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Katie Stockton, managing partner at technical research group Fairlead Strategies, has a different set of estimates based on technical analysis, which relies on trends in market data. Bitcoin faces short-term resistance around $16,800, which is a level that marks its 50-day moving average, according to Fairlead. But it could get worse.
“We remain bearish short-term,” Stockton said. “We expect negative momentum to grow after positive seasonal influences wear off in early January.”
Fairlead is expecting Bitcoin to test its initial support level around $15,600 in the coming weeks, “which will likely give way to a breakdown targeting long-term support near $13,900, defined by the 2019 high,” Stockton said. “Negative long-term momentum remains a drag on Bitcoin, as long-term oversold conditions are being absorbed without a meaningful bounce.”
While crypto traders will still be hoping for a Santa Claus Rally—a phenomenon of assets typically rising through the end of the year—that doesn’t change the fact that digital assets are staring down what may be a dire 2023

H?ow low will Bitcoin go? After an abysmal year, analysts are making their best guesses for where the largest cryptocurrency is headed into 2023—and the price targets are mostly grim.
Digital assets have had a historically bad 2022, with the market capitalization of crypto tumbling below $800 billion from nearly $3 trillion in November 2021. Bitcoin has fallen by more than 75% over the same period. 
This dramatic decline in token prices has happened alongside a rout in the stock market, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 have sold off amid higher interest rates and recession worries, which hurt risk-sensitive assets. 
B?ut cracks within crypto itself —from the meltdown of stablecoin ecosystem Terra to the bankruptcy of exchange FTX—have exacerbated losses, spurring a new “crypto winter” and pushing many investors to ditch the space altogether.
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H?asegawa sees the greatest challenge for digital assets being the macro backdrop, namely how much more the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates as it battles inflation, and whether that will cause a recession.
“I am not seeing that that struggle will trigger a panic or crash in the market, but it will continue to deter risk sentiment in the market that has already been suffering from trust issues due to the series of shocks that happened this year,” Hasegawa said, noting how Terra, failures associated with its collapse, and the recent FTX implosion have weighed on crypto traders for months.
“The great crypto winter of 2022 will continue throughout the first half of 2023 and Bitcoin will likely fluctuate without clear directions,” said Yuya Hasegawa, an analyst at crypto exchange Bitbank. 
The Bitbank analyst is targeting Bitcoin in a wide range for 2023 that could see prices fall more than 50% from current levels or, in the most bullish case, make some progress back toward the late-2021 record high near $69,000.
Hasegawa sees Bitcoin’s target range for January to June 2023 being $8,000 to $25,000, with the picture picking up in the back half of next year, where the analyst is eyeing Bitcoin between $20,000 and $50,000. This bullish case is dependent on a number of factors both intrinsic and extrinsic to digital assets.
“I think the Fed will have to stop hiking rates as early as next May, and risk sentiment will start to improve from the latter half of 2023, with possible rate cuts in sight for early 2024,” Hasegawa said. The analyst added that traders may start pricing in the “halving,” scheduled for May 2024, near the end of next year; this event refers to an adjustment to the rewards from Bitcoin mining that effectively slows new issuance.

MicroStrategy just sold some of its bitcoin holdings for the first time but remains a net buyer. ??
The company disclosed Wednesday a sale of 704 bitcoin last week for roughly $11.8 million for tax reasons. ??
"Never. No. We're not sellers," CEO Michael Saylor said in January. "We're only acquiring and holding bitcoin, right? That's our strategy."
MicroStrategy sold bitcoin for the first time, after CEO Michael Saylor said early this year that such a sale would never happen.
Citing tax reasons, the enterprise-software firm sold 704 bitcoins on December 22, yielding roughly $11.8 million, according to a Wednesday filing first reported by Bloomberg. 
But MicroStrategy remains a net buyer of the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, purchasing 2,395 bitcoin tokens between November 1 and December 21 for $42.8 million. 
Still, the bitcoin sale comes despite Saylor's vow in January: "Never. No. We're not sellers," he told Bloomberg in an interview. "We're only acquiring and holding bitcoin, right? That's our strategy."
MicroStrategy did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment. 
In late 2020, MicroStrategy became the first publicly traded company in the US to buy and hold bitcoin as part of its balance sheet.
It has since continued to add to its stockpile, even taking out billions of dollars in debt to buy more bitcoin. As of December 27, MicroStrategy held close to 132,500 bitcoin worth $4 billion, and paid a rough average of $30,397 per token. 
MicroStrategy is the largest corporate buyer of bitcoin, which has plummeted 64% year to date and now trades just over $16,600.
The firm denied rumors in June that a $205 million loan backed by bitcoin had been margin called, after the firm's chief investment officer warned of such an occurrence if bitcoin fell below $21,000.  

