.

Hot Mustard

"Monitoring", "engaging", "preparing". A lot of BS words in that RNS.

GCM management is off the hook with the current turmoil, akin to not doing your homework and the teacher calling in sick.

Come on GCM give us something concrete for all these months of waiting.

It's a gravy train unfortunately and while the operations side is extracting oil from the ground, there are others sucking on the entity that is GKP.

I think the buyback announcement was done to sweeten up investors but it's a shame that every buyback the company has done has been a damp squib. There have been times in GKP history when they could have put a circa 20% dent of the shares in issue.

Hot Mustard

That was a pathetic RNS, almost like they are trolling shareholders.

Previously Logstics Manager for Cairn's Greenland project - sounds like he will be a great fit for the remote Falklands.

Hot Mustard

If I was a company wanting to takeover RKH, I think I would try and form a PI blockholder group in the guise of fending off a takeover offer. But secretly I would be plotting to steer them into accepting a low offer via an off-market transaction.

Hot Mustard

I like the bit about four year contract, that seems to line up nicely with first oil timescales.

It's very encouraging to see all parties keen to get a move on with the Sea Lion project.

Hot Mustard

Fantastic news today, just too bad it came while I am in another timezone and bed-ridden with covid.

These past few months have been the perfect opportunity to build a stake in the company and I am glad to have 14x my holding since my original purchases in 09/10. Makes the waiting feel a hell of a lot more worthwhile.

Despite the substantial award the real investment case is getting to production. I am expecting OM-like figures per year so huge upside still to come.

At the end of the day it's all risk vs reward and anyone waiting for 100% certainty will be too late.

I've been in since 2010 pre Sea Lion discovery and am still bullish on RKH coming good.

Premier were a huge alabtross around RKH's neck. Delighted to see the back of them. I knew they had their fingers in too many pies when they bought Encore Oil. Anyway that is history now.

I have increased my holding since the Navitas announcement in Dec and feel like the market is sleeping on this one. I'm treating this period as a time to build a stake in the company.

Obviously starting production is crucial. As long as RKH focusses on extracting value from Sea Lion and not investing too much exploring the South Basin, I think shareholder returns will be good.

Hot Mustard

The RNS says that funding will be needed for working capital, so I'm expecting a placement soon, maybe in a few days even. That would help with the OM uncertainty.

Hot Mustard

Really exciting news this week.

It's a good opportunity to build a decent stake in the company if you think RKH will become a dividend yielding stock.

Hot Mustard

With the share price at sub 100p levels would it not be worth doing more buy backs. Say another $50 million at these levels would make a considerable difference to shares in issue. As a long term holder I would rather that than a dividend this year.