However, she added: "To some extent, the export ban will have been priced in already – Russia readily applying pressure to countries which enforce unhelpful policies isn't a new or unexpected tactic. The shock in the oil price that we've seen today isn't as bad as it could have been and is likely to calm down, at least partly, in the coming weeks."
Bill Weatherburn, commodities economist at Capital Economics, agreed the immediate market impact would be limited since the move has been threatened by Russia for some time.
He also said this would be the case because the U.S. and Europe have already banned Russian seaborne crude oil imports; and Urals crude is still trading below $60, so India and China can continue to import without falling foul of the cap.
Boom phase
Bob McNally of Rapidan Energy Group told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" the EU's embargo on Russian seaborne oil, the oil price cap and Russia's export ban would be the most significant factors impacting supply next year, and presented a "completely new" scenario.
He expects 2023 and subsequent years to see continued volatility in oil markets. Brent crude oil futures are currently trading around $84 per barrel, near where they started the year, but have been on a roller coaster in the mean time, approaching $140 per barrel in intraday trading in March and rising above $120 per barrel in June.
McNally believes the market is ending a roughly seven-year bust phase that was characterized by oversupply, and is in the foothills of a new multiyear boom phase that will see stronger-than-expected demand. That will play out amid big geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainties, and OPEC+ will struggle to balance the market, he said.
With Russia remaining the world's largest oil exporter for crude and refined products combined, the effects of its new embargo could be huge.
But for now, McNally argued, markets have a "boy who cried wolf" mentality after warnings that Russian supply would be cut off in March 2022 sent prices soaring but did not materialize.
"The market is in a little bit of a complacent mood regarding Russia, saying we'll believe it when we see it," McNally said.
Russian seaborne crude oil exports are down around 24% month on month in December — "so it's starting to happen, but the market will wait till it can see it before it prices it in and reacts to it," he added.

A price cap was introduced on Dec. 5 and requires traders using Western services such as maritime routes, insurance and financing to pay no more than $60 per barrel for Russian oil.
Urals crude is currently trading around $50 per barrel, according to Finnish refining firm Neste.
President Vladimir Putin's decree on Tuesday said that from Feb. 1 it would stop crude oil and oil products for five months to any nation that adhered to the cap, with a separate ban on refined oil products to come.
Russia's announcement of an oil export ban on countries that abide by a G-7 price cap is the latest sign that we've entered a new era for global energy markets, according to analysts.
But they also note it's unlikely to have a short-term impact on oil prices, with markets taking their cues from data and concrete actions rather than words.
The price cap was introduced on Dec. 5 and requires traders using Western services such as maritime routes, insurance and financing to pay no more than $60 per barrel for seaborne Russian oil. Urals crude is currently trading around $50 per barrel, according to Finnish refining firm Neste.
President Vladimir Putin's decree on Tuesday said that from Feb. 1 it would stop crude oil and oil products for five months to any nation that adhered to the cap, with a separate ban on refined oil products to come.
Dan Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global, told "CNBC Special: Taking Stock 2023" on Tuesday that despite skepticism over whether the program would work, leaders had found a way to keep oil flowing into the market while reducing Russian oil revenue.
But as a result, he said, we now have a "divided, more politically charged oil market."
"For the last 30 years, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, we've had a global market in which oil has pretty much moved around based on the economics, exceptions were Iran and Venezuela."
"But now we have what I call a partitioned oil market in which Russian oil can no longer go to its largest market, which is Europe, and the markets have been divided and that oil is now flowing east."
European countries have been scrambling to find alternative sources of oil and gas and new energy security solutions following Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February. The EU got 14.4% of its petroleum oils from Russia in the third quarter of 2022, down 10.5 percentage points year on year, as it increased imports from the U.S., Norway, Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
On Wednesday, a German government spokesperson told Reuters that Moscow's ban would have "no practical significance" for its economy, which is Europe's largest.
Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said the ban would "add fuel to the anxieties around supply." Coming just as China's reopening is set to increase oil demand, crude prices are likely to remain elevated, she told CNBC by email.

Back to 32p?

Kind

Hex - your being to kinda :)

PI - and you call me a muppet. ‘ ARB are not going to just survive they are going to thrive, in my honest opinion.’.
Pmsl. The have just delayed the inevitable, Galxay are going to walk away with the lot. PW might get a job as tea boy with Galaxy at the end of this.

PI encourages others to buy in so he can get out on the spike. Don’t forget to sell PI

GB1 At what price do you predict?

“But if you look closely it isn't that inflation is falling but only that the rate of increase in inflation is slowing while we still remain higher than previous years”.
That fella has been watching to many episodes of QI.

JDC - Why would they sell in this environment?, unlikely to get full value.

He just pre running the chart, I’ll take 4.30 no problems. Yes please!

19-Dec-22 13:06:01 53.69 2,000 Buy* 1,074

Nor do I tell people what to do with their money.
Time will tell which opposing opinion is correct.
Hope it works out for you.

And just one more thing PI, trying to ramp an encourage others to investing in a company which in all likelihood is going to the wall to get you out of a mess of your own making just isn’t cricket.(I’m being polite). Own it, learn from it.

I’m sure you will let me know if I’m off base. However it is not what your postings suggest.

PI - i haven’t seen anyone say that you are not allowed an opinion. I am certainly not saying you are not allowed an opinion. Differing opinions is what makes a good discussion board. Some of it is relevant, factual, with an agenda and some of it is not. As individuals we have to sift through the discussions to find the quality.

PI - ‘ I have a lot of money invested in ARB, including £300k profit I’ve made on other shares over the last 12 months.’
So now we know why your on trying to encourage others to invest with your ramping, of a company which by all intent and purposes is a dead duck. But I sure you are still averaging at 1p right. :)

REFILE-U.S. begins buying back oil for strategic reserve - official
WASHINGTON, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The U.S. Energy Department said on Friday it will begin repurchasing crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the first purchase since this year’s record 180 million barrel release from the stockpile.

The department will buy 3 million barrels for delivery in February, a senior official told reporters.